Monday, March 12, 2018

2018 Pre-March Madness NBA Draft Prospects Power Rankings

Intro

Hello and welcome to my comprehensive look at the top prospects of the 2018 NBA draft. I have consulted many sources, compiled as much relevant data as I could and put all these prospects into the best order I could. Feel free to skip ahead to the list if you'd like but before we proceed to the rankings, I'd like to explain everything that I weighed:

-Average Draft Position (ADP). I consulted The Stepien, The Ringer, HoopsHype, NBA Draft Net, This Reddit Survey and Kevin Pelton’s List and took each player’s average draft position among the lists. If a player did not appear on a given list, I scored them as if they were the next player up.
-Age. The younger the player is, the better. It gives more opportunity for leaps forward and fortifies impressive statistical performances.
-Advanced Stats (PER, TS%, WS/40, and BPM). While no individual advanced stat is perfect, if all measures favor certain players, it is an indication of winning basketball play.
-Counting Stats per 40 minutes (Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals and 3-Pointers Made per 40). Like everything else here, counting stats can sometimes be misleading but I believe they (equalized by minutes) can serve as a good foundation for a given player's game.

All data is up to date as of 3/10/18.

All these measures were examined and weighed with various formulas before I ultimately settled with my own gut list. While you may disagree with my rankings, I have all the data I examined here for you to look at as for yourself. I also have some low/high player comparisons, links to highlights and a few words explaining my interpretations of everything I've gathered on each player so far. Enjoy!

 
Rankings
-Tier 1-
Everyone in this tier has an argument to go first and possesses reasonable franchise-altering expectations.

1. DeAndre Ayton
Age: 19.6
Height/Wing: 7'0"/7'5"
Position: C
ADP: 2
Player Comps (Low/High): Thomas Robinson/David Robinson
-
PER: 31.7
TS%: 0.645
WS/40: 0.253
BPM: 10.4
-
Points/40: 23.7
Rebs/40: 13.6
Assist/40: 1.9
Blocks/40: 2.4
Steals/40: 0.6
3PM/40:  0.4

Ayton has the highest ADP for good reason. He is huge and passes all eye tests, the advanced stats love him, he’s on the younger side and his per-minute stats are strong. I personally would like to see more defensive stats or 3-point shooting but I cannot deny he has the highest ceiling here.

2. Luka Doncic
Age: 19
Height/Wing: 6'7"/-
Position: SF
ADP: 3.5
Player Comps (Low/High): Dario Saric/Larry Bird
-
PER: 26.7
TS%: 0.62
WS/40: 0.316
BPM: N/A
-
Points/40: 25
Rebs/40: 8.7
Assist/40: 7.3
Blocks/40: 0.4
Steals/40: 1.7
3PM/40: 2.4

Probably Ayton's biggest competition for going #1, Doncic has the calling-card of having the highest floor. His stats are great, advanced or otherwise, he has the second highest ADP and he is presumably playing against the stiffest competition. Luka is the most proven prospect here.

3. Trae Young
Age: 19.4
Height/Wing: 6'2"/6'4"
Position: PG
ADP: 5
Player Comps (Low/High): Shabazz Napier/Kemba Walker
-
PER: 28.3
TS%: 0.585
WS/40: 0.202
BPM: 11.7
-
Points/40: 31
Rebs/40: 4.4
Assist/40: 9.9
Blocks/40: 0.3
Steals/40: 1.9
3PM/40: 4.2

I ranked Trae Young above a few prospects with higher ADPs because he exemplifies a lot of NBA franchises are looking for from a lead guard these days. While his play has been criticized as of late, the advanced stats still support him and the layout of his per-minute counting stats is ideal for an NBA point guard.

4. Michael Porter Jr.
Age: 19.6
Height/Wing: 6'10"/7'0"
Position: SF
ADP: 4.2
Player Comps (Low/High): Anthony Bennett/Reggie Miller
-
PER: 19.6
TS%: 0.389
WS/40: 0.111
BPM: -3.5
-
Points/40: 22.4
Rebs/40: 16
Assist/40: 1.6
Blocks/40: 1.6
Steals/40: 0
3PM/40: 3.2

MPJ went from being one of the most sure things to a wildcard as of late. His injury and rusty return give him very questionable (and probably misleading) stats all around, though there are some bright spots. Still, his ADP remains fourth highest because he passes most eye tests and is mostly likely going to bounce back as he puts this injury in his past.

5. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Age: 18.4
Height/Wing: 6'10"/7'4"
Position: PF
ADP: 4
Player Comps (Low/High): Dragan Bender/Myles Turner
-
PER: 27.5
TS%: 0.654
WS/40: 0.244
BPM: 16.1
-
Points/40: 20.5
Rebs/40: 10.5
Assist/40: 2.1
Blocks/40: 5.7
Steals/40: 1.1
3PM/40: 2.1

Surprisingly, JJJ actually has the third highest ADP, is one of the youngest players available and might have the most favorable advanced stats out of everyone here. Though his buzz as #1 is relatively low, there is a very good chance that Jackson ends up being the best player here, which is why he rounds out the top tier. He has the upside to be an ideal 3&D center in the NBA.

-Tier 2-
Everyone in this tier has an argument to go in the top five with reasonable starter expectations.

6. Mikal Bridges
Age: 21.5
Height/Wing: 6'7"/7'1"
Position: SG
ADP: 8.8
Player Comps (Low/High): Wesley Johnson/Khris Middleton
-
PER: 26.9
TS%: 0.65
WS/40: 0.238
BPM: 12.8
-
Points/40: 21.9
Rebs/40: 6.8
Assist/40: 2.6
Blocks/40: 1.4
Steals/40: 2
3PM/40: 7.2

It might be a hot take to have Mikal Bridges this high but I can't keep myself away from this profile. Yes, Mikal is older but his combination of length and shooting ability make him the ideal 3&D wing in today's NBA. When I watch Mikal Bridges play, I see someone that every NBA team would like to have on their roster. I believe he is a guaranteed two-way contributor.

7. Marvin Bagley
Age: 18.9
Height/Wing: 6'11"/7'0"
Position: PF
ADP: 4.7
Player Comps (Low/High): Nerlens Noel/Clint Capela
-
PER: 31.5
TS%: 0.636
WS/40: 0.255
BPM: 11
-
Points/40: 25.6
Rebs/40: 13.8
Assist/40: 1.9
Blocks/40: 1.2
Steals/40: 1.1
3PM/40: 0.9

I have Bagley ranked lower than his ADP because, while all his stats look good, the layout of his counting stats suggest to me that he will need help being his best. It is clear that Bagley has elite rim-runner expectations but the lack of peripheral stats and self-sufficiency has me cooler on him than most. The market for non-shooting, non-creating post-players in the NBA is impacted right now sliding Bagley to seventh.

8. Mohamed Bamba
Age: 19.8
Height/Wing: 6'11"/7'9"
Position: C
ADP: 5.3
Player Comps (Low/High): Hasheem Thabeet/Rudy Gobert
-
PER: 28
TS%: 0.594
WS/40: 0.211
BPM: 11.3
-
Points/40: 17.1
Rebs/40: 13.8
Assist/40: 0.6
Blocks/40: 4.8
Steals/40: 1
3PM/40: 0.6

Much like Bagley, I am low on Bamba due to his lack of shooting/creation ability. There is no question Bamba should be a force on the defensive end and it is possible that his offensive ability can be above-average as well. The advanced stats love him but I'm slightly skeptical about how strongly his impact will translate to the open game of the NBA which is why he dips to eight.

9. Miles Bridges
Age: 19.9
Height/Wing: 6'7"/6'9"
Position: PF
ADP: 11.5
Player Comps (Low/High): Derrick Williams/Aaron Gordon
-
PER: 22.8
TS%: 0.582
WS/40: 0.212
BPM: 9.6
-
Points/40: 21.7
Rebs/40: 8.9
Assist/40: 3.5
Blocks/40: 1
Steals/40: 0.8
3PM/40: 2.6

Miles Bridges gets criticism for a lack of improvement statistically from year one to two and there is a chance he is just a big fish in a small pond right now. However, his versatile offensive game has a chance to be highly impactful in the NBA. His advanced stats are strong and the layout of his counting stats is diverse, all suggesting he could be something special. I'm not sure if he'll pan out but I think he is a great bet here at nine.

-Tier 3-
Everyone in this tier has an argument to go in the top ten with reasonable rotation expectations.

10. Jontay Porter
Age: 18.3
Height/Wing: 6'11"/-
Position: PF
ADP: 18
Player Comps (Low/High): Channing Frye/Myles Turner
-
PER: 22.4
TS%: 0.58
WS/40: 0.186
BPM: 11.4
-
Points/40: 16.6
Rebs/40: 11.2
Assist/40: 3.5
Blocks/40: 2.7
Steals/40: 1.4
3PM/40: 2.1

I may be favoring a certain style too much here but I really do think Jontay exemplifies what NBA GMs are looking for from their big men these days. While the younger Porter brother may not have impressive physical measurements, the diversity of his counting stats and strength of his advanced stats suggest he could be an ideal 4 or 5 in the NBA. There is a chance he can do everything Jaren Jackson Jr. is being projected to do.

11. Wendell Carter Jr.
Age: 18.8
Height/Wing: 6'10"/7'3"
Position: C
ADP: 9.5
Player Comps (Low/High): Willie Cauley-Stein/Juwan Howard
-
PER: 28.6
TS%: 0.631
WS/40: 0.244
BPM: 13.8
-
Points/40: 20.4
Rebs/40: 13.8
Assist/40: 3.1
Blocks/40: 3.1
Steals/40: 1.1
3PM/40: 0.9

Much like his Duke teammate, I have Wendell Carter listed lower than his ADP and advanced stats would suggest. There are certainly arguments to be made that Carter should go higher than this and there is a good chance he will end up being a better NBA player than a few players listed before him here, including Bagley. I like his assist and block rate, making him a rotation certainty but the lack of range in his play makes it hard to rank him much higher than this.

12. Collin Sexton
Age: 19.1
Height/Wing: 6'2"/6'7"
Position: PG
ADP: 11.5
Player Comps (Low/High): Jonny Flynn/De'Arron Fox 
-
PER: 23.5
TS%: 0.555
WS/40: 0.183
BPM: 6.8
-
Points/40: 25.2
Rebs/40: 4.9
Assist/40: 5
Blocks/40: 0.1
Steals/40: 1.3
3PM/40: 1.7

There are a lot of indications that Sexton will be, at least, a high end backup point guard in the NBA. His lack of passing and shooting stats are concerning but his advanced stats are all fairly strong, especially from someone his age. He could end up being too inefficient for his own good but he is the most proven name left if you are looking for someone to lead an offense.

13. Kevin Knox
Age: 18.5
Height/Wing: 6'9"/7'0"
Position: PF
ADP: 14
Player Comps (Low/High): Anthony Bennett/Tobias Harris
-
PER: 17.5
TS%: 0.564
WS/40: 0.140
BPM: 5.3
-
Points/40: 19.5
Rebs/40: 6.6
Assist/40: 1.7
Blocks/40: 0.3
Steals/40: 1.1
3PM/40: 2

Knox is young and wearing the right uniform to draw NBA prospect attention. He has good physical measurements and none of his stats are too bad. However, I find myself perpetually cooling on Knox due to the general lack of pop across all his numbers. There is upside for him to be the versatile, rangy wing player that NBA GMs are looking for but I fear that is wishful thinking here.

14. Landry Shamet
Age: 20.9
Height/Wing:6'4"/-
Position: PG
ADP: 19.5
Player Comps (Low/High): Greivis Vasquez/CJ McCollum
-

PER: 21.5
TS%: 0.653
WS/40: 0.2
BPM: 8.3
-
Points/40: 18.6
Rebs/40: 4.1
Assist/40: 6.6
Blocks/40: 0.2
Steals/40: 0.9
3PM/40: 7.4

Shamet isn't particularly high on any draft boards but maybe he should be. While he isn't a freshman, all his advanced stats are good and I love his 3-pointers made per minute coupled with his true shooting percentage. His defensive stats leave a lot to be desired but there is a chance Landry will make it in the NBA off of his shooting ability alone.

15. Robert Williams
Age: 20.3
Height/Wing:6'9"/7'4"
Position: PF
ADP: 13.7
Player Comps (Low/High): Jordan Bell/Stromile Swift
-

PER: 25
TS%: 0.603
WS/40: 0.182
BPM: 11.6
-
Points/40: 16
Rebs/40: 14
Assist/40: 2.2
Blocks/40: 3.9
Steals/40: 1.3
3PM/40: 0

Williams doesn't shoot from deep at all but he is a high impact player around both rims. His length, block rate and advanced stats suggest he can head a good defense while his shooting percentage shows that he can make his living within the short-range. While he doesn't possess the premium shooting ability everyone is looking for, Williams will certainly bring elite talent to whatever NBA he joins.

-Tier 4-
Everyone in this tier has an argument to go in the top twenty with reasonable rotation upside.

16. Jacob Evans
Age: 20.7
Height/Wing: 6'6"/-
Position: SF
ADP: 25.8
Player Comps (Low/High): Adam Morrison/Dion Waiters
-
PER: 21.9
TS%: 0.575
WS/40: 0.233
BPM: 11.8
-
Points/40: 17.6
Rebs/40: 5.9
Assist/40: 4.3
Blocks/40: 1.3
Steals/40: 1.7
3PM/40: 2.4

Evans has the look, measurements, and advanced stats to be a quality NBA wing. While his counting stats are generally muted and his older age creates less excuse for a muted role, the diversity of Jacob's counting stats give him increased opportunity to contribute/breakout in the NBA. While I am not sure of any of this, I do think Evans has the best probability of helping an NBA team out of any prospects left here.

17. Troy Brown
Age: 18.6
Height/Wing: 6'7"/6'10"
Position: SF
ADP: 16
Player Comps (Low/High): Shabazz Muhammad/Caris LeVert
-
PER: 17.1
TS%: 0.538
WS/40: 0.124
BPM: 4.8
-
Points/40: 14.8
Rebs/40: 8
Assist/40: 3.9
Blocks/40: 0.3
Steals/40: 2
3PM/40: 1.2

In the thick of potential NBA wings, Troy Brown sticks out because of his youth and physical measurements. However, his actual stats all leave me wanting a bit more. Because Brown is younger and because the role he plays is so desired, there is a lot of upside here but Brown simply hasn't proven very much yet.

18. Lonnie Walker
Age: 19.2
Height/Wing: 6'4"/6'10"
Position: SG
ADP: 16.8
Player Comps (Low/High): Terrence Ross/Wesley Matthews
-
PER: 16.8
TS%: 0.529
WS/40: 0.133
BPM: 5.3
-
Points/40: 16.8
Rebs/40: 3.8
Assist/40: 2.9
Blocks/40: 0.7
Steals/40: 1.4
3PM/40: 2.5

Much like Troy Brown, Lonnie Walker has relatively pedestrian stats but is still drawing a lot of attention due to his physical measurements and his ability to play wing positions. It is no secret that every NBA team could use another quality wing player and Walker has a lot of potential to be one of those players. Unfortunately, the advanced stats are currently suggesting that that all might be wishful thinking. Still, Walker is a nice high-upside pick here.

19. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Age: 19
Height/Wing: 6'6"/-
Position: PG
ADP: 20
Player Comps (Low/High): Frank Ntilikina/Ron Harper
-
PER: 19.3
TS%: 0.562
WS/40: 0.145
BPM: 7.9
-
Points/40: 16
Rebs/40: 4.7
Assist/40: 5.9
Blocks/40: 0.7
Steals/40: 1.9
3PM/40: 0.7

SGA is a big point guard that can contribute in a few different ways. His counting stats are pretty diverse and his advanced stats aren't too shabby. However, what gives him pause with Gilgeous-Alexander is his lack of shooting for a smaller player. I have been harping on a lot of bigger players for the same thing and that issue is only magnified for smaller players. For that reason, I am not too hot on him, though I can't deny he is one of the more proven talents left here.

20. De'Andre Hunter
Age: 20
Height/Wing: 6'7"/-
Position: SG
ADP: 35.3
Player Comps (Low/High): Taurean Prince/Manu Ginobili
-
PER: 23.4
TS%: 0.584
WS/40: 0.230
BPM: 9.6
-
Points/40: 18.4
Rebs/40: 7.1
Assist/40: 2.2
Blocks/40: 0.8
Steals/40: 1.2
3PM/40: 1.3

De'Andre Hunter was not ranked by most of the draft boards I consulted but I am a big fan of his advanced stats and diversity of counting stats. He has not proven too much yet for his age given the slightly muted nature of his counting stats but I do think he is a quality sleeper here because everything suggests that Hunter can be an integral part of winning basketball.

Thursday, March 1, 2018

All-Time Highlights (Part 3)

Hi everyone! Welcome to the All-Time Rankings!
I decided to take a look at all of our dynasty teams over the five completed years and rank them based off of how much they produced and how much they won. While I couldn't get in-depth with each and every team, I decided it would be fun to highlight a few and explain why they rank where they do. I hope this is a fun trip down memory lane as well as informative look at grander contexts of our league. Here are four teams from rank 15 to 7.

#15 – 2016 Por Favors (Nathaniel Coromelas)
Record: 9-7
Season Weekly Average: 900
Postseason Weekly Average: 1005
Final Standing: 3rd

PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kristaps Porzingis

-Lowlight: 2013-2116 second round series (seed #4 and #1) loss to Chris.
-Highlight: 2096-1826 first round series (ssed #4 and #5) win over Brett Lakey.
-Overview: A personal favorite, Nate's fourth season is the 15th best all time because it started off well and the heat turned up in the playoffs. The winning record and season average were good but what ranks this squad so high is the elite postseason production. This team was electric, ranking second in scoring during the playoffs, and ended up being Chris' biggest threat in that tournament. Based off all the evidence, its not outlandish to call this group elite.

#14 – 2015 MAMA Said Knock u out (Rich Mamaradlo)
Record: 11-5
Season Weekly Average: 873
Postseason Weekly Average: 973
Final Standing: 2nd

PG: Chris Paul
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Gordon Hayward
PF: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Tim Duncan
-Lowlight: 1899-2350 championship series (seed #4 and #3) loss to Michael.
-Highlight: 1981-1682 second round series (seed #4 and #1) upset victory over Freddy.
-Overview: Rich's only year of postseason noise ranks here for a lot of reasons. The regular season average isn't elite but it got the job done record-wise. Meanwhile, the second rendition of Rich's squad saw a major serge in postseason production that propelled them all the way to the finals. This makes Rich's second campaign extremely rare but the questionably elite production numbers make this the only finals team to rank outside the top 10 all-time.

#10 – 2013 Team Berber (Danny Berber)
Record: 12-5
Season Weekly Average: 955
Postseason Weekly Average: 997
Final Standing: 3rd

PG: Deron Williams
SG: James Harden
SF: Kobe Bryant
PF: Al Horford
C: LeMarcus Aldridge

-Lowlight: 1677-2210 second round series (seed #3 and #2) loss to Tyler.
-Highlight: 2079-1863 first round series (seed #3 and #6) victory over Nate.
-Overview: The highest ranking non-finals team of all-time, Danny Berber's first and only campaign sneaks into our top 10 because of the elite production this team put out all season long. While Mr. Berber's crew couldn't quite top a year when Freddy and Tyler were also doing special things, this roster and overall year deserves a shout out. This was a fantastic collection of names that produced exceptional numbers.

#7 – 2013 Kriskaman you (Freddy Cruz)
Record: 13-4
Season Weekly Average: 943
Postseason Weekly Average: 1057
Final Standing: 2nd

PG: Steph Curry
SG: Paul Pierce
SF: Paul Geroge
PF: Josh Smith
C: Tyson Chandler

-Lowlight: 2347-2348 championship series (seed #2 and #1) loss to Tyler.
-Highlight: 2260-1791 second round series (seed #2 and #5) victory over Chris.
-Overview: Freddy's first season ranks seventh all time, as one of the best non-champ teams, because this squad had truly elite production down the stretch and was literally one fantasy point away from being crowned champions. As excruciating as that finals loss was for Freddy, the season as a whole is definitely one to celebrate. With wins galore, many points to score, and a core assembled for that year and more, this team is impossible to ignore.

Monday, February 26, 2018

Reddit's Pre-March 2018 NBA Draft Board

 #12 - Kevin Knox
Average Pick: 11.62


#11 - Miles Bridges
Average Pick: 10.68

#10 - Wendell Carter
Average Pick: 10.48

#9 - Collin Sexton
Average Pick: 10.44


#8 - Mikal Bridges
Average Pick: 9.30


#7 - Trae Young
Average Pick: 6.96


#6 - Mohamed Bamba
Average Pick: 6.80


#5 - Jaren Jackson Jr.
Average Pick: 6.35

#4 - Marvin Bagley
Average Pick: 4.99

#3 - Michael Porter Jr.
Average Pick: 4.88

#2 - Luka Doncic
Average Pick: 2.11


#1 - DeAndre Ayton
Average Pick: 1.94

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

All-Time Highlights (Part 2)

Hi everyone! Welcome to the All-Time Rankings!
I decided to take a look at all of our dynasty teams over the five completed years and rank them based off of how much they produced and how much they won. While I couldn't get in-depth with each and every team, I decided it would be fun to highlight a few and explain why they rank where they do. I hope this is a fun trip down memory lane as well as an informative look at grander contexts of our league. Here are four teams from rank 23 to 18.
 
#23 – 2016 Balls to the Wall (Brett Lakey)
Record: 9-7
Season Weekly Average: 858
Postseason Weekly Average: 975
Final Standing: 5th

PG: John Wall
SG: Kyle Lowry
SF: Nicolas Batum
PF: Serge Ibaka
C: LeMarcus Aldridge

-Lowlight: 1826-2096 first round playoff series (seed #5 and #4) loss to Nate.
-Highlight: 1082-905 victory over Danny Leong in week seven.
-Overview: Brett's first rendition was sneaky good and ranks here despite some bland results. Nine wins and fifth place hardly feel like much to celebrate but the production numbers tell a different story. By all accounts, this was a very good team that was a tough match, especially later in the season. These averages, while not truly elite, are well above average and within striking distances of contention. Unfortunately for Brett, it simply wasn't quite enough to beat the very best that year. To me, this squad is a strong reminder of how competitive this league really is.

#22 – 2014 HardON 4 HardEN (Jonathan Montgomery)
Record: 8-8
Season Weekly Average: 883
Postseason Weekly Average: 900
Final Standing: 4th

PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Lance Stephenson
SF: DeMar DeRozan
PF: Chris Bosh
C: LeMarcus Aldridge

-Lowlight: 1643-2099 second round series (seed #8 and #4) loss to Michael.
-Highlight: 1875-1840 first round playoff series (seed #8 and #1) upset victory over Tyler.
-Overview: The start of the season was slow (1-4 after five weeks, in fact). While the record might not look like much, Monty's first installment ranks high due to his quality production throughout the season and the uptick for the playoffs. All this came together perfectly in an upset victory over top seeded Tyler, which is still the only time a #8 seed has advanced. A rare playoff win coupled with a strong output all year long makes this a deceptively above-average crew.

#20 – 2014 Shake and Blake (Sam Keller-Twigg)
Record: 10-6
Season Weekly Average: 920
Postseason Weekly Average: 889
Final Standing: 5th

PG: Jameer Nelson
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Kawhi Leonard
PF: Blake Griffin
C: Dirk Nowitzki

-Lowlight: 1683-2084 first round playoff series (seed #5 and #4) loss to Michael.
-Highlight: 1108-824 victory over Gus in week nine.
-Overview: An unexpected addition to the top 20, unlike Monty's squad in the same year, Sam KT's team had a better regular season than post-season. It is hard to say which team is ultimately more commendable but Sam's second campaign of three actually had a lot to like. The winning percentage and year-long numbers add up to a good team that just couldn't quite break out from the pack and, unfortunately, tapered off when it mattered most. Ultimately, this resume deserves some respect.

#18 – 2017 All-NBA 5th Team (Matt Wong)
Record: 10-6
Season Weekly Average: 923
Postseason Weekly Average: 876
Final Standing: 4th

PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Hassan Whiteside
C: Brook Lopez

-Lowlight: 1632-2231 second round series (seed #5 and #1) loss to Michael.
-Highlight: 2135-1848 first round series (seed #5 and #4) upset victory over Brett Lakey.
-Overview: Matt's third season tops this group because this team saw consistent success throughout the regular season and the post-season. However, it was also never able to do anything at an elite level. A winning record, a playoff win and quality production throughout the year makes Matt's group from last year self-evidently good. Yet, the lack of any outlier achievements leaves this crew feeling good-not-great and places them outside the top 15 all time.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

All-Time Highlights (Part 1)

Hi everyone! Welcome to the All-Time Rankings!
I decided to take a look at all of our dynasty teams over the five completed years and rank them based off of how much they produced and how much they won. While I couldn't get in-depth with each and every team, I decided it would be fun to highlight a few and explain why they rank where they do. I hope this is a fun trip down memory lane as well as an informative look at grander contexts of our league. Here are four teams from rank 60 to 30.

#60 – 2014 Basket Brawlers (Frank Keller-Twigg)
Record: 1-15
Season Weekly Average: 762
Postseason Weekly Average: 456
Final Standing: 12th

PG: Kemba Walker
SG: Vince Carter
SF: Ersan Ilysasova
PF: Kenneth Faried
C: Al Horford

-Lowlight: 824-1625 consolation series (seed #12 and #11) loss to Chris in the final weeks of the playoffs for last place and the sacko award.
-Highlight: 821-764 win over Gary in the fourth week to stave off a winless season.
-Overview: It is not only the worst win percentage ever that has this team ranked last all-time. Frank's second campaign also sticks out due to how rudderless this squad was in the post-season. While it has become common for the bottom teams to slim down towards the end of the year, this club took it to the extreme (literally finishing the season with only 14 players) and fell off in spectacular fashion. I hate to bag on my own flesh and blood but this was a half-team bore from an owner paying half-attention, let this ghost be a reminder for the rest of us.

#51 – 2016 TimAin't Duncan (Nick Coromelas)
Record: 5-11
Season Weekly Average: 768
Postseason Weekly Average: 669
Final Standing: 10th

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Rodney Hood
SF: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
PF: Greg Monroe
C: Nikola Vucevic

-Lowlight: 676-928 loss to Gus during week five to start the season 0-5.
-Highlight: 962-696 smashing of Nate during week ten in the annual Coromelas Bowl.
-Overview: Nick's first season in the league was a checkered one which lands him here in the rankings. While this group's record and production weren't too bad, they were still a far cry from a playoff caliber organization. There certainly are contextual reasons as to why this team struggled but at the end of the day, below-average numbers beget below-average placements. At least this team put up some fights here and there.

#31 – 2014 NY sKNICKers (Andrew Baron-Vartian)
Record: 9-7
Season Weekly Average: 907
Postseason Weekly Average: 833
Final Standing: 8th

PG: Brandon Jennings
SG: Evan Turner
SF: Chandler Parsons
PF: Carmelo Anthony
C: Joakim Noah

-Lowlight: 1752-2140 first round playoff series (seed #7 and #2) loss to Gus.
-Highlight: 996-864 win over Michael in week nine to start the season 8-1.
-Overview: Andrew's second campaign of three was his best and places here in the rankings. Justifiably in the middle of the all-time ranks, this team had very high highs and very low lows. Unfortunately for Mr. New York, his team took a step in the wrong direct down the end of the year and despite starting the season so strong, the team finished with medium results. The flashes of quality production were good but not enough to truly separate.

#30 – 2015 Make It Nashty (Danny Leong)
Record: 7-9
Season Weekly Average: 791
Postseason Weekly Average: 946
Final Standing: 3rd

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Eric Bledsoe
SF: DeMar DeRozan
PF: Dwight Howard
C: Brook Lopez

-Lowlight: 652-1174 loss to Michael in week fifteen, making for four losses in a row.
-Highlight: 1921-1814 first round playoff series (seed #7 and #2) upset victory over Chris.
-Overview: Topping the bottom half of the all-time list, Danny's first season is surprisingly his best completed so far mainly due to what this spunky squad was able to do in the post-season. With an increase of about 150 fantasy points per week over their regular season average, Danny's team turned the heat up enough to pull off one of the most surprising upsets in our league history. While this squad was unable to go any further in those playoffs, that upset still remains Danny's only playoff victory and is a testament to how strongly this group finished.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

2018 Post-Season/Off-Season Power Rankings

Intro
-Hello everyone, it's been awhile and it's time we did some rankings! I wanted to not only evaluate all our championship hopes but also address the futures of our franchises and the dynasty perspective of our league. So this is not only a postseason ranking, but also an offseason ranking. I evaluated all our teams based on the three resources in our game: production, youth, and cap flexibility.
-After collecting data on all our teams, I organized everyone into three general tiers with their own general objectives: tankers (teams encouraged to focus on youth and cap), grinders (teams encouraged to focus on value in its most optimal forms), and contenders (teams encouraged to focus on production). From there, I attempted to organize each tier in order of who has the most advantageous position to achieve their goals. Enjoy!

Tankers
Teams that are collecting value outside of production. The primary focus of these ranks is on flexibility and prospects.


#11 - TimAin't Duncan (Nick Coromelas)
2018 Record: 2-14
2018 Weekly Production: 673
Projected Finish: 12th
Roster Age: 27.3
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 4
Roster Salary: $359
Extended Salary: $54
Expiring Contracts: 1
Eligible Keepers: 6

-With another rough year in the books, Nick's focus will most definitely be on the future. Conveniently, the best asset on this team is probably Lonzo Ball and his future is still vast. Unfortunately, the rest of this roster is pretty old (the oldest of all lottery teams) and while there is certainly value that can be utilized here, much of this squad is better thought of as trade pieces rather than foundation.
-With sacko-level numbers and below-average roster cohesion, Nick's unit still needs a lot of work. And with mediocre tools to do so, I have doubts about that work getting done with much haste.

#10 - MAMA said Knock u out (Rich Mamaradlo)
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 Weekly Production: 714
Projected Finish: 9th
Roster Age: 26.4
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 4
Roster Salary: $329
Extended Salary: $53
Expiring Contracts: 3
Eligible Keepers: 5

-There is no doubt that Rich has a nice young core. Murray, Tatum and Brown all seem like guys that could get through RFA on sneaky values starting this offseason. However, it feels like there have been a few missed opportunities here. Chris Paul and Klay Thompson are probably not happy to spend another year of their primes in the lottery with Rich and they would probably serve this Murray/Tatum core much more as trade assets for the likes of first round picks and prospects.
-While this roster may be in better shape than Nick's, Rich's squad still needs some upgrades and probably have missed opportunities to get that done. A tough position, average assets and a questionable precedent lands this squad here.

#9 - Draymond Green Tornado Kick (Nathaniel Coromelas)
2018 Record: 6-10
2018 Weekly Production: 762
Projected Finish: 11th
Roster Age: 24.9
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 5
Roster Salary: $248
Extended Salary: $50
Expiring Contracts: 1
Eligible Keepers: 7

-What sets Nate's team apart from others in the lottery is the lower age and cost of his roster as well as his above-average amount of draft picks. This team's production was poor but at least a team built around Aaron Gordon and Kristaps Porzingis has some time. Schroder has been elite and guys like Murray and the rookies are interesting. Unloading Gasol got disappointing returns but I still believe in the move because it advanced the team's cause.
-In the end, I feel like Nate is in a better position to rebuild this offseason due to his higher quality assets.

#8 - Foxy Ladies (Brett Lakey)
2018 Record: 4-12
2018 Weekly Production: 839
Projected Finish: 10th
Roster Age: 25.7
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 8
Roster Salary: $351
Extended Salary: $0
Expiring Contracts: 0
Eligible Keepers: 7

-I like Brett's position out of all the lottery teams for a few reasons. Not only did this team produce the most (despite Hayward on the IR all season) but Brett currently has the most tools to get better. While his team is not quite as young as Nate Dogg's, Brett has zero extended contracts or expiring contracts to worry about this offseason. Maybe Collins and Fox have a ways to go before they are Murray/Tatum or Gordon/Zingis but Brett also has the most draft picks out of anyone on this list.
-Brett already has a developing young core, a big collection of draft picks and ultimate cap flexibility for what should be an awesome RFA/Auction Draft combo. This is definitely the tanking team I'd most like to be.


Grinders
Teams collecting bargain values in all forms. The primary focus of these ranks is on asset collections and flexibility.


#7 - All-NBA 5th Team (Matt Wong)
2018 Record: 7-9
2018 Weekly Production: 771
Projected Finish: 7th
Roster Age: 28.4
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 2
Roster Salary: $374
Extended Salary: $124
Expiring Contracts: 3
Eligible Keepers: 5

-Matt's team in a tough position. The oldest roster in the league is also the only non-contender with over $100 already committed to next year. Matt will also have less picks than most to work with over these next couple seasons. Add in the below-average production numbers on the year and we have a team that is probably too expensive for its own good.
-With the odds of an immediate championship unlikely, I would like to see a team in Matt's position be younger, cheaper, or more flexible. These concerns land his franchise here.

#6 - RIM JOBS (Alex Campos)
2018 Record: 11-5
2018 Weekly Production: 818
Projected Finish: 8th
Roster Age: 27.1
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 3
Roster Salary: $384
Extended Salary: $29
Expiring Contracts: 2
Eligible Keepers: 4

-While unfortunately timed injuries will probably the undoing of Alex's crew, there are a few similarities between his team and Matt's that give me pause. The roster age and overall salary is pretty high while the amount of exciting keepers feels low. Fortunately, Alex's extended contracts are lower than most so he still has a good amount of options this upcoming offseason.
-Overall, Alex took some calculated risks of pushing aggressively and it's probably not going to pay off. It was a respectable campaign and was done in a way that didn't mortgage the future, landing the team here.

#5 - Emperor Kuzma (Tyler Lopez)
2018 Record: 8-8
2018 Weekly Production: 868
Projected Finish: 5th
Roster Age: 25.3
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 2
Roster Salary: $404
Extended Salary: $54
Expiring Contracts: 3
Eligible Keepers: 5

-Tyler's squad is one of the most interesting teams in the league and would probably be a title contender if not for a slew of unfortunate injuries. This team ranks above other expensive one like Matt's and Alex's because it is young. Tyler will almost certainly have to choose between Ben Simmons and Karl Anthony-Towns this offseason if Simmons pulls a large enough bid in RFA but that is still a powerful decision to be making, albeit difficult. While some of the key contracts may have caveats, this is still one of the coolest collections of names we have.
-One of the youngest teams in the league, within striking distance of the title. While it may be difficult to keep this dream team together, it has been constructed in a way where the power is still in Tyler's hands, placing him here in the ranks.

#4 - Love Kaman My Bibby's (Danny Leong)
2018 Record: 12-4
2018 Weekly Production: 866
Projected Finish: 4th
Roster Age: 27.3
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 4
Roster Salary: $243
Extended Salary: $0
Expiring Contracts: 1
Eligible Keepers: 6

-There is a lot to like about Danny's group going into the postseason and offseason. He is one of the few owners who is playing for playoff wins while also being set to win in free agency. Danny might not be a true contender but his team is the cheapest one on this list, he has zero money committed to next year and only one expiring contract to worry about. All of this gives Danny a lot of room to improve his already emerging squad.
-This campaign, Danny has managed to construct a team that is productive, cheap and flexible. These qualities put him at the top of his tier.

Contenders
Teams collecting immediate production. The primary focus of these ranks is on immediate championship hopes.


#3 - Team Penetration (Michael Johnson)
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 Weekly Production: 914
Projected Finish: 3rd
Roster Age: 26.2
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 1
Roster Salary: $430
Extended Salary: $313
Expiring Contracts: 1
Eligible Keepers: 5

-It has been a roller coaster season for Micheal's organization. Trades have been made, free agents have been signed and injuries have struck. Shortly after Michael's daring trade for Lowry, news of Cousins' season-ending injury dealt a deadly blow to fantasy owners around the world. Now, Michael is a championship underdog with over $300 committed to next year and one draft pick for the next two years. Unless Michael can find a way to unload one of his extended contracts, he must drop one of them and eat half the cost in the auction; a series of events that would be troublesome for his cause and great for all owners with cap space.
-With questionable championship odds and a jeopardized future, Michael might be in his toughest spot since 2013.

#2 - Deng Girl (Freddy Cruz)
2018 Record: 9-7
2018 Weekly Production: 889
Projected Finish: 2nd
Roster Age: 27.5
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 3
Roster Salary: $374
Extended Salary: $151
Expiring Contracts: 2
Eligible Keepers: 6

-There are a few reasons I have Freddy ranked all the way up here. His team has been on a tear since his trades for DeRozan, McCollum and Gasol, the playoff bracket favors his journey to the finals, and he will mostly likely run the core of this squad back again next season. While his fellow contenders will be seeing offseasons of change, Freddy will be dealing with less difficult decisions. I believe Freddy has a genuine shot to be this year's champion and, if he plays his cards right, that will extend into next year as well.
-Freddy started the season with a strong team and made some aggressive plays without relinquishing much flexibility. Overall, it has been a great campaign for Freddy and there is still opportunity for it to get better.

#1 - Team Greek God (Chris Nelson)
2018 Record: 13-3
2018 Weekly Production: 1020
Projected Finish: 1st
Roster Age: 26.1
2018-2019 Draft Picks: 3
Roster Salary: $342
Extended Salary: $27
Expiring Contracts: 5
Eligible Keepers: 5

-Freddy and Michael are definitely in the mix but most of the sensible money will be on Chris this postseason. His team has produced in a class of their own and, even though he missed his trade deadline opportunities, it is likely that Chris will remain the lead dog throughout the playoffs. Beyond that, Chris' offseason will be an interesting one as four of his top six players expire into free agency (part of why the upcoming auction will be so exciting). He will certainly be in play to sign some names again but it is unlikely that he'll be able to reconstruct anything like what he's had these last few years.
-This campaign has been everything Chris could ask for and he now sits in pole position for the title. Next season may be clouded in mystery but that's a small price to pay for spot Chris is in.