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| Wendell Carter, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zhaire Smith |
Intro
As more sophisticated sports data enters public knowledge, so too do opportunities to take deep statistical looks at what an athlete is providing. Here, I attempt to take a precise look at all the statistical evidence we have for the incoming 2018 rookie class from the last year and, from there, provide a "draft board" based off of numbers alone. My hope is to provide a different yet rich look at everything these young men have accomplished this year. The list may counter public opinion & be outright misleading at time but I believe this exercise will also provide a lot of undeniable evidence that may have been overlooked by the general public thus far.
This is not meant to guess where players will be selected or suggest who will have the best NBA career. This list is simply meant to comparatively gauge the production & effectiveness of each prospect's most recent year of basketball.
Enjoy.
Methods
All players stats were converted into z-scores (the amount of standard deviations away from the mean their datum is) based off a set group of 85 eligible prospects. This serves as a universal translation that helps compare all stats evenly.
The formula is comprised of three sub-forumlas:
Context Statistics- Meant to gauge how unusual a player's impact is for someone their age. Made of a player's age & minutes played.
Categorical Statistics- Meant to gauge how valuable the layout of a player's categorical profile is. Made of a player's field goal %, 3-pointer made, 3-pointer %, free throw %, total rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, & points (all per 100 possessions).
Advanced Statistics- Meant to gauge the overall productivity of a player's game. Made of a player's net rating, PER, true shooting %, win shares per 40 minutes, & bpm.
All stats were weighted uniquely based off my discretion. Ultimately, each player's final score can be broken down into their z-scores:
-28% Context (68% age, 32% minutes played)
-32% Categories Per 100 Poss (2% field goal percentage, 22% 3-pointer made, 11% 3-point percentage, 14% free throw percentage, 7% rebounds, 13% assists, 12% steals, 11% blocks, 1% turnovers, 7% points)
-40% Advanced (16% net rating, 16% player efficiency rating, 18% true shooting percentage, 17% win shares per 40 mins, 31% box-score plus/minus)
All weightings are meant to reflect the importance of their respective stats in the context of the NBA.
Notes
-All data taken from sports-reference.com
-All players stats taken from 2017-2018 season
-De'Anthony Melton stats taken from 2016-2017 season
-Luka Doncic advanced stats taken realgm.com & apbr.org/metrics
-Luka Doncic 100 Possessions is based off of 1.75 possessions per minute
-Luka Doncic was given a WS/40 of .2
-Other internationals (such as Musa) and players who did not play in the NCAA (such as Anfernee Simons & Mitchell Robinson) were omitted from the list. I considered constructing their data sets out of whatever I could find (like I did with Doncic) but I feel that process provided diminishing returns.
-My final list of names was cross-referenced with u/Ktack13 of r/NBA_Draft (Thanks!)
Let's get to it...
RANKINGS
The overall list can be viewed here, but the highlights follow:
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| Carsen Edwards |
1. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Context Score: 0.743
Category Score: 0.483
Advanced Score: 1.684
Final Score: 1.036
-The chart-topper, Jaren Jackson Jr., has been a draft darling for many over these last few month as there are plenty of reasons to be interested in his game. JJJ is one of the youngest players while still getting a solid amount of minutes, he provides in a lot of categories that NBA GMs are searching for (Defensive stats, high efficiency, & high 3-point rate), and he passes all advanced stat measures. In regards to all the statistics that are widely trusted, Jackson seems to have no real blemishes.
2. Wendell Carter Jr.
Context Score: 0.816
Category Score: 0.066
Advanced Score: 1.475
Final Score: 0.839
-Carter is an unusual choice for the top five, let alone second but there is actually a lot of data to support him being a more concrete choice than most of his contemporaries. Wendell got big minutes for a guy his age and maybe should have gotten more considering his advanced stat measures. WCJ's biggest knock will be the layout of his categorical profile since his way of playing has become a bit out of fashion in the NBA as of late.
3. Trae Young
Context Score: 0.669
Category Score: 0.953
Advanced Score: 0.644
Final Score: 0.750
-Mr. Hot Topic comes in a lot higher than I would have expected but his strengths are clear. While his advanced stats are somewhat muted, Trae Young played a major role for a guy his age and in a style that is highly coveted in the NBA right now (high 3-point volume, FT%, & assist rate). While Young may not be an eventual all-star, it does appear that he could be a quality starter while playing a rare role.
4. DeAndre Ayton
Context Score: 0.610
Category Score: -0.206
Advanced Score: 1.548
Final Score: 0.724
-Fourth may seem low for a young man often touted as going first but there will definitely be some questions for Ayton to answer once he enters the NBA. An interesting case, DeAndre provided a lot for a prospect his age, is supported by the advanced stats & condemned by his categorical layout (a relative lack of shooting & defensive evidence). While Ayton has done almost everything to prove his strengths, the lack of diversity in his game creates a certain level of doubt in his ability to translate effectively to the NBA.
5. Mikal Bridges
Context Score: -0.267
Category Score: 0.590
Advanced Score: 1.511
Final Score: 0.719
-One of my personal favorites, Mikal Bridges has a statistical profile to die for. Bridges is supported by all the advanced stats and he provides in all the categories that every NBA team needs (shooting efficiency and defensive stats). Mikal's only downside is his advanced age, which some may claim as oft overblown but can contribute a lot to bust potential. I love Mikal but it would be ignorant to overlook the fact that he played against a lot of players younger than himself.
6. Marvin Bagley III
Context Score: 0.913
Category Score: -0.303
Advanced Score: 1.375
Final Score: 0.709
-The Duke prospect garnering the most attention has gotten into that position for good reason. Marvin Bagley played a more central role & has a lot of support from the advanced stats. However, what sets him behind here is the lack of diversity in his categorical statistics. MB3 may be an elite rebounder & scorer at the rim but I'm not sure he will be able survive on those two categories alone in the NBA. That doubt lands him here.
7. Luka Doncic
Context Score: 0.962
Category Score: 0.486
Advanced Score: 0.480
Final Score: 0.617
-One of the biggest tragedies of this exercise is the inability to cleanly translate Luka Doncic's numbers. Luka comes in above-average in all measures but is lacking anything noticeable outside of his elevated minutes logged. In reality, all of Doncic's numbers are probably muted here due to his advanced level of competition. While the numbers may not recognize his unprecedented dominance, I do think it is remarkable that Doncic was still able to clock in this high despite everything working against him.
8. Zhaire Smith
Context Score: 0.941
Category Score: -0.182
Advanced Score: 1.011
Final Score: 0.610
-The sleeper everyone is waking up to, Zhaire Smith has a very tantalizing profile. Zhaire is a younger prospects with high impact & production on the season. Like Ayton & Bagley, there is concern with the layout of Smith's categorical profile but his concerns aren't even necessarily as concrete as theirs. While it may be unconventional, the effectiveness of Zhaire Smith's game has emerged with lottery potential.
9. Killian Tillie
Context Score: 0.156
Category Score: 0.204
Advanced Score: 1.241
Final Score: 0.606
-Killian Tillie is far from the most exciting prospect but he does have a lot of statistical proof on his side. Though he isn't a freshman, he does seem to be ahead of the curve as far as impact & the same goes for his categorical layout (shooting efficiency). Throw in a lot of advanced stat love & we have a prospect with good evidence for making an NBA rotation. Often prospects can be chosen solely on their ceiling but Tillie is making a strong case with his floor.
10. Carsen Edwards
Context Score: 0.349
Category Score: 0.575
Advanced Score: 0.634
Final Score: 0.535
-Probably the most bizarre name in the top of these ranks, Carsen Edwards is generally loved by all statistical measurements. While not a freshman, Edwards did play a central role as an underclassman & provided a relatively diverse and efficient game that NBA teams are looking for these days. And even though nothing necessarily jumps off the page, all the advanced stats are on his side as well. Like Tillie, Carsen may lack upside but has done much to prove himself to be a likely NBA rotation player.
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| Gary Clark |
11. Gary Clark
Context Score: -1.560
Category Score: 0.247
Advanced Score: 2.199
Final Score: 0.522
-Gary Clark is probably another surprise this early but surprises can be common when dealing with statistical formulas. Clark's strengths and weaknesses are clear. While he is one of the oldest players in the draft conversation, this Cincinnati product has done everything a player could to prove his worth. Gary passes all advanced measures with flying colors & is ahead of the curve in categorical contributions as well. Bust potential is very high with a player this much older than those he's being compared to but the evidence of his production this year is undeniable.
12. Jontay Porter
Context Score: 0.852
Category Score: 0.230
Advanced Score: 0.353
Final Score: 0.454
-Another personal favorite, MPJ's younger brother did much to make a name for himself this year. Jontay Porter is not only one of the youngest players in this conversation, he is also ahead of the curve in all relevant statistical measurements. While Jontay's profile may not look monstrous in any way, his play style and productivity are all in tune with what the NBA is looking for. Porter has a high probability of cutting it on the NBA level with an added bonus of upside due to his extreme youth.
16. Mohamed Bamba
Context Score: 0.170
Category Score: -0.227
Advanced Score: 0.972
Final Score: 0.363
-A rank this low may seem shocking for a prospect often pegged for the top 7 but the numbers simply aren't on fire for Mohamed Bamba. Though the advanced stats do like Bamba, his age and minutes played are only slightly ahead of the curve & his categorical layout is far from the current NBA ideal (poor shooting & questionable peripheral stats). Mo Bamba is a physical specimen & he is a marvel to see but his statistical evidence is a different story that leaves me wondering if he's any better than, say, Udoka Azubuike.
18. Miles Bridges
Context Score: 0.318
Category Score: 0.277
Advanced Score: 0.408
Final Score: 0.341
-Miles Bridges is another highly touted prospect that the statistics don't exactly love. It has been a common criticism of his to question Bridges' efficiency & productivity but many scouts still like Miles due to the dynamic role he's capable of playing. While none of his statistics scream elite production, they are all still ahead of the curve which implies that Bridges is capable of providing rotation production at the NBA level.
21. Landry Shamet
Context Score: -0.284
Category Score: 0.436
Advanced Score: 0.539
Final Score: 0.275
-Shamet is someone I have mentioned before as I think his strengths are clear. While Landry is a tad older than the average prospect, he does provide a game that jives with what the NBA is looking for right now. His categorical layout is above-average (high shooting efficiency & some signs of peripheral stats) and the advanced stats show that he was productive in doing so. Though there is a good amount of bust potential here, I do think Shamet has a decent opportunity to get by on his shooting alone.
22. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Context Score: 0.706
Category Score: 0.089
Advanced Score: 0.117
Final Score: 0.273
-This may seem like a low ranking for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but the statistical evidence simply does not back him but this year. SGA is very young for the role he is playing but there is little proof that his game is productive or in tune with the NBA. While there are no real clear negatives to his game (outside the absence of shooting), no measurement loves Gilgeous-Alexander either. There is still plenty of room for him to grown into a productive rotation player but the journey may be longer than others are hoping for.
25. Jacob Evans
Context Score: -0.061
Category Score: 0.206
Advanced Score: 0.446
Final Score: 0.227
-Jacob Evans is the Cincinnati prospect who is getting more attention and that is most likely due to the coveted position he plays. However, even though Evans plays the wing his shooting isn't all that great & he gets by more on the defensive end. There is some diversity to his game & the advanced stats suggest that he can be productive but because he is contextually behind the curve, the bust potential flag must be waved here.
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| Keita Bates-Diop |
Context Score: -0.797
Category Score: 0.264
Advanced Score: 0.666
Final Score: 0.128
-Keita Bates-Diop is a player that I've heard a fair amount of excitement for but these numbers have him barely above-average. While Bates-Diop does have a favorable play style (some signs of shooting & defense) and the advanced stats do like him, his advanced age makes it all very questionable. It is a combination of good-not-great statistics coupled with major doubts of progression that has KBD in the middle of the pack.
32. Collin Sexton
Context Score: 0.647
Category Score: -0.026
Advanced Score: -0.147
Final Score: 0.114
-Another hot take by the data, Collin Sexton is a prospect getting a lot of lottery buzz that is listed all the way down here. Many love the context of Sexton's play this year (playing a central role for a quality team as a freshman) but everything else about his profile leaves me wanting more. Sexton showed minor signs of peripheral stats and questionable shooting this year. Meanwhile, the advanced stats like many others before Collin. All this leads me to believe that Sexton may have a much bumpier road of ahead of him that many would like to think.
37. Malik Newman
Context Score: -0.063
Category Score: 0.153
Advanced Score: -0.035
Final Score: 0.017
-Malik Newman may be on the older side and his advanced stats are pretty bland but he does provide a play style that the NBA wants right now (shooting & some defensive evidence). There may not be much room for improvement nor does his game seem particularly dynamic at this point but there is a chance Newman's shooting ability & defense can translate which makes him a reasonable choice at this point in ranks.
47. Kevin Knox
Context Score: 1.233
Category Score: -0.283
Advanced Score: -0.763
Final Score: -0.050
-Here is a prospect who's stock has fallen quite a bit over the last few months. Maybe it has sometime to do with his statistical output. Because even though Kevin Knox has one of the most exciting contexts out of all prospects, he production was simply below-average for the purposes of the NBA. Meanwhile, his play style did not bare fruits in the categories that NBA GMs are looking for. He has a lot of hype & will certainly be selected earlier than this, but the evidence suggests that Knox will be a project.
49. Robert Williams
Context Score: -0.270
Category Score: -0.973
Advanced Score: 0.803
Final Score: -0.066
-Robert Williams is a great example of why I devalue the statistical categories that I do. While the advanced stats love him & his context score pegs him as average, Williams suffers for having a replaceable play style. While it is clear that Robert Williams is elite at what he does, I question the general demand for his skill set in the NBA right now. Williams shows signs of defense & high efficiency but there is no evidence of comfort with the ball which may make it difficult for him to prove his worth on the NBA level.
58. Troy Brown
Context Score: 1.048
Category Score: -0.237
Advanced Score: -1.050
Final Score: -0.202
-Troy Brown is a young wing who played a central role this year. However, the lack of shooting & peripheral stats leaves me wanting. Meanwhile, Brown's advanced measurements are clearly below-average when compared to his fellow draft hopefuls. There is a lot of upside with a prospect like this but if we're just going off the evidence we have this year, Troy Brown simply didn't cut it on a potential NBA level.
63. Lonnie Walker
Context Score: 0.469
Category Score: -0.103
Advanced Score: -0.938
Final Score: -0.277
-Another example of a young wing playing a central role whose play provided highly questionable results. Wishful thinking can run rampant in NBA draft circles but the evidence is pretty concerning here. Lonnie Walker showed signs of decent shooting and minor defense but all the advanced stats are telling me that his play was comparatively below-average. There is still time for Walker to develop into the rare kind of player that every NBA team wants but the evidence suggests that his road of development will be a long one.
82. Michael Porter Jr.
Context Score: -0.791
Category Score: 0.237
Advanced Score: -1.999
Final Score: -0.946
-I wanted to finish with Michael Porter Jr. because this is probably the most misleading ranking of them all but I think it also does a lot to remind us of what this exercise is about in the first place. While MPJ has been a prospect with #1 buzz for over a year now, his statistical year has been derailed by his major back injury. Porter Jr. gets knocked heavily for his minuscule minutes logged, but it is his actual play that gets crushed by most advanced stat measurements. This is all understandable since most of those minutes were him finding his rhythm again. Obviously MPJ will go much higher than this but facts are the facts & he had a disaster of a statistical campaign this year.
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