 |
| Jontay Porter |
Player comparisons can be tricky because there are many ways to look at a prospect. For the purposes of this exercise, I mean to compare prospects of this upcoming NBA draft with prospects of the past who put out similar production measures while playing similar positions during similar years in their career.
The 5 advanced statistics I will be consulting are Player Efficiency Rating (PER), True Shooting Percentage (TS%), Win Shares (WS), Box-Score Plus-Minus (BPM) and Usage Percentage (Usg%). While none of this statistics are perfect, they all provide their own evaluations of basketball play. I believe if players are matching up similarly in all these measures, it is more than a coincidence.
With each NBA prospect here, I conducted a search based off their advanced stats in all 5 mentioned categories. I then combed through all the results and picked out players of similar positions & age. For each prospect, I selected a few comparison who give some perspective to what we can expect from their game so far. I am not claiming that the prospects are necessarily "as good as" or "plays like" those I'm comparing them to. It is more that I am trying to frame the prospects' production so far into something reasonably fair.
With all that said & without further ado, here are my findings on statistical player comparisons:
Zhaire Smith (FR)
Adv. Stats: 22.9per/.618ts%/18.3usg%/5.6ws/12bpm
Similar Production:
Josh Hart (SO) - 22.2per/.636ts%/18.9usg%/5ws/11.6bpm
Lonzo Ball (FR) - 24.7per/.673ts%/18.1usg%/6.8ws/12.2bpm
Delon Wright (JR) - 27per/.639ts%/21.4usg%/7.3ws/13.1bpm
-While Zhaire Smith may not be a point guard like his comparisons, his game is mulitcategorical like those listed above. Many will doubt Smith’s ability to score but there is evidence that his game will get by on much more than putting the ball in the basket and though it may be unclear if Zhaire will be able to tangibly transition to the NBA, his most recent year of basketball provided rotation-level production.
Jontay Porter (FR)
Adv. Stats: 21.7per/.567ts%/22.5usg%/3.6ws/11.1bpm
Similar Production:
Sam Dekker (FR) - 22.8per/.595ts%/22.5usg%/4.1ws/10.4bpm
Justise Winslow (FR) - 22.3per/.572ts%/22.9usg%/5.5ws/10.4bpm
Otto Porter Jr. (SO) - 27.3per/.590ts%/24.1usg%/7.1ws/13.3bpm
-It is unclear how effective Jontay Porter will be in the NBA but his statistical profile has a lot of upside. Porter doesn’t stack up well with the NBA role players listed here but he is also on the younger side & playing a position where shooting efficiency is more unusual. This suggests to me that Porter has a chance of being a rotation staple with some upside for more.
Carsen Edwards (SO)
Adv. Stats: 25.4per/.596ts%/30.5usg%/6.1ws/9.1bpm
Similar Production:
Will Barton (SO) - 26.6per/.587ts%/25.8usg%/7.2ws/10.4bpm
Luke Kennard (SO) - 24.4per/.629ts%/24usg%/7.2ws/9.5bpm
Reggie Jackson (JR) - 26.9per/.618ts%/27.2usg%/5.6ws/9.1bpm
-The effectiveness of Carsen Edwards’ game could be rotation-level but it is unclear if that will translate to winning NBA basketball. While all his comparisons have their proficiencies, there are caveats to their game as well. I believe the same to be true with Edwards. This statistical profile paints the picture of a player who could flourish in the right situation & wash out in the wrong one.
Miles Bridges (SO)
Adv. Stats: 22.6per/.572ts%/27.1usg%/5.5ws/9.2bpm
Similar Production:
Jamal Murray (FR) - 22.7per/.590ts%/27.1usg%/6.1ws/9.1bpm
Andrew Wiggins (FR) - 21.4per/.563ts%/26.3usg%/4.9ws/8.5bpm
Gary Harris (SO) - 22.5per/.561ts%/26.8usg%/5.3ws/9.4bpm
-As the league’s focus shifts from volume to efficiency, it may be a difficult transition for a prospect like Miles Bridges. His game is very tantalizing as it presents itself front & center. However, the actual effectiveness & efficiency of his game is yet to be proven. None doubt the upside Bridges’ provides as he fills a central role but it is unclear if he can actually fill that role to a satisfactory standard.
Collin Sexton (FR)
Adv. Stats: 23.5per/.567ts%/32.9usg%/4.4ws/6.5bpm
Similar Production:
Jabari Parker (FR) - 28.4per/.558ts%/32.7usg%/5.5ws/6.6bpm
Camren Payne (SO) - 30.1per/.573ts%/31.5usg%/7.3ws/8.9bpm
Markelle Fultz (FR) - 27.9per/.558ts%/31.4usg%/3.8ws/9.1bpm
-Collin Sexton is the point guard everyone wants to like that lacks the appropriate statistical support. Much like Miles Bridges, the role Sexton plays oversells the actual impact of his game. Though he has shown some success with central responsibilities, I believe there is little evidence to show he ahead of the curve in an NBA sense.
Mohamed Bamba (FR)
Adv. Stats: 28.2per/.593ts%/21.3usg%/4.8ws/11.1bpm
Similar Production:
Jared Sullinger (SO) - 30.2per/.591ts%/27.9usg%/7.9ws/11.6bpm
Zach Collins (FR) - 30.9per/.703ts%/24.8usg%/5ws/11.5bpm
Frank Kaminsky (JR) - 29per/.611ts%/25.5usg%/6.2ws/12.4bpm
-To put it plainly, Mohamed Bamba is yet to prove much of anything on an NBA level yet. He has provided some rotation-level evidence but that isn’t even a given at this point. It is clear that Bamba possesses outlier upside due to his physical attributes but I don’t take it as a given that he can put it all together. In the end, the numbers tell a much more modest tale.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FR)
Adv. Stats: 21.3per/.579ts%/21.9usg%/5.2ws/9.2bpm
Similar Production:
Ron Baker (JR) - 23.8per/.568ts%/23.3usg%/6.5ws/10.4bpm
Bradley Beal (FR) - 22per/.575ts%/23usg%/5.7ws/8.6bpm
Tyus Jones (FR) - 20.4per/.575ts%/18.7usg%/6.5ws/9.4bpm
-There is good evidence that SGA will make the cut at an NBA level. His numbers may not jump off the page but they do bring a sense of reliability that is much more uncommon than one might think. The shooting & overall offensive impact of Gilgeous-Alexander probably isn’t where many scouts would like it to be but there is much to suggest that he’ll be able to get by in enough contrary ways & contribute to an NBA rotation.
No comments:
Post a Comment