Monday, August 1, 2016

2016 Rookie Draft Winners


Last year was one of the most exciting seasons of fantasy sports I have ever been a part of. Broken records, close finishes and a variety of differently-styled teams blossoming had me completely immersed. Despite this, I actually expect this upcoming season to be an even wilder ride. 

We have strong, creative owners across the board. We have almost every team in some sort of healthy state. And most importantly, with our 5th season (The wooden anniversary) upon us, this league has truly grown to become the Dynasty League I had once dreamed of being a part of (Just another reason why you guys rock).

My mentality as an owner has changed so much now from where it was during our inaugural season. How I value players, how I view their contracts, how patient I'm willing to be with a prospect. I am now much more concerned with the seasons beyond just the one that is upcoming. I value my team's 3 year plan.

I am sure that I am not alone in feeling this way.

Which brings me to our recent rule change: incoming rookies no longer take up keeper spots. This is about to change the game in a big way. It greatly increases the value of keeping rookies. This, in turn, increases our willingness to give rookies extended chances. I predict this rule change will cause a league-wide step towards emphasizing 3 year plans over 1 year plans.

All this is to say that Rookies are hot right now. So hot that the Rookie Draft is suddenly more important than the Auction Draft. This is, no doubt, the most important Rookie Draft in the history of the Juicy Basketballs League.

Here is who I think advanced their dynasty's cause the furthest last Thursday night and why:

Chris (Team nipple)

Like it:
Drafting Buddy Hield at #4 - Buddy Hield just finished his Senior year of college. Many of his lottery companions were recently freshmen. What that means is that what he brings to the table is more polished and more likely to produce while also being more similar to his eventual peak. He seems to be the high floor, low ceiling candidate of this year's draft; the surest shot. The Defending Champion is doing what a defending champion does. The best team in the league took the guy who is most NBA ready and already has a starting position on lockdown in New Orleans. He could be end up being what New Orleans always wanted Eric Gordon to be: a steady shooting scorer from the wing who plays more than 55 games a season.
The perfect fit for The Defending Champion who is looking for good, cost-efficient value to build around his superstars.

Brett (Balls to the Wall)

Like it:
Receiving $15 for #20 - The second round has a low success rate. In the past, the majority have not even been selected as keepers, making them ultimately worthless. To get any sort of value from a second rounder is a win. Free Agent cash is an undervalued asset in my opinion. The $15 he got here can turn into almost anything. Draymond Green has been picked up for less. Rudy Gay has been traded for about as much.
This was the most improved team last year. I see this trade as a good investment into continuing that improvement.

Love it:
Receiving Harrison Barnes and #9 for #8 - Brett got Harrison Barnes for the difference between Marquese Chriss and Thon Maker... whatever that is.
I see Balls to the Wall as a threat to make the Finals next year. I think Barnes is a good value choice for his situation and Brett got him for next to nothing.

Rich (MAMA said Knock u out)

Like it:
Drafting Dejoute Murray at #17 - This might look like nothing but with Duncan retiring, the baton has been passed in San Antonio. Tony Parker's eventual decline has been a long time coming. George Hill once made a fantasy living as a combo guard for San Antonio and Parker was much younger then. Murray was someone who many believe slid on the actual NBA draft night, resulting in a steal for San Antonio. Maybe he has the chops.
Rich has proven himself to be a patient owner who has enough firepower in his starting lineup to take a chance on someone who doesn't cost him a dollar or take up a keeper spot. Great fit.

Drafting Jaylen Brown at #5 - Jaylen Brown is in the unique situation of being the only NBA lottery pick that will be playing for a defending playoff team. His talent is high but his opportunity is currently cloudy. That can scare people away. But Brad Stevens has been a coach to find (and use) his players' strengths while Danny Ainge has proven to cultivate his lineup for the future whenever he can. Maybe Crowder gets traded. Maybe Brown fills the role that Evan Turner is leaving behind. Maybe both.
Rich has been a master of finding the balance between competing for this year and next. Brown might be able to help on both fronts.

Love it:
Drafting Jamal Murray at #7 - I had Jamal Murray at #4 on my draft board. I have seen him be compared to both Austin Rivers and CJ McCollum. I'm optimistic. In Denver, he has all the opportunity in the world to play next to Mudiay as the Nuggets will likely be out of contention early and rebuilding for the future. He may struggle at first but I can see him averaging close to 20 or so FPPG by the end of the upcoming season, which wouldn't be bad for a 19 year old drafted at #7.

Tyler (Blow Me)

Like it:
Drafting Bismack Biyombo at #16 - I officially don't know what the hell Orlando is doing. I loved when they had Payton, Oladipo, Gordon, Harris and Vucevic as their 5. They've somehow traded away 40% of that and seem intent on trading away at least 20% more in Vucevic. With starter's minutes, Biyombo should be able to average around a double-double. That sort of consistency is what everyone is looking for in their front line.
Tyler has a team that I see in the playoffs as soon as next season. Biyombo may very well be an important rotation player for Tyler throughout this season.


Drafting Eric Gordon at #14 - Say what you will about Gordon's injury history but you cannot deny that he possesses offensive talent when he is on the court. He averaged over 21 fantasy points a game last year. He is on a better team, in a role that should suit him (potential 6th man of the year according to Daryl Morey), and he will be playing for one of the most fantasy friendly coaches around.
Much like Biyombo, I see Gordon filling a very crucial role for Tyler this coming season. Don't forget, Eric Gordon was once the highest paid fantasy player in our league. Now he is on a $0, keeperless contract. He may not have ever lived up to his all-star expectation but value is undeniably there.

Love it:
Drafting Ben Simmons at #1 - Ultimately, I think we all want our favorite players on our fantasy teams. It's just more fun that way. Getting to cheer for the same guy because he gets you fantasy points and because he is your favorite player is a unique joy. I have little doubt in my mind that Brandon Ingram will one day become one of Tyler's favorite players. I suspect Tyler feels the same way. On top of that, Ingram clearly has superstar potential. I can only imagine how hard this decision must have been for Tyler. From the outside, the #1 selection may seem like a lay-up, but I think Tyler hit a home run. Ben Simmons' floor is Lamar Odom. That's really high. His ceiling is Magic Johnson. That's even higher. I believe having Ben Simmons on a $10 rookie contract is instantly one of the best assets in our entire league. Tyler has his superstar for years to come.

Monty (Basket Brawlers)

Like it:
Receiving a 2017 1st rounder for #14 & #16 - Monty's team has quickly become a contender for most exciting team of the future. I'm not sure what direction he is going to take the team in but as of right now, it looks like his options are almost unlimited. He could make a push for the playoffs, with the rights moves maybe even the finals or he could concern himself with building around the likes of Ingram, Russell, Dunn, and Payton (Four NBA starters under 23 years old). Maybe he goes for all of the above. Either way, I am a huge fan of first rounders and even though I expect Tyler to make the pick less valuable than most, this is a piece that fits in line with that Ingram-Russell-Dunn-Payton core.
It looked like Monty had too many picks. He was able to flip that excess into something with lasting value.

Love it:
Drafting Kris Dunn at #3 - All aboard the Kris Dunn hype train. This guy is good. He is a triple-double waiting to happen. Yes, maybe he and Rubio get in each others' way for a time but talented players find their way onto the floor and I believe Dunn has the talent. He dominated the Big East, he challenged his fellow lottery prospects to 1-on-1 NBA workouts, he dominated Summer League. Besides Ingram and Simmons, Dunn is the only guy from this draft class that has both ROY and eventual All-Star potential.



Drafting Brandon Ingram at #2 - Brandon Ingram is being pegged as the offensive wing threat of the Lakers' future. Luke Walton has already publicly complimented his basketball IQ (One of the most important skills for an NBA player to have). The opportunity is wide open for him to take the reigns and become the face of his team. All signs point to Ingram becoming a franchise player, in both the NBA and in the Juicy Basketballs League.
This is a great fit for Monty and the structure of his fantasy team. Much like Simmons, I believe Ingram's rookie contract will soon become one of the most valuable assets around.