2017 Juicy Basketballs League Season Preview (Part 1)

Who will be top fantasy dog this year?

I feel like our league has sure gotten interesting. Before we go any further, here is a quick look at what each team did in the regular season last year:

How much will this change next year?

The NBA was founded in 1946 and was initially known as the BAA. It didn't really resemble what we know as the NBA today until after its merger with the ABA in 1977 which bumped the league to 22 teams. Many consider that to be the beginning of the “modern NBA” (Though the 3 point line didn't even show up for another two years). So for the first 30 years or so, the NBA was kinda weird. 

I think it all counts of course but its impossible to ignore how different things were back then. Things on the court have changed but, even more, the business side has grown a great deal.  The ways players are drafted, traded and signed have evolved to form a fun game that we like to play.

I love comparing our league to the NBA because I think that was always the ultimate goal of fantasy sports. We all want the experience of running an NBA franchise. And like the NBA, our league has gone through some weird beginnings.

Looking back on the past 4 years, it is noticeable in how we played the game. In our first season, almost everyone was trying to win that very year. Nobody wanted to trade for a guy that produced significantly less fantasy points just because of their “potential”. We saw first round picks flying around like crazy. Eric Gordon got picked up for over $100 dollars. Every franchise was in win-now mode.

That was just naturally going to happen in the inaugural season. The 50s NBA didn't have teams intentionally tanking like we see today. 

The rules changed and the intentions of the franchises changed so the way to play the game was changed.

Here are some things at play for the JBL this year that are brand new:

Extended Contracts. We have a lot of these floating around now. Since they cannot be dropped without penalty, they define the teams that hold them.

Restricted Free Agency. Our first RFA was last year and it was a weak draft. I feel like that was almost a practice round of what the real RFA will be like.

Talent Disparity. We have some strong teams at the top like never before and that makes it difficult for the rest of the league to keep up in the conventional sense. Owners will have to be creative in their strategies, spawning more ways to play this game we all love.

For these reasons, I have a feeling that 2017 will be for the JBL what 1977 was for the NBA: the dawning of the modern era.

So with the modern era upon us, I figured we could use a season preview. Here are my thought on each team in our league, which NBA franchise matches their narrative, and why I think so. This is week one of a four part series, enjoy!

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TimAin't Duncan (Nick Coromelas)

Can Noel be a franchise player?

2016 Fantasy Total: 12,285 (10th)

2016 Regular Season: 5-11 (T-9th)

2016 Playoffs: None

Extended Contracts: Jrue Holiday (1yr, $29), Chandler Parsons (3yrs, $29), Luol Deng (1yr, $27), Nikola Vucevic (3yrs, $28)

Expiring Contracts: Nerlens Noel (FA, $22)

Intriguing Players: Marcus Smart (2yrs, $11), Brandon Knight (1yr, $42), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1yr, $7)

NBA Comparison: Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been in a weird spot ever since they traded away Steve Nash. In the four seasons since doing so, they have averaged 36 wins a year. That sounds bad but there has actually been some highlights. Just two years ago, Phoenix surprised everyone by winning 48 games and contending for a playoff spot. That was the year where they decided to play two point guards and surround them with shooters, something that has become somewhat of a fad in the NBA as of late. It was also the year their coach finished second for COTY. It is uncommon for a team that is supposed to be rebuilding to accomplishes so much.

Now, Phoenix seems to be in a tough spot of deciding which direction to go. On one hand, they still have guys like Bledsoe, Knight, and Chandler who are ready to help a team now; on the other hand, they have guys like Booker and Len who have shown promise but probably will not be their best for a few more years. 

 

I suspect that this will be the year where the Suns fully embrace the rebuild and go with their young guys. Knight will probably be shipped off. Bledsoe may be traded as well. Meanwhile, they will likely try to cultivate their younger core. 

 

Because of this, Phoenix has been a team that has had my attention for some time now. Clearly this is a franchise that wants to succeed. Unfortunately, it seems like their best option may be to get worse before they get better. Personally, I'm pretty excited to see what these baby Suns have got. They have a lot of exciting talent and I they are headed in the right direction.

In the JBL, Andrew Baron-Vartian liked to trade away his first rounders. The only first rounder he ever used was in 2013 when he picked Trey Burke at #4 and subsequently traded him away for J.R. Smith that same summer. Clearly, Nick inherited a team where future-minded assets were not emphasized. There is nothing wrong with that but it has made it all the harder for Nick to cultivate his own rebuild.

Being a new owner is extremely difficult. Rich had a tough first season as well before coming on as contender over the last couple years. It takes time for the team to become your own.

Therefore, I expect this season to be the season where Nick takes a few large steps in the right direction as the team starts to become his. He has a lot of cap space, he has young players on good contracts, and he finally has some draft picks to work with as well. Maybe his record won't be picture perfect but I do think there is a lot to be optimistic about here. 

 

Nick's extended contracts are all short and small. I see them as all being highly tradeable or keepable. That offers Nick more flexibility than most. Meanwhile, guys like Noel, Smart, and Caldwell-Pope are still emerging and may still have their best years ahead of them. It it always nice to have guys like that.

 

Chris proved that it can take as little as one season to rebuild any team into a contender (In 2014, he finished with a record of 3-13. In the two years since, he has won 27 regular season games). I believe Nick is in a prime position to make some proactive moves, making him one of the most dangerous teams in the league this year. Progress will be made, I predict this team will average 750 fantasy points per week.

All-NBA 5^th Team (Matt Wong)

How much is LeBron worth?

2016 Fantasy Total: 13,315 (8th)

2016 Regular Season: 5-11 (T-9th)

2016 Playoffs: None

Extended Contracts: None

Expiring Contracts: Trevor Ariza (FA, $1)

Intriguing Players: Dennis Schroder (2yrs, $1), Ryan Anderson (2yrs, $11), Hassan Whiteside (2yrs, $46), LeBron James (2yrs, $99), Dwayne Wade (2yrs, $20)

NBA Comparison: New York Knicks

The Knicks have always been crapped on for making bad moves but I like what they have done this off-season. I think they have a shot at making the playoffs next year and I think that's all the fan-base really wants anymore. Deep down, the smart thing for the Knicks to do would probably be to trade Carmelo to a team like Boston and start fresh with Porzingis and the nice pieces they got for Melo. But that would never happen because Carmelo likes playing for New York and New York is ultimately happy to have him (even if he couldn't single-handedly will them to the level of success everyone might have hoped for).

I believe Matt is facing a similar decision that the Knicks recently had to make: build around the current core or do a soft reboot. I believe Matt has the most intriguing keeper decisions to make this fall because I can see a strong argument for two opposite directions. He could use his excess cap space to pick up a star or two to support LeBron or he could let LeBron's big contract go and focus on building around the likes of Schroder and Whiteside. 

 

Matt has a unique advantage of having no extended contracts on his books. That gives him the flexibility to go in any direction he pleases. He could drop all his players today and start fresh this Auction Draft if he fancied. 

 

Schroder and Whiteside are on great value contracts. Focusing on them as a core could pay hefty dividends down the road. 

 

But superstars are hard to come by, even in fantasy sports. LeBron James is the biggest superstar of all and this is the smallest contract he has ever been on. Every owner in the league would like to have him on their team. Even with the biggest contract in the league, he still holds value. This will be a big decision for the future of Matt's team with two paths that lead very different directions. Both can lead to success if followed correctly. All I know is that I'm glad I'm not the one deciding. 

 

Predicting this team's production this upcoming season depends on this one stipulation. With LeBron, this team can put up over 825 fantasy points a week. Without LeBron, I expect closer to 775.