Tuesday, February 23, 2016

'16 Playoff Predicitions - #1 Team nipple versus #8 Make It Nashty

Fantasy Points Per Week: NIPP – 1076, MIN – 870
Fantasy Points Per Game: NIPP – 31.5, MIN – 26.9
Games In Week One: NIPP – 33, MIN – 35
Projected Games in Week Two: NIPP – 35, MIN – 36

Personnel Notes:
NIPP – Jimmy Butler (Out 2 to 3 weeks), Jamal Crawford (Added 2/7/16), Jerami Grant (Added 2/14/16), and Lance Stephenson (Added 2/12/16)
MIN – Eric Bledsoe (Out for Season), Rajon Rondo (Acquired in trade involving Devin Booker)

Will the addition of Rondo and the subtraction of Butler make a big enough impact?

It was February 23rd of 2015 when Round One of our beloved Fantasy Playoffs began and it was on that day that these two teams met as the 2-7 matchup. Team nipple had finished the season with a 12-4 record and had put up a combined 2188 total fantasy points over the final two weeks of the regular season. Meanwhile, Make It Nashty finished with a much less impressive 7-9 record and a total of 1432 fantasy points in that same stretch.

For those of you who don't remember (David) or those of you who choose to forget (Chris), the result over the next two weeks told a much different story. Team nipple was slammed with an almost comical amount of injuries that were exemplified by the absence of both Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant. While Make It Nashty was experiencing a rather warm streak (with nobody contributing less than 134 fantasy points over the two week span), Team nipple saw dud performances from Andrea Bargnani (67 points), Jusuf Nurkic (39 points) and Tyson Chandler (16 points). Despite a superhuman showing from Russell Westbrook (398 points), Make It Nashty was able to execute the upset by putting up 1921 fantasy points to Team nipple's 1814.

A lot has changed in a year. Team nipple has only furthered its cause, completing possibly the most dominate regular season this league has ever seen. Improving in every category with a record of 15-1, a season average of 1076 fantasy points per week and 2426 fantasy points over the final two weeks. In comparison, Make It Nashty is sporting a record of 7-9, a season average of 870, and a total of 1786 points in those same two weeks.

But is upset magic in the air once again? In the last few weeks, we've seen a swing of Team nipple losing Jimmy Butler and Make It Nashty adding Rajon Rondo. Those are two rather significant sources of fantasy points (with Butler averaging 34.9 on the year and Rondo averaging 32.8) and should not be taken lightly. Also MIN seems to have the advantage on games once again, although it is a slim advantage.

Despite all that, I do not think history will be repeating itself. While Butler's injury is certainly a blow, Jamal Crawford has stepped in nicely (averaging 26.8 fantasy points over the last two weeks) as a temporary solution. And while Rondo and the game advantage will be nice boosts that will definitely make this matchup exciting for a time, I do not think they will be enough to overcome the likes of Andre Drummond, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook.

Prediction: Team nipple

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