Wednesday, May 9, 2018

2018 NBA Statistical Review (Central Division)

Intro

Using basketball-reference.com I gathered the regular season totals of all players who logged at least 150 minutes (a set of 437 players) this 2017-18 season. I then examined each players' total output in the nine categories commonly used in the fantasy basketball community (3-points made, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, points, field goal %, and free throw %). I calculated the z-scores (the amount of standard deviations away from the mean the datum is) of each player's category to equalize all numbers and give a clear score of how each player performed in each category on the year.

I then took the average of each players' set of nine z-scores to give them their "9-cat average". I also took averages of each players' best eight z-scores (dropping their worst category) to give them their "8-best average". I also calculated everyone's fantasy points per game (based off of FanDuel's scoring system) to give a per-game perspective.

My overall rankings (and total work) can be seen here, but the highlights of the Central Division follow...

Also, check out the Atlantic and Southeast divisions by following the links.


Chicago Bulls

85. Lauri Markkanen
Age: 20 - Games: 68
Points: 1033 (0.967) - Rebounds: 508 (1.389)
Assists: 79 (-0.404) - 3P Made: 145 (1.477)
Steals: 39 (-0.128) - Blocks: 40 (0.469)
Turnovers: 83 (-0.112) - FT%: 0.843 (0.810)
FG%: 0.434 (-0.317)
FanDuel PPG: 28.16
9-Cat Average: 0.461
8-Best Average: 0.569

-The highest ranking player to finish the season on Chicago's roster is Lauri Markkanen. That speaks to the state of the Bulls right now but it also speaks to Markkanen's rookie year. Larui provided everything Chicago could have hoped for with points, rebounds and threes. Throw in decent percentages and defensive stats and Markkanen has a very bright future.

88. Justin Holiday
Age: 28 - Games: 72
Points: 876 (0.620) - Rebounds: 291 (0.252)
Assists: 153 (0.183) - 3P Made: 161 (1.751)
Steals: 80 (1.166) - Blocks: 31 (0.147)
Turnovers: 93 (-0.279) - FT%: 0.823 (0.636)
FG%: 0.371 (-1.201)
FanDuel PPG: 23.54
9-Cat Average: 0.364
8-Best Average: 0.560

-Justin Holiday may not be exciting but he got it done well enough in most of he categories to make up for his poor shooting percentage. I am skeptical if Holiday will ever top this season but he did well enough with his opportunity. 

141. Kris Dunn
Age: 23 - Games: 52
Points: 699 (0.230) - Rebounds: 221 (-0.115)
Assists: 310 (1.429) - 3P Made: 43 (-0.268)
Steals: 104 (1.924) - Blocks: 27 (0.005)
Turnovers: 150 (-1.233) - FT%: 0.730 (-0.176)
FG%: 0.429 (-0.387)
FanDuel PPG: 32.16
9-Cat Average: 0.157
8-Best Average: 0.330

-It is pretty impressive that Kris Dunn ranks so high despite missing 30 games this year. He played in an almost ideal situation as he was given a lot of room to gain experience so it will be interesting to see if that can last. Dunn definitely produced on a per game pace and should break the top 100 next year if he plays more than 70 games.


Cleveland Cavaliers 

1. LeBron James
Age: 33 - Games: 82
Points: 2251 (3.654) - Rebounds: 709 (2.442)
Assists: 747 (4.896) - 3P Made: 149 (1.546)
Steals: 116 (2.303) - Blocks: 71 (1.576)
Turnovers: 347 (-4.529) - FT%: 0.731 (-0.167)
FG%: 0.542 (1.200)
FanDuel PPG: 54.10
9-Cat Average: 1.436
8-Best Average: 2.181

-The King comes in on top this year for several reasons. He is an outlier in four categories and elite in three others. Despite all that, I think his most impressive feat this year was 82 games. LeBron James is truly having a special career and this season was just another league-leading performance. 

77. Kevin Love
Age: 29 - Games: 59
Points: 1039 (0.980) - Rebounds: 546 (1.588)
Assists: 103 (1.340) - 3P Made: 137 (1.751)
Steals: 43 (-0.002) - Blocks: 24 (-0.102)
Turnovers: 90 (-0.229) - FT%: 0.880 (1.133)
FG%: 0.458 (0.021)
FanDuel PPG: 33.22
9-Cat Average: 0.502
8-Best Average: 0.593

-Kevin Love had a very strong start to the season but ends up outside the top 50 because he missed so much time down the stretch. Love did well in 5 categories and should be trusted to bring something similar next year. However, I do think it is clear that we are seeing the beginning of Kevin Love's decline.

133. Kyle Korver
Age: 36 - Games: 73
Points: 672 (0.170) - Rebounds: 165 (-0.408)
Assists: 88 (-0.333) - 3P Made: 164 (1.802)
Steals: 31 (-0.381) - Blocks: 27 (0.005)
Turnovers: 55 (0.357) - FT%: 0.889 (1.212)
FG%: 0.459 (0.035)
FanDuel PPG: 15.36
9-Cat Average: 0.273
8-Best Average: 0.358

-We all know Kyle Korver is a 3-point specialist who gets it done in the efficiency numbers but is someone who is generally lacking in all the counting stats. He appears to be ageless so he'll probably be able to keep this up for a couple more years. I'm not the biggest fan but Korver's strengths are clear.


Detroit Pistons

11. Andre Drummond
Age: 24 - Games: 78
Points: 1171 (1.271) - Rebounds: 1247 (5.261)
Assists: 237 (0.850) - 3P Made: 0 (-1.004)
Steals: 114 (2.240) - Blocks: 127 (3.575)
Turnovers: 200 (-2.069) - FT%: 0.605 (-1.267)
FG%: 0.529 (1.018)
FanDuel PPG: 45.46
9-Cat Average: 1.097
8-Best Average: 1.493

-Andre Drummond had another prolarizing season which is what we've come to expect from him. Drummond had some of the best rebounding and defensive numbers in the league. He also gets enough assists and points to be ahead of the curve. However, because his shooting categories are so below-average, Andre finishes the season just outside the top 10.

84. Blake Griffin
Age: 28 - Games: 58
Points: 1242 (1.428) - Rebounds: 428 (0.970)
Assists: 334 (1.619) - 3P Made: 111 (0.895)
Steals: 41 (-0.065) - Blocks: 18 (-0.317)
Turnovers: 165 (-1.484) - FT%: 0.785 (0.304)
FG%: 0.438 (-0.260)
FanDuel PPG: 39.11
9-Cat Average: 0.343
8-Best Average: 0.572

-It was another star-crossed season for Blake Griffin who clearly still has game when he's healthy. Despite missing 20+ games, Griffin was still able to be above-average four counting statistics. I sold all my Blake Griffin stock a long time ago but he always has the potential for a resurgence due to his abilities. This caveat will always be whether or not Blake can ever surpass 70 games in a season again.

187. Stanley Johnson
Age: 21 - Games: 69
Points: 599 (0.009) - Rebounds: 252 (0.047)
Assists: 112 (-0.142) - 3P Made: 67 (0.142)
Steals: 95 (1.640) - Blocks: 14 (-0.459)
Turnovers: 77 (-0.011) - FT%: 0.772 (0.191)
FG%: 0.375 (-1.145)
FanDuel PPG: 19.12
9-Cat Average: 0.030
8-Best Average: 0.177

-Stanley Johnson had another quiet season but there is still potential here. All of Johnson's categories hover around average (outside his steals specialist abilities) but at the age of 21, that could be considered ahead of the curve. I have my reservations but since this franchise may be in flux going forward, I could see Stanley stepping into more opportunity soon.


Indiana Pacers

8. Victor Oladipo
Age: 25 - Games: 75
Points: 1735 (2.516) - Rebounds: 390 (0.771)
Assists: 323 (1.532) - 3P Made: 161 (1.751)
Steals: 177 (4.229) - Blocks: 57 (1.076)
Turnovers: 219 (-2.387) - FT%: 0.799 (0.426)
FG%: 0.477 (0.287)
FanDuel PPG: 42.27
9-Cat Average: 1.133
8-Best Average: 1.573

-The Cinderella member of the top 10 is Victor Oladipo and he earned every bit of it. Oladipo submitted two elite categories while coming in well above average in 4 others. In fact, Victor was only below average in turnovers (the least reliable category) and, at 24, Oladipo actually still has time to improve his game even further.

78. Myles Turner
Age: 21 - Games: 65
Points: 828 (0.515) - Rebounds: 417 (0.912)
Assists: 87 (-0.340) - 3P Made: 56 (-0.046)
Steals: 38 (-0.160) - Blocks: 118 (3.253)
Turnovers: 96 (-0.329) - FT%: 0.777 (0.234)
FG%: 0.479 (0.315)
FanDuel PPG: 28.17
9-Cat Average: 0.484
8-Best Average: 0.587

-Myles Turner turned in what many consider to be a disappointing individual season (myself included). However, much of that can be chalked up to Turner's high amount of missed games (something that was not a problem last year). I still believe Turner will have multiple top 50 seasons throughout his career but, besides his elite blocks, Myles' numbers were only mildly good this campaign. 

144. Domantas Sabonis
Age: 21 - Games: 74
Points: 861 (0.587) - Rebounds: 572 (1.724)
Assists: 151 (0.167) - 3P Made: 13 (-0.782)
Steals: 40 (-0.097) - Blocks: 32 (0.183)
Turnovers: 137 (-1.015) - FT%: 0.750 (-0.001)
FG%: 0.514 (0.807)
FanDuel PPG: 25.04
9-Cat Average: 0.175
8-Best Average: 0.324

-Domantas Sabonis was another pleasant surprise for Indiana this season as the young man grabbed rebounds and hit shots. Sabonis is still very young so he can continue to grow. If Domantas can add another above-average category or two to his game over the years, he can definitely become a top 100 staple.


Milwaukee Bucks

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Age: 25 - Games: 75
Points: 2014 (3.131) - Rebounds: 753 (2.673)
Assists: 361 (1.833) - 3P Made: 43 (-0.268)
Steals: 109 (2.082) - Blocks: 106 (2.825)
Turnovers: 223 (-2.454) - FT%: 0.760 (0.086)
FG%: 0.529 (1.018)
FanDuel PPG: 51.75
9-Cat Average: 1.214
8-Best Average: 1.672

-The meteor that is Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to rise. Antetokounmpo put up elite counting stats across the board (outside of threes) and did so on quality percentages. It is clear that Giannis will be a staple of the NBA elite for years to come.

18. Khris Middleton
Age: 26 - Games: 82
Points: 1652 (2.333) - Rebounds: 429 (0.975)
Assists: 328 (1.571) - 3P Made: 146 (1.494)
Steals: 119 (2.398) - Blocks: 21 (-0.210)
Turnovers: 191 (-1.919) - FT%: 0.884 (1.168)
FG%: 0.466 (0.133)
FanDuel PPG: 35.22
9-Cat Average: 0.883
8-Best Average: 1.233

-One of the most underrated players in the NBA is Khris Middleton. Middleton put up two elite categories, three above-average categories and was quality everywhere else too. To say Giannis doesn't have help isn't entirely true because Khris Middleton does seem like the perfect teammate for Antetokounmpo and is just a great player in any situation. There is no reason Middleton can't repeat these numbers next season and beyond.

21. Eric Bledsoe
Age: 28 - Games: 74
Points: 1313 (1.585) - Rebounds: 284 (0.215)
Assists: 370 (1.905) - 3P Made: 125 (1.135)
Steals: 149 (3.345) - Blocks: 42 (0.540)
Turnovers: 216 (-2.337) - FT%: 0.792 (0.365)
FG%: 0.473 (0.231)
FanDuel PPG: 34.67
9-Cat Average: 0.776
8-Best Average: 1.165

-It was a wild ride of a season for Eric Bledsoe. As Bledsoe reaches his peak age and he finds his fit with his newest team, it is clear that he can get volume shots, assists and elite steals while not hurting you too much anywhere else. I question how many more top 50 seasons Eric Bledsoe has left but I do think next year is likely to be one of them.

1 comment:

  1. Your FT z scores appear to be off. LeBron's high volume and low percentage will surely get you a loss in FT week after week, yet his z score is not nearly low enough. Ditto for Drummond. Contrast with a guy like Middleton who has a decent volume and a good percentage and his impact vs Lebron in the cat is way too low.

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