Saturday, June 16, 2018

2018 NBA Statistical Review (Southwest Division)

Intro

Using basketball-reference.com I gathered the regular season totals of all players who logged at least 150 minutes (a set of 437 players) this 2017-18 season. I then examined each players' total output in the nine categories commonly used in the fantasy basketball community (3-points made, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points, field goal %, and free throw %). I calculated the z-scores (the amount of standard deviations away from the mean the datum is) of each player's category to equalize all numbers and give a clear score of how each player performed in each category on the year.

I then took the average of each players' set of nine z-scores to give them their "9-cat average". I also took averages of each players' best eight z-scores (dropping their worst category) to give them their "8-best average". I also calculated everyone's fantasy points per game (based off of FanDuel's scoring system) to give a per-game perspective.

My overall rankings (and total work) can be see here, but the highlights of the Southwest Division follow...

Also, check out the Eastern Conference (AtlanticCentral and Southeast) divisions by following the links.


Dallas Mavericks

61. Dirk Nowitzki
Age: 39 - Games: 77
Points: 927 (0.733) - Rebounds: 438 (1.022)
Assists: 120 (-0.079) - 3P Made: 138 (1.358)
Steals: 43 (-0.002) - Blocks: 45 (0.647)
Turnovers: 51 (0.424) - FT%: 0.898 (1.290)
FG%: 0.456 (-0.008)
FanDuel PPG: 23.97
9-Cat Average: 0.598
8-Best Average: 0.683

-As shocking as it may be, Dirk Nowitzki was able to be the highest ranking Maverick despite being 39 years young. Dirk played 77 games this season which allowed him to get a pleasantly high amount of rebound, threes and blocks while maintaining great efficiencies. We can't expect much from Dirk going forward but this year was great to see.

86. Harrison Barnes
Age: 25 - Games: 77
Points: 1452 (1.891) - Rebounds: 468 (1.179)
Assists: 152 (0.175) - 3P Made: 119 (1.032)
Steals: 49 (0.118) - Blocks: 14 (-0.459)
Turnovers: 118 (-0.697) - FT%: 0.827 (0.670)
FG%: 0.445 (-0.162)
FanDuel PPG: 30.03
9-Cat Average: 0.424
8-Best Average: 0.564

-Harrison Barnes can get rebounds, hit threes and score. While he does all those things well and on good efficiencies, the lack of meat in his other categories leaves his game feeling incomplete. It may be unfair to gripe about Barnes, who is a quality starter, and his youth does give space for improvement, but the absence of blocks, assists and steals are noticeable. 

129. Dennis Smith Jr.
Age: 20 - Games: 69
Points: 1048 (1.000) - Rebounds: 260 (0.089)
Assists: 358 (1.809) - 3P Made: 106 (0.810)
Steals: 71 (0.882) - Blocks: 18 (-0.317)
Turnovers: 195 (-1.986) - FT%: 0.694 (-0.490)
FG%: 0.395 (-0.864)
FanDuel PPG: 28.54
9-Cat Average: 0.104
8-Best Average: 0.365

-It was a pretty good rookie season for Dennis Smith Jr. because of his high amount of points, assists, threes and steals. DSJ's efficiencies were bad but that is to be expected from a person Smith's age. I have no doubt in my mind that Dennis Smith will be in the top 50 within the next few seasons.


Houston Rockets

3. James Harden
Age: 28 - Games: 72
Points: 2191 (3.522) - Rebounds: 389 (0.765)
Assists: 630 (3.967) - 3P Made: 265 (3.531)
Steals: 126 (2.619) - Blocks: 50 (0.826)
Turnovers: 315 (-3.994) - FT%: 0.858 (0.941)
FG%: 0.449 (-0.106)
FanDuel PPG: 53.00
9-Cat Average: 1.341
8-Best Average: 2.008

-It was another monster season for the MVP favorite, James Harden. In the thick of his prime, Harden produced outlier levels in points, assists, and threes while providing an elite number of steals as well. Considering James did this all while coming in above-average (sans one highly-droppable category) and there is no wonder why Harden is the runaway MVP candidate. 

22. Clint Capela
Age: 23 - Games: 74
Points: 1026 (0.951) - Rebounds: 802 (2.929)
Assists: 68 (-0.491) - 3P Made: 0 (-1.004)
Steals: 58 (0.472) - Blocks: 137 (3.932)
Turnovers: 103 (-0.446) - FT%: 0.560 (-1.660)
FG%: 0.652 (2.745)
FanDuel PPG: 34.76
9-Cat Average: 0.825
8-Best Average: 1.136

-Seeing Clint Capela ranked this highly may be rather surprising to many but the young man has become one of the best at what he does. Capela may be limited in three key categories but he is one of the best rebounders, blockers, and field goal shooters around. With Clint's young age, it is possible that he can still improve as well.

28. Chris Paul
Age: 32 - Games: 58
Points: 1081 (1.073) - Rebounds: 313 (0.367)
Assists: 457 (2.595) - 3P Made: 144 (1.460)
Steals: 96 (1.672) - Blocks: 14 (-0.459)
Turnovers: 128 (-0.865) - FT%: 0.919 (1.473)
FG%: 0.460 (0.049)
FanDuel PPG: 40.42
9-Cat Average: 0.818
8-Best Average: 1.029

-Chris Paul was not able to play 60 games this season but was still able to rank in the top 30 players of the year. As CP3 enters the twilight of his career, he is still able to provide elite assists, free throws, steals and threes. If Paul can ever play 70+ games again, there is a chance he could break back into the top 20, though his age/history makes that difficult to count on.


Memphis Grizzlies 

23. Marc Gasol
Age: 33 - Games: 73
Points: 1258 (1.463) - Rebounds: 592 (1.829)
Assists: 305 (1.389) - 3P Made: 109 (0.861)
Steals: 54 (0.345) - Blocks: 101 (2.647)
Turnovers: 194 (-1.969) - FT%: 0.834 (0.732)
FG%: 0.420 (-0.513)
FanDuel PPG: 36.94
9-Cat Average: 0.754
8-Best Average: 1.094

-Marc Gasol may be reaching the twilight of his career but he has done much in recent years to make his game more interesting than ever. Gasol was above-average in six categories this season while providing an elite level of blocks. Because Marc is already into his 30s, his game is bound to a step backwards eventually but the Gasols have proven to stave off father time.

118. Tyreke Evans
Age: 28 - Games: 52
Points: 1010 (0.916) - Rebounds: 265 (0.116)
Assists: 269 (1.103) - 3P Made: (-0.352)
Steals: 57 (0.440) - Blocks: 17 (-0.352)
Turnovers: 117 (-0.681) - FT%: 0.785 (0.304)
FG%: 0.452 (-0.064)
FanDuel PPG: 35.32
9-Cat Average: 0.303
8-Best Average: 0.426

-It was comeback season for Tyreke Evans who put up high quality points and assists while shooting decent percentages given his volume. As usual, the catch with Evans will always be the amount of games he is able to play. Tyreke is still in his prime but his injury history is always going to be a question for him to answer.

177. Dillon Brooks
Age: 22 - Games: 82
Points: 898 (0.669) - Rebounds: 257 (0.074)
Assists: 135 (0.040) - 3P Made: 94 (0.604)
Steals: 73 (0.945) - Blocks: 17 (-0.352)
Turnovers: 124 (-0.798) - FT%: 0.747 (-0.028)
FG%: 0.440 (-0.232)
FanDuel PPG: 18.96
9-Cat Average: 0.103
8-Best Average: 0.215

-Dillon Brooks came on strong, especially down the end of his rookie season. While the numbers may seem relatively muted, Brooks produced a surprisingly high amount of points, threes and steals while maintaining good stats everywhere else as well. Given Dillon's age and Memphis' need for production, I expect Brooks to take another step forward next season.



New Orleans Pelicans

2. Anthony Davis
Age: 24 - Games: 75
Points: 2110 (3.343) - Rebounds: 832 (3.087)
Assists: 174 (0.350) - 3P Made: 55 (-0.063)
Steals: 115 (2.272) - Blocks: 193 (5.931)
Turnovers: 162 (-1.434) - FT%: 0.828 (0.679)
FG%: 0.534 (1.088)
FanDuel PPG: 55.09
9-Cat Average: 1.695
8-Best Average: 2.086

-Anthony Davis was arguably the best individual statistical player this season due to his extreme outlier in blocks, points and rebounds. Davis was also able to produce elite steals and an above-average field goal percentage. Given that AD's is still rather young, there is a chance his best years are ahead of him (if you can imagine that).

13. Jrue Holiday
Age: 27 - Games: 81
Points: 1537 (2.079) - Rebounds: 365 (0.640)
Assists: 486 (2.825) - 3P Made: 120 (1.049)
Steals: 123 (2.524) - Blocks: 64 (1.326)
Turnovers: 213 (-2.287) - FT%: 0.786 (0.313)
FG%: 0.494 (0.526)
FanDuel PPG: 37.68
9-Cat Average: 0.999
8-Best Average: 1.410

-The underrated king this season is Jrue Holiday because he produced elite points, steals and assists with above-average threes. Holiday was also a solid source of rebounds, blocks and percentages, which makes him an all-around asset. Jrue is in the middle of his prime so this might be his career year but next season should be similar (though his injury history makes me skeptical that he can repeat 81 games).

33. DeMarcus Cousins
Age: 27 - Games: 48
Points: 1210 (1.357) - Rebounds: 617 (1.960)
Assists: 257 (1.008) - 3P Made: 104 (0.776)
Steals: 79 (1.135) - Blocks: 76 (1.754)
Turnovers: 242 (-2.772) - FT%: 0.746 (-0.036)
FG%: 0.470 (0.189)
FanDuel PPG: 53.31
9-Cat Average: 0.597
8-Best Average: 1.018

-Boogie Cousins was having a monster statistical season before it was cut short by injury. Even though he play about half the season, Cousins still produced well above-average points, rebounds, assists, threes, blocks and steals. It is safe to say that DeMarcus can do it all if he can stay on the floor. Cousins is in the middle of his prime so his return from injury should be similar to what he was before.


San Antonio Spurs

35. LaMarcus Aldridge
Age: 32 - Games: 75
Points: 1735 (2.516) - Rebounds: 635 (2.054)
Assists: 152 (0.175) - 3P Made: 27 (-0.542)
Steals: 43 (-0.002) - Blocks: 90 (2.254)
Turnovers: 111 (-0.580) - FT%: 0.837 (0.758)
FG%: 0.510 (0.751)
FanDuel PPG: 40.17
9-Cat Average: 0.820
8-Best Average: 0.995

-LeMarcus Aldridge had another strong season with powerful levels of points, blocks and rebounds on quality percentages. Aldridge may not help much in any other areas but he is not much of a negative either. Due to LeMarcus' relatively advanced age, I suspect a gradual decline to persist going forward, though San Antonio is known for prolonging careers.

66. Kyle Anderson
Age: 24 - Games: 74
Points: 585 (-0.022) - Rebounds: 396 (0.802)
Assists: 202 (0.572) - 3P Made: 19 (-0.679)
Steals: 115 (2.272) - Blocks: 60 (1.183)
Turnovers: 94 (-0.296) - FT%: 0.712 (-.333)
FG%: 0.527 (0.989)
FanDuel PPG: 24.25
9-Cat Average: 0.499
8-Best Average: 0.646

-It was a mini-breakout season for Kyle Anderson who was given a surprise amount of responsibility and handled it all well. Anderson contributes good rebounds and defensive stats while shooting well from the field. Because Kyle Anderson is only 24, there is opportunity for his game to take another step forward but that is growing unlikely.

153. Dejounte Murray
Age: 21 - Games: 81
Points: 654 (0.131) - Rebounds: 459 (1.132)
Assists: 231 (0.802) - 3P Made: 9 (-0.850)
Steals: 97 (1.703) - Blocks: 31 (0.147)
Turnovers: 134 (-0.965) - FT%: 0.709 (-0.359)
FG%: 0.443 (-0.190)
FanDuel PPG: 22.24
9-Cat Average: 0.172
8-Best Average: 0.314

-Dejounte Murray had a nice sophomore year and stepped into a bigger role well enough. Murray is good for steals, assists and rebounds but is still working on contributing in other categories. Because Dejounte is so young, it seems inevitable for his growth to continue. I am high on Dejounte Murray and believe he should be in the top 100 next year.