Tuesday, February 23, 2016

'16 Playoff Predictions - #2 Defending Champions, Team Penetration versus #7 Pippen Aint Eazy

Fantasy Points Per Week: PENE – 972, PEZY – 917
Fantasy Points Per Game: PENE – 28.4, MIN – 28.3
Games In Week One: PENE – 32, PEZY – 35
Projected Games in Week Two: PENE – 39, MIN – 35

Personnel Notes:
PENE – Eric Gordon (Out 2 to 4 weeks), Norris Cole (Added 1/31/16), Steven Adams (Added 1/31/16), and Gerald Henderson (Added 2/21/16)
PEZY – Tyreke Evans (Out for Season), Danny Green (Added 2/14/16)

Whose superstars will reign supreme?
I don't know if I've ever been more excited for a playoff series that I was not involved in. Over the 4 regular seasons of our dynasty league, these two teams have consistently been contenders. In those 4 years, The Defending Champs have averaged 918 fantasy points a week while Pippen Aint Eazy has averaged 932. Both of these teams have made the playoffs all for years and of the 21 total playoff wins available so far, these two teams account for 9 of them.

And yet, they have never met in the playoffs before.

Pippen Aint Eazy has had some rotten luck this year. Despite putting up the third most fantasy points on the year, they are somehow 7th in the standings. You could say Our Defending Champions are experiencing some bad luck too, considering they have to play such a big threat so early in the playoffs.

These two teams have almost identical fantasy production on a per game basis, but Team Penetration has the edge when we look at points per week. I suspect this is because of Michael's ability to find solid streaming options for the weaker parts of his lineup. What this means is that guys like Alex Len and Enes Kanter may be dragging down Team Penetration's FPPG, but they are being maximized by being played only on weeks where they have a lot of games. Meanwhile, Pippen Aint Eazy has a much more solidified starting lineup and we can probably expect Freddy to rely on the same 10 guys the rest of the way.

So how will these two different styles play out? It's all going to come down to whose Big 3 performs better. Just last week, we saw what kind of superstar strength these two teams have with Lillard throwing up 70 fantasy points last Friday and Anthony Davis topping that two days later with 86. No offense to the other 14 guys involved in this match up, but when you are dealing with numbers that high, its hard to see production of Jae Crowder or Zaza Pachulia as the deal breakers.

Over the next two weeks DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden, and Anthony Davis play a total of 20 games while Paul George, Steph Curry, and Damian Lillard are playing 23. That may not seem like much, but those are 3 extra opportunities for a 50+ game. That alone is going to be tough for the Defending Champions to overcome.

In addition all that, Pippen Aint Eazy actually has the overall game advantage this week and, while Team Penetration is set to make that up next week, Pippen Aint Eazy always has the option of making some lineup changes to sustain or even improve that advantage.

With two team this elite and this comparable on paper, it's the details that make the difference. It's going to be a barn burner and it is going to be close as hell, but my money is always going to be on the game advantage.

Prediction: Pippen Aint Eazy

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