Monday, November 23, 2015

Week 4 Power Rankings

Week 4 Power Rankings

 Before we get into things, I want to show you guys something:

This is a typical Bell Curve. It is a visualization of most data distributions (a frequency map). The middle (0) is the exact average. The curve drops down on either side (as the numbers get further away from 0), displaying that the further you get away from the average, the rarer you become.

The season is early, but this is my best statistical guess of how good your team looks this year. It is meant to be unbiased, but, of course, it is based off of what my biases consider important.


The data pool is small, the science is imperfect, and I have a degree in Kinesiology. Here we go ;)
  • #12 - Nick Coromelas: -1.42
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.70
    •  Record: 0-4
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -1.60
    •  Games Played: -2.30
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -1.26
  • #11 - Rich Mamaradlo: -1.15
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.08
    •  Record: 0-4
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -1.11
    •  Games Played: 0.58
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -1.39
  • #10 - David Huckobey: -1.13
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -1.15
    •  Record: 1-3
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -1.28
    •  Games Played: -0.38
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -1.37
  • #9 - Brett Lakey: -0.34
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -1.74
    •  Record: 3-1
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -0.67
    •  Games Played: -0.86
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -0.52
  • #8 - Brett Hoxie: -0.26
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.51
    •  Record: 1-3
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -0.12
    •  Games Played: -0.14
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -0.09
  • #7 - Danny Leong: 0.06
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.16
    •  Record: 2-2
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.08
    •  Games Played: -0.14
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.15
  • #6 - Matt Wong: 0.20
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 1.19
    •  Record: 2-2
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.18
    •  Games Played: 1.30
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -0.14
  • #5 - Freddy Cruz: 0.48
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -1.34
    •  Record: 3-1
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.54
    •  Games Played: -0.62
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.83
  • #4 - Nathaniel Coromelas: 0.54
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.11
    •  Record: 3-1
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.48
    •  Games Played: 0.1
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.53
  • #3 - Michael Johnson: 0.59
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 1.17
    •  Record: 2-2
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.78
    •  Games Played: 0.58
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.73
  • #2 - August Keller: 0.93
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.94
    •  Record: 3-1
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.99
    •  Games Played: 1.30
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.75
  • #1 - Chris Nelson: 1.51
    •  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -0.63
    •  Record: 4-0
    •  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 1.73
    •  Games Played: 0.58
    • Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 1.79

Monday, November 2, 2015

Week 1 FPPG Rankings

Hello everyone, I hope you're doing well! What I have for you today is a ranking of everyone's fantasy points per game for the first week of this year. I imagine this is a much better way of measuring where you stand with everyone this year.

Just to give you a few reference points, here are a few marks based off of the 3 completed seasons of this league so far:
-The average team has finished the season with 23.76 FPPG
-The average playoff team finished the season with 24.87 FPPG
-The average top 3 teams from each year finished with 26.55 FPPG

I would also like to point out that there is a lot more to all of this than just FPPG. Bench, injury concerns, contracts, youth, and free agency all play factors in all this.

Anyways, without further ado...

#12 – Rich (MAMA) – 20.0 FPPG

Highlights: Horford (4 games, 132 points) and Chris Paul (3 games, 92 points)
Lowlights: Stanley Johnson (3 games, 42 points) and Joakim Noah (4 games, 56 points)

The most disappointing thing here is probably Thompson (17 FPPG), honestly. But we all know that isn't going to last. Noah's new role in Chicago is definitely cause for concern, especially with Mirotic playing the way he has. Overall though, a lot of this can be chalked up to variance and should be taken with a grain of salt.


#11 – David (BB) – 22.1 FPPG

Highlights: Millsap (4 games, 136 points) and Kevin Love (3 games, 113 points)
Lowlights: Kyle Korver (4 games, 45 points) and Mitch McGary (3 games, -2 points)

If anything, the fact that this team was able to finish in any place besides 12th bodes well for the 9 starters that weren't McGary (Those guys averaged 24.7 FPPG, which would have placed this team at 7th). Once this team fixes that issue at Center, it should be back in this.

#10 – Brett Lakey (WO) – 23.5 FPPG

Highlights: Mirotic (4 games, 108 points) and Kyle Lowry (3 games, 102)
Lowlights: Wiggins (2 games, 29 points) and Doug McDermott (4 games, 39 points)

Very interesting start for the most intriguing team in the league. Sporting some of the most promising young players there are (Wiggins, Okafor, and MCW), things are all over the place. Young guys are inconsistent by nature and this is a small sample size. Only time will tell as these guys play into their NBA games.

#9 – Daniel (MIN) – 23.58 FPPG

Highlights: DeRozan (3 games, 97 points) and Bledsoe (3 games, 101 points)
Lowlights: David Lee (3 games, 42 points) and Evan Turner (3 games, 28 points)

Boston is a fantasy nightmare right now (outside of Thomas, that is) and that has definitely affected poor Danny, here. Also, his guys all played 3 games which might have something to do with them not playing their best (less games to find a rhythm).

#8 – Matt (MONT) – 24.4 FPPG

Highlights: Pau Gasol (4 games, 114 points) and LeBron James (3 games, 107 points)
Lowlights: Trevor Ariza (3 games, 54 points) and Tony Parker (3 games, 36 points)

The first thing I notice when looking at this roster is how many role players there are. Everyone needs role players to fill out their roster and none of these role players are particularly bad in their own right, but there seems to be a few too much on this roster. The team just lacks a little bite at the moment. If Matt wants to see this ranking go up at all, he may need to find a way to trade up a few of his guys.

#7 – Nick (TAD) – 24.7 FPPG

Highlights: Vucevic (3 games, 104 points) and Greg Monroe (3 games, 112 points)
Lowlights: Jrue Holiday (2 games, 40 points) and Parsons (1 games, 10 points)

There were some injuries here that clearly affected things. Besides Freddy, this team clocked the fewest games. Those two facts simply add to already long shadow that variance casts. As of right now, this team strikes me as the standard for “league average”, but obviously that could change.

#6 – Michael (PENE) – 25.2 FPPG

Highlights: Cousins (3 games, 110 points) and Anthony Davis (3 games, 120 points)
Lowlights: Meyers Leonard (3 games, 42 points) and Paul Pierce (3 games, 37 points)

A rather ho-hum start for the defending champs. Now, obviously 25.2 and #6 are nothing to be ashamed of, but my standards for Michael are high. Harden had a tough week (by his standards). But maybe the fact that he drafted Paul Pierce caused a rip in the universe and gave him some bad ju-ju.

#5 – Brett Hoxie (BLOW) – 25.3 FPPG

Highlights: Kawhi Leonard (3 games, 109 points) and Blake Griffin (3 games, 138 points)
Lowlights: Ty Lawson (3 games, 50 points) and Mario Hezonja (3 games, 16 points)

Outside of Hezonja, this team average 27.6 FPPG which speaks volumes for how good this team could be very soon. Once Brett figures out that last swingman spot, he will be sitting pretty. Griffin is playing like an absolute monster so far.

#4 – Nate (PF) – 27.3 FPPG

Highlights: Carmelo (3 games, 112 points) and Favors (3 games, 115 points)
Lowlights: Porzingis (3 games, 59 points) and Danny Green (3 games, 47 points)

What's impressive about this team is how strong the “Lowlights” are. Porzingis still averaged nearly 20 FPPG after all. This may a bit early to claim, but clearly this is one of the teams to look out for this year, seeing as they might have a strong shot at the title.

#3 – Gus (8==D) – 27.96 FPPG

Highlights: DeAndre Jordan (3 games, 110 points) and John Wall (3 games, 114 points)
Lowlights: Tim Duncan (3 games, 64 points) and Monta Ellis (3 games, 50 points)

I'm never a fan of analyzing my own team in these things... so I won't ;)

#2 – Freddy (PEZY) – 28.0 FPPG

Highlights: STEPH FUCKING CURRY (3 games, 166 points) and Damien Lillard (3 games, 100 points)
Lowlights: P.J. Tucker (3 games, 24 points) and Wilson Chandler (0 games, 0 points)

Leave it to Freddy to have one of the most promising 0-1 starts in our league's history. The most optimistic thing about this good situation is how easily Freddy can upgrade. Just looking at his lowlights, I'm sure he can fix that with his bench alone, not to mention a couple FA pickups. Oh btw, Steph Curry is a goddamn beast.

#1 – Chris (NIPP) – 34.6 FPPG

Highlights: Andre Drummond (3 games, 132 points) and Russell Westbrook (3 games, 149 points)
Lowlights: Antetokounmpo (2 games, 71 points) and Tyson Chandler (3 games, 67 points)

If anyone is curious about who the team to beat is, here you go. It is always important to not overreact to the first week of fantasy, but just look at that FPPG. His team is literally an outlier. If you take the average of everyone else in Week 1, you get 24.7 FPPG. Meaning, Chris is beating the rest of us by about 10 fantasy points per game. No big deal.


Here's a chart!