The 5 advanced statistics I will be consulting are Player Efficiency Rating (PER), True Shooting Percentage (TS%), Win Shares (WS), Box-Score Plus-Minus (BPM) and Usage Percentage (Usg%). While none of this statistics are perfect, they all provide their own evaluations of basketball play. I believe if players are matching up similarly in all these measures, it is more than a coincidence.
With each NBA prospect here, I conducted a search based off their advanced stats in all 5 mentioned categories. I then combed through all the results and picked out players of similar positions & age. For each prospect, I selected a few comparison who give some perspective to what we can expect from their game so far. I am not claiming that the prospects are necessarily "as good as" or "plays like" those I'm comparing them to. It is more that I am trying to frame the prospects' production so far into something reasonably fair.
I used sports-reference.com as my source for all data. I chose not to evaluate Luka Doncic or Michael Porter Jr. because I believe their data is skewed. I know there are other lovely prospects to evaluate as well (Such as Collin Sexton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges or Kevin Knox) but I will leave those evaluations for another time.
With all that said & without further ado, here are my findings on statistical player comparisons:
DeAndre Ayton (FR)
Adv. Stats: 32.6per/.650ts%/26.6usg%/7.6ws/10.9bpm
Similar Production:
Cody Zeller (FR) - 31.3per/.665ts%/24.3usg%/6.8ws/12.5bpm
Jakob Poeltl (SO) - 31.1per/.665ts%/25.7usg%/6.8ws/11.2bpm
Anthony Davis (FR) - 35.1per/.654ts%/18.8usg%/9.9ws/18.7bpm
Ayton & Bagley's advanced stats are actually very similar so they yield almost exactly the same collection of names. Ayton stacks up pretty well when compared to quality rotation bigs like Zeller & Poeltl but there is a definite difference between his freshman year & the freshman year of future All-Stars like AD. All of this gives me pause when wondering if Ayton is actually a franchise talent.
Marvin Bagley III (FR)
Adv. Stats: 30.6per/.643ts%/26.3usg%/6.9ws/10.7bpm
Similar Production:
Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 30.7per/.641ts%/27.6usg%/6.7ws/10.9bpm
Zach Collins (FR) - 30.9per/.703ts%/24.8usg%/5.0ws/11.5bpm
Nikola Vucevic (JR) - 27.1per/.578ts%/25.5usg%/6.6ws/9.5bpm
Karl Anthony-Towns (FR) - 31.4per/.627ts%/23.7usg%/6.4ws/17.3bpm
I know Vucevic doesn't quite fit because of his low TS% & older age but I wanted to add him here to deepen perspective. Again, when compared to All-Star level talent (KAT), Bagley is noticeably behind in BPM. Also, the likes of AD & KAT were able to have elevated stats while also having lower usage. Out of everyone here, Bagley's stats are most in line with Okafor's. Though, I'm not sure that's as damming as it sounds.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (FR)
Adv. Stats: 26.9per/.647ts%/23.5usg%/4.6ws/15.4bpm
Similar Production:
Joel Embiid (FR) - 28.2per/.655ts%/23.4usg%/3.4ws/14.9bpm
Derrick Williams (SO) - 32.8per/.690ts%/28.9usg%/7.9ws/11.8bpm
Markieff Morris (JR) - 29.1per/.642ts%/25.5usg%/6.0ws/12.3bpm
What an odd collection of names this is. Ultimately, I believe Jackson stacks up well here because he is young, has the highest BPM with a lower USG%, & has his stat composition most in tune with Embiid. While Williams & Morris may have more flashy WSs & PERs, those stats can be misleading depending on team composition & USG%. Overall, this exercise has further proven to me that JJJ will be a highly efficient NBA player.
Mohamed Bamba (FR)
Adv. Stats: 28.2per/.593ts%/21.3usg%/4.8ws/11.1bpm
Similar Production:
Nerlens Noel (FR) - 27.3per/.583ts%/17.4usg%/3.9ws/14.6bpm
Frank Kaminsky (JR) - 29.0per/.611ts%/25.5usg%/6.2ws/12.4bpm
Tyler Zeller (JR) - 26.6per/.601ts%/23.6usg%/6.1ws/9.7bpm
It isn't an exciting bunch for Bamba but I do think he measures up well all things considered. While his stats aren't as good as Kaminsky's or Zeller's, he is a couple years younger & doing it on a lower USG%. I would say his layout is more favorable than Noel's but that might be damming with faint praise. My biggest concern is Bamba's TS%.
Trae Young (FR)
Adv. Stats: 28.3per/.586ts%/37.1usg%/5.7ws/11.7bpm
Similar Production:
D'Angelo Russell (FR) - 26.6per/.573ts%/30.2usg%/6.8ws/11.7bpm
Trey Burke (SO) - 28.7per/.569ts%/28.3usg%/8.6ws/12.2bpm
Jimmer Fredette (SR) - 30.9per/.594ts%/37.8usg%/8.5ws/9.5bpm
Damian Lillard (JR) - 34.0per/.635ts%/33.0usg%/8.0ws/8.8bpm
Trae Young is a difficult one to figure out. Lillard is definitely a cut above in this group due to his high PER & TS% but there is hope for Young since I think he matches up pretty favorably with everyone else listed here. I believe his younger age excuses him from being genuinely pegged as a Fredette type, meanwhile Trae has DLo (the only other freshman) beat in both PER & TS%.
Mikal Bridges (JR)
Adv. Stats: 26.8per/.655ts%/23.2usg%/7.7ws/13.1bpm
Similar Production:
Victor Oladipo (JR) - 28.9per/.671ts%/22.2usg%/6.7ws/17.0bpm
Brice Johnson (SR) - 33.0per/.653ts%/25.0usg%/7.6ws/13.4bpm
Buddy Hield (SR) - 28.2per/.665ts%/30.2usg%/7.6ws/11.5bpm
Mikal Bridges is being touted as the ideal 3&D wing of this class. I personally love him & don't care who knows it so I know it's easy to get carried away in the Khris Middleton/Josh Richardson/Danny Green comparisons. Therefore, Bridges' statistical similarities to Brice Johnson & Buddy Hield are a bit sobering. Yet, he is younger than those two were & his lower USG% gives more opportunity for his game to grow. Maybe he isn't quite Oladipo's level but he's very close.
Wendell Carter Jr. (FR)
Adv. Stats: 28.2per/.628ts%/22.8usg%/6.0ws/13.5bpm
Similar Production:
Joel Embiid (FR) - 28.2per/.655ts%/23.4usg%/3.4ws/14.9bpm
TJ Leaf (FR) - 26.6per/.660ts%/22.0usg%/5.8ws/9.7bpm
Jordan Bell (JR) - 26.3per/.658ts%/18.0usg%/6.2ws/13.6bpm
Jahlil Okafor (FR) - 30.7per/.641ts%/27.6usg%/6.7ws/10.9bpm
Carter sports a very favorable layout of advanced stats & garnered some very interesting names in my search. The high BPM, high TS% & low USG% combination is very rare to see, which makes me believe Carter is almost certainly going to land in an NBA rotation. At this point, I think it would be fair to say Carter is a more interesting NBA prospect than Bagley because his stats imply a higher level of efficiency.
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