Wednesday, May 9, 2018

2018 NBA Statistical Review (Southeast Division)

Intro

Using basketball-reference.com I gathered the regular season totals of all players who logged at least 150 minutes (a set of 437 players) this 2017-18 season. I then examined each players' total output in the nine categories commonly used in the fantasy basketball community (3-points made, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points, field goal %, and free throw %). I calculated the z-scores (the amount of standard deviations away from the mean the datum is) of each player's category to equalize all numbers and give a clear score of how each player performed in each category on the year.

I then took the average of each players' set of nine z-scores to give them their "9-cat average". I also took averages of each players' best eight z-scores (dropping their worst category) to give them their "8-best average". I also calculated everyone's fantasy points per game (based off of FanDuel's scoring system) to give a per-game perspective.

My overall rankings (and total work) can be seen here, but the highlights of the Southeast Division follow...

Also, check out the Atlantic and Central divisions by following the links.


Atlanta Hawks

44. Taurean Prince
Age: 23 - Games: 82
Points: 1158 (1.243) - Rebounds: 389 (0.765)
Assists: 214 (0.667) - 3P Made: 176 (2.008)
Steals: 85 (1.324) - Blocks: 42 (0.540)
Turnovers: 191 (-1.919) - FT%: 0.844 (0.819)
FG%: 0.426 (-0.429)
FanDuel PPG: 26.05
9-Cat Average: 0.558
8-Best Average: 0.867

-Taurean Prince had good months and bad months this season, which can be excused a bit due to his younger age. Overall though, Prince put up above-average numbers in seven categories. I believe Prince has enough diversity in his game to be a quality rotation player for the next several years.

79. Dennis Schroder
Age: 24 - Games: 67
Points: 1301 (1.558) - Rebounds: 208 (-0.183)
Assists: 417 (2.278) - 3P Made: 76 (0.914)
Steals: 72 (2.398) - Blocks: 6 (-0.745)
Turnovers: 183 (-1.785) - FT%: 0.849 (0.862)
FG%: 0.436 (-0.288)
FanDuel PPG: 33.24
9-Cat Average: 0.323
8-Best Average: 0.586

-It was a muted season for Dennis Schroder who just missed the 70 games played mark. Schroder performs well in the typical point-guard categories (assists, steals, and shooting) and is elite enough where I do think he could crack the top 40 if he plays a full season. The flames may have cooled on Schroder but I think he still has a few exciting years ahead of him.

81. John Collins
Age: 20 - Games: 74
Points: 777 (0.402) - Rebounds: 541 (1.562)
Assists: 98 (-0.253) - 3P Made: 16 (-0.730)
Steals: 47 (0.124) - Blocks: 80 (1.897)
Turnovers: 105 (-0.480) - FT%: 0.715 (-0.307)
FG%: 0.576 (1.678)
FanDuel PPG: 24.99
9-Cat Average: 0.432
8-Best Average: 0.578

-The apple of Atlanta's eye, John Collins had a very strong rookie season. Collins was able to submit above-average rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage while showing promise in other categories as well. Given Collins' age, there is a lot to get excited about here.


Charlotte Hornets

17. Kemba Walker
Age: 27 - Games: 80
Points: 1770 (2.593) - Rebounds: 247 (0.021)
Assists: 444 (2.492) - 3P Made: 231 (2.949)
Steals: 91 (1.514) - Blocks: 24 (-0.102)
Turnovers: 179 (-1.718) - FT%: 0.864 (0.993)
FG%: 0.431 (-0.359)
FanDuel PPG: 36.23
9-Cat Average: 0.931
8-Best Average: 1.263

-It was another great year for Kemba Walker who continues to fly under the radar due to the minimal success of his team overall. Walker gave elite levels in three categories and above-average numbers in two others. This is Kemba's prime so I expect him to produce similar numbers for the next couple seasons.

29. Dwight Howard
Age: 32 - Games: 81
Points: 1347 (1.660) - Rebounds: 1012 (4.030)
Assists: 105 (-0.198) - 3P Made: 1 (-0.987)
Steals: 48 (0.156) - Blocks: 131 (3.718)
Turnovers: 208 (-2.203) - FT%: 0.574 (-1.537)
FG%: 0.555 (1.383)
FanDuel PPG: 37.63
9-Cat Average: 0.669
8-Best Average: 1.028

-Dwight Howard gets an outlier level of blocks and rebounds while also scoring on a good field goal percentage. Howard is such a polarizing player because his stats themselves are polarized. As strong as his strengths are, Dwight is pretty limited everywhere else and his age makes him eligible for declines from year to year. I think Dwight will hover around the top 50 for another year or two.

291. Malik Monk
Age: 19 - Games: 63
Points: 421 (-0.384) - Rebounds: 66 (-0.927)
Assists: 91 (-0.309) - 3P Made: 83 (0.416)
Steals: 20 (-0.728) - Blocks: 9 (-0.638)
Turnovers: 48 (0.474) - FT%: 0.842 (0.801)
FG%: 0.360 (-1.356)
FanDuel PPG: 10.73
9-Cat Average: -0.293
8-Best Average: -0.162

-It was a quiet rookie season for Malik Monk but I do think there are positives here. If Monk is given a bigger role, I believe he can break into the top 150 as soon as next season. Monk shows signs from the free throw line and he hit a good amount of three while being given far less minutes than many wanted for him. 


Miami Heat

34. Josh Richardson
Age: 24 - Games: 81
Points: 1045 (0.993) - Rebounds: 285 (0.220)
Assists: 231 (0.802) - 3P Made: 127 (1.169)
Steals: 121 (2.461) - Blocks: 75 (1.718)
Turnovers: 140 (-1.065) - FT%: 0.845 (0.828)
FG%: 0.451 (-0.078)
FanDuel PPG: 26.93
9-Cat Average: 0.783
8-Best Average: 1.014

-Josh Richardson finally came on the scene after being a cult hero for a few years. Richardson provides good numbers in literally every category and would be an excellent starter on any team. Because Josh is only 24, I can see him continuing to take steps forward for the next few years.

68. Goran Dragic
Age: 31 - Games: 75
Points: 1296 (1.547) - Rebounds: 307 (0.336)
Assists: 359 (1.817) - 3P Made: 111 (0.895)
Steals: 63 (0.630) - Blocks: 12 (-0.531)
Turnovers: 166 (-1.501) - FT%: 0.801 (0.444)
FG%: 0.450 (-0.092)
FanDuel PPG: 30.16
9-Cat Average: 0.394
8-Best Average: 0.631

-It was another solid year from Goran Dragic who has proven himself to be a quality starting point guard as he gets above-average points, assists, threes and steals. Dragic also shoots good percentages and can rebound well too. Since Goran is past 30, a decline from year to year can be expected but that may not become clear for another couple seasons.

90. Hassan Whiteside
Age: 28 - Games: 54
Points: 754 (0.351) - Rebounds: 618 (1.962)
Assists: 54 (-0.602) - 3P Made: 2 (-0.970)
Steals: 37 (-0.191) - Blocks: 94 (2.397)
Turnovers: 92 (-0.262) - FT%: 0.703 (-0.412)
FG%: 0.540 (1.172)
FanDuel PPG: 34.77
9-Cat Average: 0.383
8-Best Average: 0.552

-It was a troubled campaign for Hassan Whiteside who wasn't able to clock in 60 games this year. Whiteside can rebound and block shots at an elite level while also scoring decently well on a good field goal percentage. However, beyond that Hassan can be limited and because of his career-long issue with minutes, I hesitate to invest in him.


Orlando Magic

62. Nikola Vucevic
Age: 27 - Games: 57
Points: 939 (0.759) - Rebounds: 523 (1.468)
Assists: 191 (0.485) - 3P Made: 64 (0.091)
Steals: 56 (0.409) - Blocks: 63 (1.290)
Turnovers: 109 (-0.547) - FT%: 0.819 (0.601)
FG%: 0.475 (0.259)
FanDuel PPG: 36.86
9-Cat Average: 0.535
8-Best Average: 0.670

-Nikola Vicevic was a positive in eight categories this season despite missing more than 20 games. I have always questioned Vucevic's tansferability but I cannot deny that he has filled up the stat sheets for many years now. I've never been one to invest much in Nikola but there's still opportunity in Orlando for him to repeat these numbers next year (with upside that he can play more games as well).

116. Aaron Gordon
Age: 22 - Games: 58
Points: 1022 (0.943) - Rebounds: 457 (1.122)
Assists: 136 (0.048) - 3P Made: 115 (0.964)
Steals: 59 (0.503) - Blocks: 45 (0.647)
Turnovers: 107 (-0.513) - FT%: 0.698 (-0.455)
FG%: 0.434 (-0.317)
FanDuel PPG: 34.13
9-Cat Average: 0.327
8-Best Average: 0.432

-Aaron Gordon can get all the counting stats but struggles with his percentages. I am a fan of Gordon's multicategorical game and there is a lot of upside due to his age & the possibilities of him playing more than 70 games in a season one day. Either way, I would bet on Gordon being in the top 80 next season.

131. Evan Fournier
Age: 25 - Games: 57
Points: 1013 (0.923) - Rebounds: 180 (-0.330)
Assists: 165 (0.278) - 3P Made: 127 (1.169)
Steals: 47 (0.124) - Blocks: 16 (-0.388)
Turnovers: 95 (-0.312) - FT%: 0.867 (1.020)
FG%: 0.459 (0.035)
FanDuel PPG: 27.55
9-Cat Average: 0.280
8-Best Average: 0.363

-Evan Fournier provides quality in six categories, which is rather rare. Unfortunately, his breakout season seems to be in perpetual delay due to one reason or another (this season being the games missed). Despite the disappointment, I expect Evan to hang around this league for awhile due to his diverse game.



Washington Wizards

16. Bradley Beal
Age: 24 - Games: 82
Points: 1857 (2.785) - Rebounds: 363 (0.629)
Assists: 373 (1.928) - 3P Made: 199 (2.402)
Steals: 97 (1.703) - Blocks: 36 (0.326)
Turnovers: 214 (-2.304) - FT%: 0.793 (0.374)
FG%: 0.460 (0.049)
FanDuel PPG: 37.04
9-Cat Average: 0.877
8-Best Average: 1.274

-Bradley Beal had a stellar year as he finally put everything together in a healthy season like many had hoped. Beal is elite in four categories and above-average in three others. If Bradley can continue this progression for the next couple years (reasonable), he could break the top 10 eventually.

30. Otto Porter Jr.
Age: 24 - Games: 77
Points: 1134 (1.190) - Rebounds: 492 (1.305)
Assists: 157 (0.215) - 3P Made: 138 (1.358)
Steals: 116 (2.303) - Blocks: 41 (0.504)
Turnovers: 75 (0.022) - FT%: 0.828 (0.679)
FG%: 0.503 (0.652)
FanDuel PPG: 30.60
9-Cat Average: 0.914
8-Best Average: 1.026

-Otto Porter Jr.'s game was above average in every single measure this season (even turnovers!) while particularly excelling in 4 categories. It may surprise some to see OPJ ranked so highly but his combination of volume and efficiency is extremely rare. If Porter can stay healthy, he will be a premiere glue guy for years to come.

152. John Wall
Age: 27 - Games: 41
Points: 797 (0.446) - Rebounds: 150 (-0.487)
Assists: 393 (2.087) - 3P Made: 62 (0.057)
Steals: 57 (0.440) - Blocks: 45 (0.647)
Turnovers: 158 (-1.367) - FT%: 0.726 (-0.211)
FG%: 0.420 (-0.513)
FanDuel PPG: 41.82
9-Cat Average: 0.122
8-Best Average: 0.308

-Another surprise from Washington is John Wall's low ranking due to him missing half the season. Wall's elite ability to get stats on both ends of the floor is very attractive but his limitation will always be the amount of games he can register in a given season. If John Wall plays a full season, he would be a top 50 player but because of his age and injury history, it is risky to expect that.

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