2017 Juicy Basketballs League Season Preview (Part 3)

MAMA Said Knock You Out (Rich Mamaradlo)

Can Chris Paul lead a team to the finals?

2016 Fantasy Total: 13,065 (9th)

2016 Regular Season: 9-7 (T-4th)

2016 Playoffs: First Round

Extended Contracts: Klay Thompson (3yrs, $34)

Expiring Contracts: Gordon Hayward (FA, $40), Aaron Afflalo (FA, $4)

Intriguing Players: Al Horford (2yrs, $40), Stanley Johnson (1yr, $10), Zach LaVine (1yr, $1), Chris Paul (1yr, $78), Jared Sullinger (2yrs, $8), Jaylen Brown (2yrs, $10), Jamaal Murray (2yrs, $10)

NBA Comparison: Toronto Raptors

The Raptors made franchise history last year by making it to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time ever. That may come as a surprise considering the franchise once had Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady near their primes at the same time. All this goes to show how much the DeRozan-Lowry era has accomplished. The franchise has made so much ground lately that their GM, Masai Ujiri got a large contract extension this off-season. 

The east is still run by Lebron and the Cavs but Toronto remains their top contender in an ever-strengthening Eastern Conference. Toronto was able to take Cleveland to six games last year but it is the longevity of the Raptors that make them so compelling. Lowry and Carroll are the eldest at 30 while their teammates are still hitting their primes. LeBron's most dominate years are likely behind him but the Raptors are trending up. A currently good squad with promise to get better is just about all anyone can hope for from their franchise.

In the Juicy Basketball League, there is a lot to like about the squad that Rich has assembled. Stanley Johnson is expected to take a step forward and may even overtake the starting small forward position in Detroit. Zach LaVine has become a NBA starter on what many believe to be a playoff contender. Klay Thompson is, at the very least, a premium shooting guard on one of the best contracts around. Gordon Hayward, Al Horford, and Chris Paul are all top-tier fantasy contributors for their positions. MAMA Said Knock You Out has a great blend of value, youth, and elite talent. All the money has been spent efficiently giving plenty of opportunity for further growth.

This off-season, Rich could go a lot of different ways with his team. I am interested to see how he handles Hayward's extension. Keeping Chris Paul at such a large price may be just as difficult a decision to make. These are the choices that define a franchise.

Maybe Rich decides to run it back with what he's got. There would still be enough money to gather more quality guys in the auction draft if he did. Maybe he decides to let the expensive guys go and build around all his value players and his exciting new rookies. Either way, this team is sure to perform and I expect to see Rich MAMA in the playoffs once again. This team should put out over 825 fantasy points per week this coming fantasy season.

Is Derrick Favors about to hit his prime?

Por Favors (Nathaniel Coromelas)

2016 Fantasy Total: 14,399 (5th)

2016 Regular Season: 9-7 (T-4th)

2016 Playoffs: Second Round

Extended Contracts: Derrick Favors (3yrs, $25)

Expiring Contracts: Isaiah Thomas (FA, $7), Aaron Gordon (R, $10), Dante Exum (R, $10)

Intriguing Players: Draymond Green (1yr, $1), Kyrie Irving (2yrs, $60), Kristaps Porzingis (1yr, $10), Carmelo Anthony (2yrs, $69), Rudy Gobert (1yr, $12)

NBA Comparison: Boston Celtics

Boston's first world problem right now seems to be that they have more good pieces than they know what to do with. They have been hoarding assets as much as possible and now have enough quality role players to start a second D-league team. The unfortunate issue is that even with all this apparent value, they are missing that next-level superstar to elevate the team to contend with the league's best. Horford certainly helps in that regard but he and Isaiah Thomas still feel like good second and third options for Boston's next great Big Three. The Celtics have assembled all they can but are still missing that final puzzle piece, a franchise player.

One of the most commons trades that occur in both fantasy sports and the NBA is when one great player is given up for several quality assets. Like exchanging a dollar for four quarters, the former provides consolidated value while the latter gives increased flexibility. Two example from the NBA are when Pau Gasol went from Memphis to the Lakers for Marc Gasol and the cap space to sign Zach Randolph and when the Nuggets got the Knicks' starting lineup for Carmelo Anthony. Often, these types of trades can be mutually beneficial depending of the needs or directions of the teams involved. 

 

The Celtics have put themselves in prime position to receive a superstar in a similar kind of trade. Had this Boston team existed when OKC traded James Harden, they could have offered much more than the Rockets gave up. Instead, the Celtic must continue to wait patiently until a star becomes available.

Much like the Celtics, Por Favors is a team that has plenty of quarters and Nathaniel is simply waiting for his chance to land a few more bills. If that happens, I see Por Favors blossoming into an electric title contender. And with only Derrick Favors on the extended books, Nate Dogg has the flexibility to mold his team around any good move that presents itself.

Gordon and Porzingis are two very intriguing young players with All-Star potential. Irving and Carmelo are both top fantasy contributors. The ever-mysterious Dante Exum still has upside on a value contract. Meanwhile, Favors, Green, and Gorbert are all of the above. 

All of this leads me to believe that even if no exciting roster changes are made, Por Favors should be expected to take a step forward from last season. Much like the Celtics, Por Favors is prime to contend with out without a move.

Nathaniel has done a great job of developing this team in a truly healthy way. He has done this by collecting several value contracts. It will be exciting to see what he has in store this upcoming season.

Last year was Nathaniel's first trip to the second round, I suspect that was only the beginning. This campaign, I expect 900+ fantasy points per week during the regular season and another playoff berth.

Blow Me (Tyler Lopez)

How many stars does a true contender need?

2016 Fantasy Total: 12,274 (11th)

2016 Regular Season: 3-13 (12th)

2016 Playoffs: None

Extended Contracts: Blake Griffin (3yrs, $74), Kawhi Leonard (3yrs, $29)

Expiring Contracts: Bradley Beal (FA, $1), DeAndre Jordan (FA, $5), Marc Gasol (FA, $56)

Intriguing Players: Marcus Morris (2yrs, $2), Jeremy Lin (2yrs, $15), Chris Bosh (2yrs, $39), Ben Simmons (2yrs, $10), Eric Gordon (2yrs, $0)

NBA Comparison: Los Angeles Clippers

For the last few years the Clippers have been elite contenders in the Western Conference. The product of basketball that they put on the floor is top of the line. They sport the best pure point guard, the best rim protector, and one of the top offensive big men in the league. This core is only highlighted with veteran depth and an experienced coach. Unfortunately, their promising season was dashed by a slew of injuries.

  

With the Thunder presumably out of their way, the Clippers are one of the top contenders to Golden State's western throne. We are about to have a long season ahead of us. A lot of things can happen but one thing is certain, Chris Paul and the Clippers can only be fueled by Durant's move to Oakland.

If last June has taught us anything it is that the unexpected can happen even on the NBA's biggest stage. 

That truth is only magnified in fantasy sports.

The team delightfully known as Blow Me went through the worst year of injury luck any team has ever suffered in this league. Chris Bosh, Marc Gasol, and Blake Griffin missed a combined 106 games causing Brett Hoxie's team to lose about 160 fantasy points per week. 

That's the difference between ending up eleventh and third in fantasy production for the year. It is safe to say that those injuries cost Brett about seven wins last year.

Clearly, this squad is far better than what last year's record shows. The franchise had been in decent shape for the past few years and Michael drafted really well for the team last auction draft. 

Brett inherited a good team and made strong decisions all seasons. The unfortunate truth is sometimes you just get unlucky.

Oddly enough, all of Brett's misfortune developed into Tyler's fortune when Blow Me landed the top overall pick in this year's rookie draft.

I am confident that Ben Simmons will be a fantasy difference maker. Getting a top tier rookie like him is one of the best ways to kick a fantasy team into a higher gear. Tyler's situation gives me flashbacks to how the Spurs got to draft Tim Duncan the one year that David Robinson happened to miss a lot of games the prior season. The Spurs followed that with a twenty year dynasty of winning.

With quality superstars like Griffin, Leonard, and the newly arrived DeAndre Jordan, Tyler already had everything he needed to contend for a playoff spot. With Simmons and an excess of cap room, he could win multiple playoff games this year.

Tyler is a proven owner and I expect him to bring a stability to this team that the franchise has always been missing. He is a good craftsmen with good tools at his disposal. At the very least, I expect team Blow Me to post around 900 points a week in the regular season and follow that with a playoff win.

2017 Juicy Basketballs League Season Preview (Part 2)

Rim Jobs (Jonathan Montgomery)

How bright is the future in Lakerland?

2016 Fantasy Total: 10,998 (12th)

2016 Regular Season: 4-12 (11th)

2016 Playoffs: None

Extended Contracts: Kemba Walker (2yrs, $29), Kevin Love (1yr, $73)

Expiring Contracts: Elfrid Payton (R, $10)

Intriguing Players: Victor Oladipo (2yrs, $25), D'Angelo Russell (1yr, $10), Derrick Rose (2yrs, $20), Brandon Ingram (2yrs, $10), Kris Dunn (2yrs, $10)

NBA Comparison: Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia has been rebuilding for some time now and it looks like this is the year where things will finally start to change. Expectations should be higher but how high is still somewhat of a mystery.

They've collected nice, young talent for the last few years. Covington, Noel and Okafor have proven to be good NBA players. Despite that, it is their newest addition, Simmons, who seems to be their franchise player. If he is what they expect him to be, they can finally start to move forward.

Philly will most likely miss the playoffs this year but their fan base is going to want to see an uptick in the wins column for years to come. The playoffs should be a fair goal within the next few seasons.

Oddly enough, their biggest issue now seems to be that they have a lot of redundant talent. Embiid, Noel and Okafor all play center primarily and Simmons' favorite position is only one spot down at the power forward. This put the Sixers in a position where they can no longer turtle up with lottery picks. They must now be proactive and creative.

The franchise that Monty has inherited has preformed the worst in our league's history thus far. Across the four completed seasons, this team has averaged over 12 losses a year and has never made the playoffs. 

Fortunately, through the turmoil, nice assets have been collected. Payton can be expected to be a starter for the next few years. Russell is in the running to be the face of the Lakers franchise. Walker and Oladipo are legitimate studs and have two of the best value contracts in the JBL. With the recent addition of rookies Brandon Ingram and Kris Dunn, each dancing with starters minutes right off the bat, Monty might have the most intriguing collection out of all of us.

It has been a long, bumpy road but after four seasons of rebuilding, it looks like the flowers are starting to bloom for team Rim Jobs.

Monty is a smart guy and has shown that he can put together a contender quickly. On top of that, his new team has assets out the wazoo. When good poker players get good hands, good things usually happen.

Much like the Sixers, I think this is the year that the franchise starts trending up. Monty just has to figure out how to fix his similar issue of having too many studs at the same position. Only for him, it will be point guards that he will be dealing with.

Ultimately, it all depends on what strategy Monty decides to implement but at the very least I expect this team to be respectable and growing in the right direction. I'm very interested to see how it all shakes out. Regardless, with the most cap space in the league this team has the most boom potential. I expect at least 800 fantasy points per week this coming season.

Is DeRozan a superstar?

Make It Nashty (Danny Leong)

2016 Fantasy Total: 13,917 (6th)

2016 Regular Season: 7-9 (8th)

2016 Playoffs: First Round

Extended Contracts: DeMar DeRozan (2yrs, $19), Eric Bledsoe (2yrs, $24)

Expiring Contracts: Deron Williams (FA, $41), Reggie Jackson (FA, $1), Jordan Hill (FA, $1), Dwight Howard (FA, $63)

Intriguing Players: Rajon Rondo (2yrs, $8), Robert Covington (1yr, $0), Al-Farouq Aminu (2yrs, $3), Taureen Prince (2yrs, $0)

NBA Comparison: Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers surprised a lot of people last season. Just a year ago, they lost three starters in LeMarcus Alderige, Wesley Matthews, and Nicolas Batum. The team truly became Damien Lillard's and, with the help of the emergence of a few teammates, the team excelled. Portland finished 5^th in the the tougher conference and even won a playoff series. Plumlee, Aminu, and Crabbe stepped up, McCollum erupted, and Lillard cemented himself as a top tier NBA player. 

Despite all this, Portland still remains a unpopular free agent destination. Putting the Trailblazers in the position of paying more for a baller would who have played for less elsewhere. Unfortunate as they may be, I believe the Blazers improved once again this off-season. Guys like Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli may be overpaid in the eyes of many but it cannot be denied that they are improvements on the roster. Because of all this, Portland will once again be the wild card of the western conference.
 

In the four seasons of the Juicy Basketball dynasty league, Danny's franchise has never missed the playoffs. Danny took on this team just two years ago and already has a playoff win. Looking at the roster, it is easy to see why. There are a lot of valuable contracts here, two of the most valuable being the extended contracts. 

Since extended contracts are the most important contracts, Danny has one of the healthiest salary distributions of us all.
 

Despite his injury concerns, I like Eric Bledsoe at 2 years for $24. It's a short and sweet contract for an elite player that should just about cover his prime. Even more though, I love the deal with DeMar DeRozan. I have a weakness for elite wing players. Much like with running backs in fantasy football, because it is the scarcest position, it is the most valuable to lock down. Because we have $300 to spend on 15 player, we can spend $20 on an average rosterable player. Last year, DeRozan was the second highest scoring shooting guard, behind only James Harden. A guy like that for $19 is an absolute steal.
  

Despite how bad Chicago may be, Rondo should continue to put up good fantasy stats. Robert Covington remains a starter with an new, elite distributor playing next to him. And Dwight Howard has the potential to have his best year since his days in Orlando. 

Much like the Blazers, Danny seems to be attracted to those guys that everybody else is sleeping on. So far, it has paid dividend to him as it has in Portland. This team has a strong enough core to fight for the playoffs once again and put up north of 800 fantasy points per week.

Balls to the Wall (Brett Lakey)

Can John Wall be the best player on a championship team?

2016 Fantasy Total: 13,721 (7th)

2016 Regular Season: 9-7 (T-4th)

2016 Playoffs: First Round

Extended Contracts: Kyle Lowry (3yrs, $42), John Wall (2yrs, $40), Kenneth Faried (1yr, $19), Serge Ibaka (1yr, $63)

Expiring Contracts: Nicolas Batum (E, $16), Doug McDermott (R, $10)

Intriguing Players: Otto Porter Jr. (2yrs, $16), LaMarcus Aldridge (2yrs, $64), Robin Lopez (1yr, $5), Michael Carter-Williams (2yrs, $16), Darren Collison (2yrs, $3), Nikola Mirotic (1yr, $11)

NBA Comparison: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks continue to be one of the most compelling teams in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James has made 6 straight finals appearances and he is favored to make that 7 this year. Since the days of Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, Atlanta has been in the discussion as possible team to dethrone James. With the signing of Dwight Howard and the emergence of Dennis Schroder, I believe Atlanta has never had a better chance of reaching the finals. 

There is a lot to dislike about Dwight Howard but his return to the east has really been understated. In his last two years in Orlando, he went to the Eastern Conference Finals or further. Even if his talent has dropped off some since, Atlanta is probably the best team he has ever played for. 

Millsap continues to be the most underrated post player in the league. Schroder has eventual All-Star potential. And most importantly, the Hawks have been one of the most well-run front offices around. They should only continue to get better as time goes on.
 

Brett took over this team just last year and has immediately taken Balls to the Wall in a strong direction. In his first year, he finished 3 spots higher than the franchise had ever finished before. This newfound prosperity should continue since Brett's extended contracts are all elite players on reasonable contracts. 

The best thing a fantasy owner can hope for is a small collection of all-stars and Brett has gathered his while maintaining enough cap space to surround them with a strong supporting cast. Otto Porter Jr. is on a value contract. Mirotic is a lock to start in Chicago. Aldridge is a top tier post player. 

There is a lot to like here. Just like the Hawks, Brett has established himself as a contender to fight at that next level. I would not be surprised if he gets his first playoff win this season.

Atlanta has been making some daring moves and they have been paying off. Similarly, I have seen Brett's willingness to strike when he knows a good move can be made. I expect him to continue that this coming season. If the opportunity is there, I believe Brett will find a way to add another all-star to his collection. 

If that happens, I can see Balls to the Wall elevating beyond that plateau and becoming a true finals contender. Either way, I expect this team to put up no less than 850 fantasy points per week.

2017 Juicy Basketballs League Season Preview (Part 1)

Who will be top fantasy dog this year?

I feel like our league has sure gotten interesting. Before we go any further, here is a quick look at what each team did in the regular season last year:

How much will this change next year?

The NBA was founded in 1946 and was initially known as the BAA. It didn't really resemble what we know as the NBA today until after its merger with the ABA in 1977 which bumped the league to 22 teams. Many consider that to be the beginning of the “modern NBA” (Though the 3 point line didn't even show up for another two years). So for the first 30 years or so, the NBA was kinda weird. 

I think it all counts of course but its impossible to ignore how different things were back then. Things on the court have changed but, even more, the business side has grown a great deal.  The ways players are drafted, traded and signed have evolved to form a fun game that we like to play.

I love comparing our league to the NBA because I think that was always the ultimate goal of fantasy sports. We all want the experience of running an NBA franchise. And like the NBA, our league has gone through some weird beginnings.

Looking back on the past 4 years, it is noticeable in how we played the game. In our first season, almost everyone was trying to win that very year. Nobody wanted to trade for a guy that produced significantly less fantasy points just because of their “potential”. We saw first round picks flying around like crazy. Eric Gordon got picked up for over $100 dollars. Every franchise was in win-now mode.

That was just naturally going to happen in the inaugural season. The 50s NBA didn't have teams intentionally tanking like we see today. 

The rules changed and the intentions of the franchises changed so the way to play the game was changed.

Here are some things at play for the JBL this year that are brand new:

Extended Contracts. We have a lot of these floating around now. Since they cannot be dropped without penalty, they define the teams that hold them.

Restricted Free Agency. Our first RFA was last year and it was a weak draft. I feel like that was almost a practice round of what the real RFA will be like.

Talent Disparity. We have some strong teams at the top like never before and that makes it difficult for the rest of the league to keep up in the conventional sense. Owners will have to be creative in their strategies, spawning more ways to play this game we all love.

For these reasons, I have a feeling that 2017 will be for the JBL what 1977 was for the NBA: the dawning of the modern era.

So with the modern era upon us, I figured we could use a season preview. Here are my thought on each team in our league, which NBA franchise matches their narrative, and why I think so. This is week one of a four part series, enjoy!

–

TimAin't Duncan (Nick Coromelas)

Can Noel be a franchise player?

2016 Fantasy Total: 12,285 (10th)

2016 Regular Season: 5-11 (T-9th)

2016 Playoffs: None

Extended Contracts: Jrue Holiday (1yr, $29), Chandler Parsons (3yrs, $29), Luol Deng (1yr, $27), Nikola Vucevic (3yrs, $28)

Expiring Contracts: Nerlens Noel (FA, $22)

Intriguing Players: Marcus Smart (2yrs, $11), Brandon Knight (1yr, $42), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1yr, $7)

NBA Comparison: Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been in a weird spot ever since they traded away Steve Nash. In the four seasons since doing so, they have averaged 36 wins a year. That sounds bad but there has actually been some highlights. Just two years ago, Phoenix surprised everyone by winning 48 games and contending for a playoff spot. That was the year where they decided to play two point guards and surround them with shooters, something that has become somewhat of a fad in the NBA as of late. It was also the year their coach finished second for COTY. It is uncommon for a team that is supposed to be rebuilding to accomplishes so much.

Now, Phoenix seems to be in a tough spot of deciding which direction to go. On one hand, they still have guys like Bledsoe, Knight, and Chandler who are ready to help a team now; on the other hand, they have guys like Booker and Len who have shown promise but probably will not be their best for a few more years. 

 

I suspect that this will be the year where the Suns fully embrace the rebuild and go with their young guys. Knight will probably be shipped off. Bledsoe may be traded as well. Meanwhile, they will likely try to cultivate their younger core. 

 

Because of this, Phoenix has been a team that has had my attention for some time now. Clearly this is a franchise that wants to succeed. Unfortunately, it seems like their best option may be to get worse before they get better. Personally, I'm pretty excited to see what these baby Suns have got. They have a lot of exciting talent and I they are headed in the right direction.

In the JBL, Andrew Baron-Vartian liked to trade away his first rounders. The only first rounder he ever used was in 2013 when he picked Trey Burke at #4 and subsequently traded him away for J.R. Smith that same summer. Clearly, Nick inherited a team where future-minded assets were not emphasized. There is nothing wrong with that but it has made it all the harder for Nick to cultivate his own rebuild.

Being a new owner is extremely difficult. Rich had a tough first season as well before coming on as contender over the last couple years. It takes time for the team to become your own.

Therefore, I expect this season to be the season where Nick takes a few large steps in the right direction as the team starts to become his. He has a lot of cap space, he has young players on good contracts, and he finally has some draft picks to work with as well. Maybe his record won't be picture perfect but I do think there is a lot to be optimistic about here. 

 

Nick's extended contracts are all short and small. I see them as all being highly tradeable or keepable. That offers Nick more flexibility than most. Meanwhile, guys like Noel, Smart, and Caldwell-Pope are still emerging and may still have their best years ahead of them. It it always nice to have guys like that.

 

Chris proved that it can take as little as one season to rebuild any team into a contender (In 2014, he finished with a record of 3-13. In the two years since, he has won 27 regular season games). I believe Nick is in a prime position to make some proactive moves, making him one of the most dangerous teams in the league this year. Progress will be made, I predict this team will average 750 fantasy points per week.

All-NBA 5^th Team (Matt Wong)

How much is LeBron worth?

2016 Fantasy Total: 13,315 (8th)

2016 Regular Season: 5-11 (T-9th)

2016 Playoffs: None

Extended Contracts: None

Expiring Contracts: Trevor Ariza (FA, $1)

Intriguing Players: Dennis Schroder (2yrs, $1), Ryan Anderson (2yrs, $11), Hassan Whiteside (2yrs, $46), LeBron James (2yrs, $99), Dwayne Wade (2yrs, $20)

NBA Comparison: New York Knicks

The Knicks have always been crapped on for making bad moves but I like what they have done this off-season. I think they have a shot at making the playoffs next year and I think that's all the fan-base really wants anymore. Deep down, the smart thing for the Knicks to do would probably be to trade Carmelo to a team like Boston and start fresh with Porzingis and the nice pieces they got for Melo. But that would never happen because Carmelo likes playing for New York and New York is ultimately happy to have him (even if he couldn't single-handedly will them to the level of success everyone might have hoped for).

I believe Matt is facing a similar decision that the Knicks recently had to make: build around the current core or do a soft reboot. I believe Matt has the most intriguing keeper decisions to make this fall because I can see a strong argument for two opposite directions. He could use his excess cap space to pick up a star or two to support LeBron or he could let LeBron's big contract go and focus on building around the likes of Schroder and Whiteside. 

 

Matt has a unique advantage of having no extended contracts on his books. That gives him the flexibility to go in any direction he pleases. He could drop all his players today and start fresh this Auction Draft if he fancied. 

 

Schroder and Whiteside are on great value contracts. Focusing on them as a core could pay hefty dividends down the road. 

 

But superstars are hard to come by, even in fantasy sports. LeBron James is the biggest superstar of all and this is the smallest contract he has ever been on. Every owner in the league would like to have him on their team. Even with the biggest contract in the league, he still holds value. This will be a big decision for the future of Matt's team with two paths that lead very different directions. Both can lead to success if followed correctly. All I know is that I'm glad I'm not the one deciding. 

 

Predicting this team's production this upcoming season depends on this one stipulation. With LeBron, this team can put up over 825 fantasy points a week. Without LeBron, I expect closer to 775.

2016 Rookie Draft Winners

Last year was one of the most exciting seasons of fantasy sports I have ever been a part of. Broken records, close finishes and a variety of differently-styled teams blossoming had me completely immersed. Despite this, I actually expect this upcoming season to be an even wilder ride. 

We have strong, creative owners across the board. We have almost every team in some sort of healthy state. And most importantly, with our 5^th season (The wooden anniversary) upon us, this league has truly grown to become the Dynasty League I had once dreamed of being a part of (Just another reason why you guys rock).

My mentality as an owner has changed so much now from where it was during our inaugural season. How I value players, how I view their contracts, how patient I'm willing to be with a prospect. I am now much more concerned with the seasons beyond just the one that is upcoming. I value my team's 3 year plan.

I am sure that I am not alone in feeling this way.

Which brings me to our recent rule change: incoming rookies no longer take up keeper spots. This is about to change the game in a big way. It greatly increases the value of keeping rookies. This, in turn, increases our willingness to give rookies extended chances. I predict this rule change will cause a league-wide step towards emphasizing 3 year plans over 1 year plans.

All this is to say that Rookies are hot right now. So hot that the Rookie Draft is suddenly more important than the Auction Draft. This is, no doubt, the most important Rookie Draft in the history of the Juicy Basketballs League.

Here is who I think advanced their dynasty's cause the furthest last Thursday night and why:

Chris (Team nipple)

Like it:

Drafting Buddy Hield at #4 - Buddy Hield just finished his Senior year of college. Many of his lottery companions were recently freshmen. What that means is that what he brings to the table is more polished and more likely to produce while also being more similar to his eventual peak. He seems to be the high floor, low ceiling candidate of this year's draft; the surest shot. The Defending Champion is doing what a defending champion does. The best team in the league took the guy who is most NBA ready and already has a starting position on lockdown in New Orleans. He could be end up being what New Orleans always wanted Eric Gordon to be: a steady shooting scorer from the wing who plays more than 55 games a season.

The perfect fit for The Defending Champion who is looking for good, cost-efficient value to build around his superstars.

Brett (Balls to the Wall)

Like it:

Receiving $15 for #20 - The second round has a low success rate. In the past, the majority have not even been selected as keepers, making them ultimately worthless. To get any sort of value from a second rounder is a win. Free Agent cash is an undervalued asset in my opinion. The $15 he got here can turn into almost anything. Draymond Green has been picked up for less. Rudy Gay has been traded for about as much.

This was the most improved team last year. I see this trade as a good investment into continuing that improvement.

Love it:

Receiving Harrison Barnes and #9 for #8 - Brett got Harrison Barnes for the difference between Marquese Chriss and Thon Maker... whatever that is.

I see Balls to the Wall as a threat to make the Finals next year. I think Barnes is a good value choice for his situation and Brett got him for next to nothing.

Rich (MAMA said Knock u out)

Like it:

Drafting Dejoute Murray at #17 - This might look like nothing but with Duncan retiring, the baton has been passed in San Antonio. Tony Parker's eventual decline has been a long time coming. George Hill once made a fantasy living as a combo guard for San Antonio and Parker was much younger then. Murray was someone who many believe slid on the actual NBA draft night, resulting in a steal for San Antonio. Maybe he has the chops.

Rich has proven himself to be a patient owner who has enough firepower in his starting lineup to take a chance on someone who doesn't cost him a dollar or take up a keeper spot. Great fit.

Drafting Jaylen Brown at #5 - Jaylen Brown is in the unique situation of being the only NBA lottery pick that will be playing for a defending playoff team. His talent is high but his opportunity is currently cloudy. That can scare people away. But Brad Stevens has been a coach to find (and use) his players' strengths while Danny Ainge has proven to cultivate his lineup for the future whenever he can. Maybe Crowder gets traded. Maybe Brown fills the role that Evan Turner is leaving behind. Maybe both.

Rich has been a master of finding the balance between competing for this year and next. Brown might be able to help on both fronts.

Love it:

Drafting Jamal Murray at #7 - I had Jamal Murray at #4 on my draft board. I have seen him be compared to both Austin Rivers and CJ McCollum. I'm optimistic. In Denver, he has all the opportunity in the world to play next to Mudiay as the Nuggets will likely be out of contention early and rebuilding for the future. He may struggle at first but I can see him averaging close to 20 or so FPPG by the end of the upcoming season, which wouldn't be bad for a 19 year old drafted at #7.

Tyler (Blow Me)

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Drafting Bismack Biyombo at #16 - I officially don't know what the hell Orlando is doing. I loved when they had Payton, Oladipo, Gordon, Harris and Vucevic as their 5. They've somehow traded away 40% of that and seem intent on trading away at least 20% more in Vucevic. With starter's minutes, Biyombo should be able to average around a double-double. That sort of consistency is what everyone is looking for in their front line.

Tyler has a team that I see in the playoffs as soon as next season. Biyombo may very well be an important rotation player for Tyler throughout this season.

Drafting Eric Gordon at #14 - Say what you will about Gordon's injury history but you cannot deny that he possesses offensive talent when he is on the court. He averaged over 21 fantasy points a game last year. He is on a better team, in a role that should suit him (potential 6^th man of the year according to Daryl Morey), and he will be playing for one of the most fantasy friendly coaches around.

Much like Biyombo, I see Gordon filling a very crucial role for Tyler this coming season. Don't forget, Eric Gordon was once the highest paid fantasy player in our league. Now he is on a $0, keeperless contract. He may not have ever lived up to his all-star expectation but value is undeniably there.

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Drafting Ben Simmons at #1 - Ultimately, I think we all want our favorite players on our fantasy teams. It's just more fun that way. Getting to cheer for the same guy because he gets you fantasy points and because he is your favorite player is a unique joy. I have little doubt in my mind that Brandon Ingram will one day become one of Tyler's favorite players. I suspect Tyler feels the same way. On top of that, Ingram clearly has superstar potential. I can only imagine how hard this decision must have been for Tyler. From the outside, the #1 selection may seem like a lay-up, but I think Tyler hit a home run. Ben Simmons' floor is Lamar Odom. That's really high. His ceiling is Magic Johnson. That's even higher. I believe having Ben Simmons on a $10 rookie contract is instantly one of the best assets in our entire league. Tyler has his superstar for years to come.

Monty (Basket Brawlers)

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Receiving a 2017 1^st rounder for #14 & #16 - Monty's team has quickly become a contender for most exciting team of the future. I'm not sure what direction he is going to take the team in but as of right now, it looks like his options are almost unlimited. He could make a push for the playoffs, with the rights moves maybe even the finals or he could concern himself with building around the likes of Ingram, Russell, Dunn, and Payton (Four NBA starters under 23 years old). Maybe he goes for all of the above. Either way, I am a huge fan of first rounders and even though I expect Tyler to make the pick less valuable than most, this is a piece that fits in line with that Ingram-Russell-Dunn-Payton core.

It looked like Monty had too many picks. He was able to flip that excess into something with lasting value.

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Drafting Kris Dunn at #3 - All aboard the Kris Dunn hype train. This guy is good. He is a triple-double waiting to happen. Yes, maybe he and Rubio get in each others' way for a time but talented players find their way onto the floor and I believe Dunn has the talent. He dominated the Big East, he challenged his fellow lottery prospects to 1-on-1 NBA workouts, he dominated Summer League. Besides Ingram and Simmons, Dunn is the only guy from this draft class that has both ROY and eventual All-Star potential.

Drafting Brandon Ingram at #2 - Brandon Ingram is being pegged as the offensive wing threat of the Lakers' future. Luke Walton has already publicly complimented his basketball IQ (One of the most important skills for an NBA player to have). The opportunity is wide open for him to take the reigns and become the face of his team. All signs point to Ingram becoming a franchise player, in both the NBA and in the Juicy Basketballs League.

This is a great fit for Monty and the structure of his fantasy team. Much like Simmons, I believe Ingram's rookie contract will soon become one of the most valuable assets around.

'16 Playoff Predictions - #1 Team nipple versus #4 Por Favors

Fantasy Points Per Week: NIPP – 1087, PF – 917

Fantasy Points Per Game: NIPP – 31.8, PF – 28.3

Games In Week One: NIPP – 33, PF – 37

Projected Games in Week Two: NIPP – 35, PF – 37

Personnel Notes:

NIPP – Jimmy Butler (Day to day), Shelvin Mack (Added 2/28/16)

PF – Kristaps Porzingis (Day to day), Danilo Gallinari (Out one month to Season), Kobe Bryant (Day to day), Mike Conley (day to day)

The next step won't be so easy.

The excitement just keeps coming. The best season in franchise history for either team, two dominate playoff victories, two of the strongest team identities in the league, and that's just so far. So who gets to go to the finals for the first time?

In one corner, we have this season's highest scoring Point Guard, Small Forward and Center all on the same team. In the other corner, we have a squad containing 12 players averaging 25+ fppg in their last 30. Team nipple has a strong supporting cast around their Big Three. In fact, Milsap, Butler, and Gannis give this team more of a Big Six vibe. Meanwhile, even though Por Favors leads the league in 25+ guys, only one of those 12 players is averaging 35+ (Melo).

So let's see if we can find some sort of bottom line here. Going off of last 30s, Team nipple's entire squad is averaging 28.9 fppg, while their bet 10 guys are averaging 35.0 fppg. Meanwhile, Por Favors' coinciding numbers are 27.7 fppg and 30.7 fppg. So, depending on how much you think the bench matters, Chris's point producing advantage lies somewhere between 4 and 1 point per game. That range is rather large actually; it means the difference between a 300 point victory and a coin-flip finish.

Another way we can see the bench coming into play here is in the game advantage. Despite Gallinari, Kobe, and Conley all sporting red letters on the Por Favors bench, Nathaniel was still able to grab a pretty sizable game advantage. This tilts the scales to just about even, with Team nipple projected to score 2162 and Por Favor projected to score 2094. That's just about as close as they come.

Should I tie up most of my money in keeping my stars? How valuable is a strong bench? Is streaming a viable option in this league?

How this all plays out will give us insight into a lot of burning questions and maybe even define a new meta game for this league as a whole. I can't wait.

Last round, Por Favors threw up a very impressive 2096 while Team nipple totaled a slightly more impressive 2342. While it seems like those numbers might easily be swapped after two weeks, I will only believe it when I see it. I'm not betting against a team with five 40+ guys.

Prediction: Team nipple

'16 Playoff Predictions - #4 Por Favors versus #5 Balls to the Wall

Fantasy Points Per Week: PF – 900, BTTW – 856

Fantasy Points Per Game: PF – 28.0, BTTW – 25.5

Games In Week One: PF – 37, BTTW – 35

Projected Games in Week Two: PF – 34, BTTW – 36

Personnel Notes:

PF – Monta Ellis (Acquired in trade involving Willie Cauley-Stein) and George Hill (Acquired in the same trade)

BTTW – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out of Season), and Nikola Mirotic (Out 2 to 3 weeks)

Who will elevate to Round 2?

Before I get into the analysis of this matchup, I would like to take a moment to congratulate Brett on an extremely successful first regular season in our great league. Taking a team that has never gotten higher than 8^th place and turning it into a legitimate contender is not easily done. Especially for someone who is new to how we do things.

And as a reward for all of his hard work, Balls to the Wall will be facing Por Favors in the first round.

Por Favors is not unfamiliar with this position. In the last 3 seasons, they have been 6th seed, the 3rd seed and the 8th seed and, somehow, have finished 6th all three years. Every year, they have been good, but have been missing that je ne sais quoi to propel them into becoming a great team.

While Por Favors might lack the overwhelming superstar power of Team nipple, The Defending Champions, or Pippen Aint Eazy, this team may have finally found their calling card: the best bench in the league.

And now that we are in the playoffs, that critical asset only becomes more critical. It is not often that a team plays 35 games and is still at a game disadvantage, but that is the position that Balls to the Wall is in. And with guys like Gallinari, Conely, and Kobe ready on the bench, I doubt Por Favors is going to relinquish that advantage in week two.

Unfortunately for Balls to the wall, this point is escalated by the injuries to MKG and Mirotic.

On top of all that, Por Favors have really seemed to come together as of late, sporting 2332 fantasy points in the final two matchups of the season.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, there is hope for Balls to the Wall. In the final two weeks, they have managed to score 2136 fantasy points. While that isn't as high as Por Favors, it still good enough for top 4 in the league. Meanwhile, Lowry, Wall, and Aldridge have all seen upticks from their season averages to their last 30 averages. All this indicates that BTTW will be bringing some heat of their own.

So what happens when two hot teams meet in the playoffs? Who gets their first franchise playoff win this year? As always, I'm going with the game advantage.

Prediction: Por Favors

'16 Playoff Predictions - #3 Admiral Kryptonite versus #6 MAMA said Knock you out

Fantasy Points Per Week: K – 911, MAMA – 817

Fantasy Points Per Game: K – 27.0, MAMA – 23.9

Games In Week One: K – 35, MAMA – 35

Projected Games in Week Two: K – 35, MAMA – 34

Personnel Notes:

K – Patrick Beverly (Added 1/31/16), Archie Goodwin (Added 1/31/16), and Willie Cauley-Stein (Acquired in trade involving Monta Ellis and George Hill), Devin Booker (Acquired in trade involving Rajon Rondo), Jerian Grant (Added 2/21/16)

MAMA – Stanley Johnson (Day to day), JaMychal Green (Added 2/21/16), Maurice Harkless (Added 2/21/16)

Can Klay Thompson help fuel an upset?

The most intriguing part of this matchup has to be how enigmatic these two teams are. Evolution has been the common theme here. Admiral Kryptonite has always been one of the more active teams in the transactions market and that is easily seen in the fact that Monta Ellis, George Hill, and Rajon Rondo have all been shipped off in the last month. Meanwhile, after starting 1-6, MAMA said Knock you out has won 8 of its last 9.

All of that is to say that even though Admiral Kryptonite has the clear advantage in both FPPW and FPPG on the season as whole, those numbers might be a bit misleading.

Furthermore, the game advantage seems to be basically nonexistent. So I guess we're going to have to take a closer look.

Last year, MAMA started the season red hot, with a record of 10-2 after 12 weeks, before stumbling in the final month. Despite that stumble, they finished 11-5 and held onto the #4 seed. From there, Rich put together a very nice run, averaging a hefty 1945 fantasy points across his 3 playoff matchups before falling to The-Soon-To-Be-Defending-Champions, Team Penetration in the championship.

The pattern with this team seems to be that they can go through spells of being very hot and very cold. Maybe that's just how it goes when your best players are shooting scorers like Klay Thompson and Gordon Hayward.

Meanwhile, despite what you might think with all the personnel changes, Admiral Kryptonite has had a rather consistent year. When looking at FPPW on the season, Admiral Kryptonite has the 3^rd lowest standard deviation and the 2^nd lowest range. Meaning, they stuck relatively close to their average FPPW all year.

But when your numbers are lower, inconsistency can be a good thing. For every bust, there is a boom. While it is not too unlikely that MAMA finishes this round with something in the range of 1350, it is just as likely that they drop something like 1950. And if its the latter, Admiral Kyrptonite is in from some trouble.

Over the last two matchups of the season, Admiral Kryptonite produced 1935 fantasy points while MAMA said Knock you out produced 1891.

In the end, I believe MAMA said Knock you out would have to step too far away from their average to overcome Admiral Kryptonite's consistency. And while this is certainly going be a close match, the conservative in me always like to take the consistent choice.

Also, I'm not afraid of any bitch ass jinx!

Prediction: Admiral Kryptonite