2020 NBA's 24 & Under Statistical Rankings

 

Intro

(Skip to RANKINGS if you want to see my list without explanation. 2018's ranks if you're interested)

I attempted to take a precise look at the statistical evidence we have for all NBA players under the age of 25 from the last year and provide a rankings based off of numbers alone. My hope is to provide a different yet rich look at everything these professionals have accomplished this year. The list may counter both consensus thought & my own opinions but also brings a valid perspective.

This list is meant to comparatively quantify the volume and efficiency of each player’s most recent year of basketball in an objective manner.

Enjoy. 

Methods

First, I collected a group of all NBA players who both were the age of 24 & under this year and played at least 200 minutes this NBA season (for both the 2018-19 season and the 2008-2009 season). I then gathered these 5 stats for each player:

-Age [30%]

-VORP [10%]

-BPM [10%]

-WS/48 [10%]

-Total Points [40%]
These stats were selected based on their reliability and association with winning basketball. Total points is meant to measure a players volume of impact; VORP, BPM and Win Shares per 48 minutes are meant to measure a players efficiency; and a player's age regulates expectations.

All players’ stats were converted into z-scores (the amount of standard deviations away from the mean their datum is) based off the set group of eligible NBA players. This serves as a universal translation that helps compare all stats evenly. Those z-scores were then given unique weightings [listed above] to reflect the importance of their stat in the context of the NBA & combined to give us our magic formula.

Notes

-All data taken from basketball-reference.com
-All players stats taken from 2019-2020 season
-2020 based off a set group of 178


Let's go...

RANKINGS

The overall list can be viewed here, but the highlights follow:

1. Luka Doncic
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: 4.73 (5.4)
2020 BPM Score: 3.50 (8.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 2.05 (0.207)
2020 Total Points Score: 3.13 (1759)
Final Score: 2.72

-On a tier of his own, Luka really have a particularly special season last year. His advanced stats and total points were all outliers among his peers. In fact, his least significant statistic here is his age which is surprising since he is only one year older than the minimum age. That just goes to show how strong his other stats are. I know this is old news but it cannot be overstated just how much of an outlier Doncic is.

2. Trae Young
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.56 (3.1)
2020 BPM Score: 1.87 (3.9) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.85 (0.133)
2020 Total Points Score: 3.18 (1778)
Final Score: 2.04

-The young man traded for Doncic on draft night comes in right behind him in my ranking this year. While it should be noted that there is a significant drop between Luka's score and Trae's, it is nice to see Trae come in second. Trae's advanced stats are not nearly as good as Luka's and he is a year older too but what he put together in 2020 is not something to scoff at. Young's advanced stats are still very good (especially for his age) and he is one of the highest scorers on this list. While he may not be on the same level of as the legendary Luka, Trae is still doing something very special.

3. Jayson Tatum
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.84 (3.4)
2020 BPM Score: 1.91 (4.0) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.06 (0.146)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.60 (1547)
Final Score: 1.86

-The apple of Boston's eye comes in third here because he is getting good advanced stats while still being rather young. He may not be scoring as much as the two guys above him but he is still scoring quite a lot. Overall, Tatum is all-around above average in every way here. Given his trajectory so far, I expect him to hover around the top 5-10 of this list for the next three seasons. 

4. Devin Booker
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.09 (2.6)
2020 BPM Score: 1.26 (2.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.01 (0.143)
2020 Total Points Score: 3.40 (1863)
Final Score: 1.63

-I am relatively surprised to see Booker this high but the numbers don't lie. His advanced stats are fairly good if not outstanding and he is the highest scorer on this list. It is a little troubling that his is on the older side here because that indicates that his advanced stats might not grow much further beyond where they already are. It is clear that Booker can put the ball in the basket and it's nice to see the advanced stats liking him well enough but I am skeptical that he will ever become a truly significant contributor to winning basketball.

5. Nikola Jokic
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 4.82 (5.5)
2020 BPM Score: 3.14 (7.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.96 (0.202)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.37 (1456)
Final Score: 1.57

-It is difficult for 24 year olds to rank highly in this list because they are the oldest age observed. Despite that, Jokic comes in at the fifth spot because his points are pretty high and the advanced stats love him. Obviously many GMs would select Nikola over the likes of Devin Booker and Trae Young because he is already a proven MVP candidate for a Western Conference Finals team. Booker and Young scored more and are younger but it is very likely that they never receive the advanced stat love that Jokic has. Overall, this is a strong final standing for Jokic's last year on this list.

6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.71 (2.2)
2020 BPM Score: 1.08 (1.7) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.65 (0.121)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.05 (1331)
Final Score: 1.40

-SGA had a breakout year as OKC's cornerstone prospect this year. He scored a good amount of points and garnered some decent advanced stat love while still being young. Because he measures well in all of my categories here, I sense that Shai might be able to take another step forward next year and maybe rank even higher on this list next time around.

7. Brandon Ingram
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.71 (2.2)
2020 BPM Score: 1.22 (2.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.56 (0.115)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.42 (1477)
Final Score: 1.35

-Brandon Ingram was the MIP winner this year and with good reason. He broke out as a high volume scorer and, according to the advanced stats, he was able to clock in good efficiency while doing so. Though it may seem like he's been around awhile now, Ingram is still fairly young so there is still plenty of room for more growth. Depending on how well he can mesh with Zion Williamson, BI could hover around the top 10 of this list for the next couple years.

8. Donovan Mitchell
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.80 (2.3)
2020 BPM Score: 1.15 (1.9) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.48 (0.110)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.87 (1655)
Final Score: 1.33

-It might surprise some to see Mitchell ranked only 8th here since he is essentially the face of a highly competitive team. However, his measurements here just aren't as high as you might think. For example, while it might not shock anyone to find out that Devin Booker outscored Donovan this year, I was very surprised to see that Booker outpaced Mitchell in every advanced stat here. Throw in the fact that Mitchell is on the older side of this list and he wasn't quite able to crack the top 5.

9. Ja Morant
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.76 (1.2)
2020 BPM Score: 0.57 (0.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.12 (0.088)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.71 (1193)
Final Score: 1.26

-The advanced stats were somewhat lukewarm on the reigning ROTY, but they were still generally positive. Meanwhile, Morant was able to score a fairly high volume at very young age which helps boost him into the top 10. It is very common for the advanced stats to dislike high-volume, young players (unless you're Doncic) so for Morant to remain slightly above average in each efficiency category actually bodes very well for his future. 

10. Bam Adebayo
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.75 (3.3)
2020 BPM Score: 1.69 (3.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.41 (0.168)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.59 (1146)
Final Score: 1.26

-In his first all-star season, Bam Adebayo rounds out our top 10 because he earned strong advanced stats while scoring a good amount and still being pretty young. It seems like Bam will be more of an efficiency player than a volume player but his volume isn't necessarily small either. Overall, Adebayo is a well-rounded player who clearly can contribute to winning basketball.

11. Jaren Jackson Jr.
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.58 (1.0)
2020 BPM Score: 0.61 (0.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.36 (0.103)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.20 (990)
Final Score: 1.07

-At number 11, JJJ clocks in slightly above average advanced stats with a good amount of points at a very young age. Many thought Jackson would be one of the best prospects of his stellar draft class and it looks like he living up to those expectations. Jaren might not be a bigtime volume scorer yet but his efficiency is promising and he still have plenty of time to develop. Judging from these numbers, there is a good chance JJJ has a breakout season next year.

12. Domantas Sabonis
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.37 (2.9)
2020 BPM Score: 1.62 (3.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.41 (0.168)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.59 (1147)
Final Score: 1.01

-Domantas Sabonis submitted a very strong season this year. He scored a fairly high volume and earned strong advanced stats on his way to his first all-star season. Comparing him to Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell (two players of similar age), Sabonis actually received better advanced stats. The only thing keeping him out of the top 10 is that he didn't score quite as much as those two did. 

13. Zach LaVine
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.90 (2.4)
2020 BPM Score: 1.33 (2.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.17 (0.091)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.56 (1530)
Final Score: 1.00

-I'm not a fan of Zach LaVine but the numbers here do not lie. While LaVine is on the older side here, he can clearly score in bunches and was able to do so with fairly strong advanced stats this year. Like with Booker, I am skeptical that LaVine can actually be a focal point for a winning team (especially since his stats are less impressive than Bookers while being a year older) but I cannot deny that LaVine has proven that he can bring good volume while remaining relatively efficient.

14. Collin Sexton
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.27 (0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.19 (-1.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.38 (0.057)
2020 Total Points Score: 2.10 (1349)
Final Score: 0.99

-Collin Sexton is the type of player that exposes the flaw in this system. Sexton is young and scored a large amount of points (on a very bad team) but the advanced stats all suggest below-average efficiency. This could mean that Sexton will maintain his volume and develop efficiency as he ages or it could mean that he is an inefficient scorer who will lose his large offensive role as he ages. I am personally far from sold on Sexton but it is notable that the advanced stats don't outright hate him since his measurements are only slightly below average. 

15. Jarrett Allen
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.52 (2.0)
2020 BPM Score: 1.30 (2.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 2.13 (0.212)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.65 (775)
Final Score: 0.99

-Jarrett Allen has never been a big volume scorer but he did score an above average amount this year. Meanwhile, the advanced stats actually seem to like him a lot. Throw in the fact that he is still young and it is no wonder that he was able to crack the top 20 once again despite being far from a household name. At the same age as Collin Sexton, Allen represents an inverse type of player here: lower volume and high efficiency. In the end, I would much rather bet on a player like Allen to continue to grow and maintain a productive NBA career.

16. Zion Williamson
2020 Age Score: 2.12 (19y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.29 (0.7)
2020 BPM Score: 1.22 (2.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.98 (0.141)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.06 (540)
Final Score: 0.91

-Finally we get to talk about Zion. Before you write off this system, let me explain why a guy like Williamson is ranked this low: injury. This formula is greatly influenced by injury because the heaviest weighed stat is total points. Considering how much time Zion missed, it is actually amazing that he was able to rank this high. Despite playing in only 24 games and scoring about a third of the points that LaVine did, Williamson cracks the top 20 because he remained average in total volume and clocked fairly good efficiency while being the youngest age possible. Had Williamson maintained his scoring average for a full 63 games this year, he would've ranked 4th on this list.

17. De'Aaron Fox
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.14 (1.6)
2020 BPM Score: 1.11 (1.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.61 (0.118)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.41 (1077)
Final Score: 0.89

-Fox has emerged as Sacremento's main cornerstone prospect because he is above average in both volume and efficiency while still being fairly young. While none of his measurements are particularly spectacular here, all are good. There is still time for Fox to take more steps forward so we'll if he can ever crack the top 10 here but I am confident he will never drop too far below the top 20 while he is eligible for this list.

18. Jamal Murray
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.05 (1.5)
2020 BPM Score: 0.90 (1.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.43 (0.107)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.45 (1091)
Final Score: 0.85

-Jamal Murray had a breakout playoffs this year but this list is based off of regular season stats. Murray is still pretty young and he scored an above average amount but his advanced stats were nothing to get too excited about. Obviously, there is a good chance his killer playoff run will carry over into next season and perhaps catapult him into the top 10 range, but if we are judging just his regular season, there is plenty of reason to think he deserves closer to a top 20 finish here.

19. John Collins
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.24 (1.7)
2020 BPM Score: 1.59 (3.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.51 (0.174)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.93 (885)
Final Score: 0.84

-Collins sneaks into the top 20 mainly because of his fairly strong advanced stats. The Baptist is still on the younger side and scored a decent amount but his strength this year was definitely his efficiency. If Collins back take a step forward in volume next year while maintaining his advanced stats, he should be able to rank even higher. Overall, these are very promising measurements for someone primed to spend his career next to Trae Young.

20. Mitchell Robinson
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.33 (1.8)
2020 BPM Score: 1.51 (2.9) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 2.42 (0.230)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.19 (590)
Final Score: 0.84

-Much like Collins, Mitchell Robinson had a year of minor volume but very good efficiency. In fact, Robinson has the best Win Shares per 48 minutes out of anyone listed so far. That's pretty remarkable given Mitchell is still quite young. Even if Robinson never takes a big step forward with volume (though it is reason to think he shall), his advanced stats for his age suggest that he will have a role for himself in the NBA for years to come.

21. Karl Anthony-Towns
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.37 (2.9)
2020 BPM Score: 3.28 (7.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 2.00 (0.204)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.03 (926)
Final Score: 0.81

-Like with Zion Williamson, KAT was brought down by injuries this year. He played about half the games and still submitted a well above average total of points. The advanced stats love him so really his it's just that he is a senior for this list and his point total is about half of what is should be. Had Towns played a full season, he probably would've landed in the 4th spot of this list.

22. Ben Simmons
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 2.27 (2.8)
2020 BPM Score: 1.77 (3.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.37 (0.165)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.06 (937)
Final Score: 0.80

-Another big name ranked surprisingly low, Ben Simmons is outside the top 20 because he is older than most here and his point total isn't particularly impressive. Simmons earned some very good advanced stats but nothing great enough to offset his muted volume and senior status. All of this is to say that Ben Simmons more or less plateaued this season (and frankly, hasn't improved much at all in these measures since his rookie year). It feels weird to say this about a 23 year old but it is possible that Simmons may never develop much beyond where he already is. And for that reason, he is slipping in these rankings.

23. Jaxson Hayes
2020 Age Score: 2.12 (19y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.10 (0.5)
2020 BPM Score: 0.36 (-0.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.46 (0.171)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.11 (472)
Final Score: 0.79

-I definitely did not expect to see Hayes rank this high on this list but his advanced stats are actually pretty decent, especially for a 19 year old. Meanwhile, Jaxson produced a pretty low volume on the year but not too low, just slightly below average. Therefore, Hayes is the youngest a player can be, logging fair volume and doing so with mildly good efficiency which all adds up to a promising rookie campaign. 

24. Coby White
2020 Age Score: 2.12 (19y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.74 (-0.4)
2020 BPM Score: -0.55 (-2.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.88 (0.026)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.87 (859)
Final Score: 0.77

-Here we have another player boosted by his extreme youth. While Coby White's measures are not particularly impressive, they are not a disaster either. And when we are looking at 19 year olds playing in the NBA, that can actually say a lot. White does not have the advanced stat forgiveness that Jaxson Hayes possesses but he did log a more impressive volume. Since Coby is so young and was able to clock only marginally below average efficiency while producing decent volume, his rookie season lands him here.

25. Jaylen Brown
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.95 (1.4)
2020 BPM Score: 0.75 (0.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.69 (0.123)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.62 (1159)
Final Score: 0.72

-Jaylen Brown is a beneficiary of the Boston hype machine so some might be surprised to see him ranked below the links of Coby White and Jaxson Hayes here. However, his measures (while good) simply do not sing like some might expect. Jaylen is on the older side now and, at this point, his advanced stats aren't stellar enough to overcome that and launch him into the top 20. The same can be said about Brown's volume which is certainly above average but not so significant to push him any higher than this. In the end, Brown has good measures but nothing that stands out as particularly great. And at the age of 23, we need to see something great to break into the top 20.

26. Ivica Zubac
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.14 (1.6)
2020 BPM Score: 1.48 (2.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 2.60 (0.241)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.20 (596)
Final Score: 0.64

-Zubac is the first prospect from LA to make this list because he is still young and his advanced stats are very strong. Zubac's volume is basically average but his efficiency measures are strong enough to overcome that and push him into the top 30 here. It will be interesting to see if Ivica can continue to carve out a bigger role for himself, improve his volume, and maintain/improve his efficiency. If he can do that, we might see him rank even higher next year.

27. Kristaps Porzingis
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.33 (1.8)
2020 BPM Score: 1.15 (1.9) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.93 (0.138)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.63 (1164)
Final Score: 0.63

-It is another surprise to see The Unicorn all the way down here but Kristaps has had a difficult few years. While Porzingis was able to play in most of the games this year (and garner a strong volume of points), his advanced stats were not as glowing as we might have expected from him a few years ago. It is possible he spent most of this season getting back into the NBA groove and it is easy to assign his advanced stat stagnation to his plague of injuries over the last few years. But the bottomline is that his efficiency measures are scarcely better than Jaylen Brown's and since Kristaps is the oldest age possible for this list, he ranks here.

28. Troy Brown Jr.
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.08 (0.3)
2020 BPM Score: -0.01 (-1.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.25 (0.065)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.50 (716)
Final Score: 0.60

-Troy Brown Jr. is an unexpected member of the top 30 but his numbers make it understandable. At 20 years of age, Brown was able to submit a fair amount of volume and his advanced stats were only slightly below average. As I said with Coby White, it is pretty impressive with a very young player is able to avoid ugly efficiency numbers, especially when there is decent volume involved.

29. Tyler Herro
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.27 (0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.11 (-1.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.49 (0.050)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.57 (743)
Final Score: 0.58

-Tyler Herro had a breakout 2020 playoffs but this list is based off of the regular season. And Herro's stats here are very similar to Troy Brown Jr.'s: decent volume and only slightly below average efficiency at the age of 20. Herro logged in slightly more volume that Troy Brown but also slightly worse advanced stats which lands him right behind Brown in these rankings. Obviously I think Herro is primed for a jump of this list next year given his performance in the playoffs but his regular season stats put him right inside the top 30.

30. Deandre Ayton
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.29 (0.7)
2020 BPM Score: 0.61 (0.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.65 (0.121)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.44 (690)
Final Score: 0.57

-The former #1 overall pick rounds out our top 30 with all-around good but not great measures. None of his stats here are below average but none are significantly good either. Clearly, Ayton's volume took a big hit because he played about half the season (largely due to a suspension) so there is a good chance that will change next year, promising potential for a higher finish on this list. Had he played a full 66 games, Ayton would've landed around 11th. Still, I am skeptical Deandre will ever crack the top 10 of this list because his efficiency isn't quite high enough for a 21 year old with those kinds of aspirations.

31. OG Anunoby
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.24 (1.7)
2020 BPM Score: 0.90 (1.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.87 (0.134)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.55 (733)
Final Score: 0.55

-OG has been a darling among NBA stat junkies for some time now because the advanced stats generally like him. And at the age of 22, it is fairly impressive that he can produce this kind of efficiency. The only thing holding him back from a higher rank is is relatively muted volume. Maybe Anunoby never become the type of player to carry an offense but he should continue to hover around these ranks due to his verified ability to contribute to winning basketball.

32. D'Angelo Russell
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.95 (1.4)
2020 BPM Score: 1.15 (1.9) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.33 (0.060)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.32 (1039)
Final Score: 0.54

-D'Angelo is on the older side of this list now so we are beginning to see what we can expect from him going forward. As the glow of extreme youth wears off, we are left with a player that can produce a good volume but garners mixed reviews from the advanced stats. Ultimately, it is still unclear how much Dlo can help a team with championship aspirations. His advanced stats aren't bad (in fact, a couple are even good) and his volume is clearly above average at this point, but none of it stands out enough to push his age 23 season into top 20 consideration.

33. RJ Barrett
2020 Age Score: 2.12 (19y)

2020 VORP Score: -1.31 (-1.0)
2020 BPM Score: -1.09 (-4.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -1.54 (-0.015)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.72 (803)
Final Score: 0.53

-Knick fans may not be pleased to see RJ this far down the list but the numbers don't lie. While Barrett is still blessed with the excitement of being a teenager, his volume was only pretty good and his advanced stats were downright bad. Comparing him to a fellow rookie teen in Coby White, it might surprise people to see that White has Barrett beat in every measure of volume or efficiency here. We certainly heard a lot more about Barrett since he was the higher pick and played in New York but the stats he produced were simply not as promising as Coby's. Obviously there is still time for Barrett to grow and this rank reflects the fact that there is still space for hope with RJ, but he will need to up his game if he wants to truly be considered one of the best young prospects of the NBA.

34. Markelle Fultz
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.27 (-0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.19 (-1.8) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.25 (0.065)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.89 (870)
Final Score: 0.52

-Don't call it a comeback! While this rank may seem modest, this is quite a step up from where Fultz was a year or two ago. Surprisingly, Markelle is on the younger side of this list, getting decent volume and clocking fairly forgivable efficiency. That might be fair praise for a former #1 pick but it's also a lot better than being written off as a bust. It seems likely that Markelle's fate lies somewhere in between, where he can maybe be a decent rotation player/low-end starter for a good amount of years.

35. Michael Porter Jr.
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.39 (0.8)
2020 BPM Score: 1.01 (1.5) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.19 (0.154)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.01 (512)
Final Score: 0.49

-It was a nice postponed rookie season for Michael Porter Jr., especially since he stepped up in the playoffs. It is not easy for a rookie to carve out much volume on a contending team like the Nuggets but MPJ was able to garner an average amount despite his youth. On top of that, the advanced stats generally like Porter so there is a good chance that he can continue to defy the odds and ascend in volume on a title contender. There was a lot to be reserved about at the beginning of Michael Porter Jr.'s NBA career but it is clear that his stock is trending up. 

36. Brandon Clarke
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.24 (1.7)
2020 BPM Score: 1.59 (3.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.66 (0.183)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.46 (700)
Final Score: 0.47

-Brandon Clarke was one of the steals of the most recent draft because he was able to produce a positive volume with very good advanced stats. Clarke may already be on the older side of this list, which does take a lot of shine off of his otherwise exciting measures, but it is clear that he can contribute to winning NBA basketball. Maybe Clarke will never be the focal point of an offense but he is certainly a rotation player at the very least.

37. Thomas Bryant
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.76 (1.2)
2020 BPM Score: 1.26 (2.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.35 (0.164)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.23 (609)
Final Score: 0.47

-As a fantasy junkie, I became a big fan of Bryant's in recent years. Despite missing a chunk of time this season, Thomas Bryant was able to produce a fair volume and he did so with above average advanced stats. And to top it all off, Bryant is still on the younger side of this list. In fact, had Bryant played a full season, he would've ranked just above Jaylen Brown on this list. All of this is to say that if Washington ever decides to fully embrace the rebuild, Bryant could and should be a piece they fully invest in.

38. Devonte' Graham
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.95 (1.4)
2020 BPM Score: 0.64 (0.5) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.12 (0.073)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.59 (1145)
Final Score: 0.42

-Devonte' had a breakout sophomore season this year as he more than doubled his minutes per game from last year and became a fan favorite in Charlotte. Graham produced above average volume and decent advanced stats but he is also a senior on this list, which limits his ranking. This year, Devonte' proved that he can be a rotation player in the NBA but because of his lack of youth, I am skeptical about how much more growth is in him.

39. Wendell Carter Jr.
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.46 (-0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.40 (-2.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.75 (0.127)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.08 (484)
Final Score: 0.39

-I was pretty excited about WCJ coming into his rookie season and despite the injuries that have held him back so far, I remain optimistic that he can still become an above average NBA starter. Wendell's advanced stats are more mediocre than I would've hoped and his volume was definitely muted by an injured season but he is still very young with plenty of room to grow (especially if he can prove that these injuries were unlucky outliers). Maybe I am biased but I still believe that Carter can break into the top 20 of this list next year. 

40. Miles Bridges
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.65 (-0.3)
2020 BPM Score: -0.44 (-2.5) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.67 (0.039)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.82 (843)
Final Score: 0.39

-Miles Bridges was able to take a step forward in volume in his sophomore season but he also took a step backwards in his efficiency. While Bridges' volume is fairly above average but it is almost neutralized by his fairly below average advanced stats. And even though Miles is on the younger side, I can't help feeling somewhat skeptical about where his career is projecting so far. Obviously he still has time to develop and his numbers are basically the same as those of Markelle Fultz (who I faintly praised) but I am beginning to wonder if Bridges' potential as a strong NBA starter is already slipping away. 

41. Lonzo Ball
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.86 (1.3)
2020 BPM Score: 0.68 (0.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.36 (0.058)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.58 (745)
Final Score: 0.38

-It has been a rollercoaster of a career for Lonzo Ball. Depending on which statistics you subscribe to, his third season could be viewed as a progression, digression or stagnation. All of Lonzo's measures here hover around average with a slight tendency towards above average. In the end, Ball has had a somewhat checkered career so far but he should continue to hang around this top 30-40 range and maintain his standing as a fine NBA starter.

42. Christian Wood
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 1.24 (1.7)
2020 BPM Score: 1.59 (3.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 1.66 (0.183)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.74 (810)
Final Score: 0.38

-Another darling of the NBA junkie community, Christian Wood finally started breaking into some decent volume this year with Detroit transitioning away from Drummond. Meanwhile, Wood has shown flashes of advanced stat love before but this season he also took a step forward there, producing all-around good-to-great efficiency. The only thing holding Christian back in these rankings is his senior status, which reduces the probability of him making another significant leap like this. Still, it is clear that Wood has established himself as a solid NBA starter who can contribute to any team.

43. P.J. Washington
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.18 (0.2)
2020 BPM Score: -0.11 (-1.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.43 (0.054)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.49 (710)
Final Score: 0.36

-PJ Washington was another good value pick of the 2019 draft since he was able to outrank a few rookies taken ahead of him here. Washington is fairly young, produced decent volume and logged only slightly below average efficiency. All things considered, that is pretty promising overall. For example, PJ's advanced stats are universally better than those of his teammate, Miles Bridges, while only sacrificing a bit of volume in comparison. Therefore, I am more optimistic that Washington can become a solid rotation player going forward.

47. Andrew Wiggins
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.39 (0.8)
2020 BPM Score: 0.36 (-0.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.49 (0.050)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.66 (1175)
Final Score: 0.32

-At this point, most people seem to agree that Andrew Wiggins is basically a bust of a #1 pick. It is now his final season of eligibility for this list and his numbers are rather mediocre. Yes, he scored an above average volume but his advanced stats are just not particularly good. And at the age of 24, there isn't much promise of significant growth left. Wiggins should be able to hang around the league as a fair rotation gunner but any upside here is essentially gone.

50. Lauri Markkanen
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.10 (0.5)
2020 BPM Score: 0.25 (-0.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.06 (0.084)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.56 (737)
Final Score: 0.30

-I was very excited about Lauri Markkanen after his rookie year but his advanced stats have been stagnant ever since. Meanwhile, Lauri has been plagued by injury shortened seasons which mute his overall volume. Combined, these factors have plummeted Markkanen's stock here since both his volume and efficiency have disappointed the growth expectations some of us had for him 2 years ago. Lauri is still on the younger side of this list and can always boost his volume next year by remaining healthy for the whole season, so there is plenty of potential for him to jump back up this list. But until he progresses in some measurable way, Markkanen will continue to slide down this list.

53. Kelly Oubre Jr.
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.29 (0.7)
2020 BPM Score: 0.28 (-0.5) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.20 (0.093)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.34 (1046)
Final Score: 0.25

-Kelly Oubre Jr. has established himself as a starter but I am skeptical about how central he can be to a winning team. Much like with Andrew Wiggins, Oubre is a senior on this list that scored an above average volume but produced average efficiency. The advanced stats are simply indifferent towards Oubre and that doesn't bode well for someone being compared to guys younger than him. It is nice that Oubre can gun with fair efficiency but it is unlikely that he will become much more than that. Ultimately, Kelly Oubre Jr. should be a fine rotation scorer but that's about it.

55. Myles Turner
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.58 (1.0)
2020 BPM Score: 0.50 (0.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.49 (0.111)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.59 (749)
Final Score: 0.23

-It has been an up and down career for Myles Turner. Both his advanced stats and his volume have fluctuated from year to year. In 2017, it looked like he might be a breakout stud in the making. In 2018, he regressed. In 2019, he bounced back. And this year he regressed again. After 5 years in the league, it's hard to gauge where his projections should be but excitement around him from 2017 is pretty much gone. Looking at Turner's 2020 numbers, we have a player on the older side of this list who is slightly above average in both volume and efficiency. That's solid for a rotation contributor on a winning team but nothing that stands out as a cornerstone.

59. Mo Bamba
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.10 (0.5)
2020 BPM Score: 0.61 (0.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.88 (0.135)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.46 (332)
Final Score: 0.21

-Bamba is fairly young but not extremely and his volume has been below average for his whole career. However, his saving grace is that the advanced stats kind of like him. It's nothing particularly exciting but they are good enough to suggest that Mo still has a chance of developing into a solid contributor. Maybe this isn't the most encouraging news for Bamba fans but it's nice to see life in these numbers when some people are already writing Mo off as a bust.

60. Robert Williams
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.29 (0.7)
2020 BPM Score: 2.31 (5.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 2.79 (0.253)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.92 (150)
Final Score: 0.21

-Robert Williams is a more extreme version of Bamba. Williams produced a well below average volume but he garnered some serious advanced stat love. Robert is basically average in terms of age here so it really could go either way. It's hard to tell if his efficiency would be nearly as high if he was asked to assume a larger volume but this is definitely something I curious to see. It will be tough for Williams to carve out a larger role on such a good team but if he continues to produce such noticeable advanced stats, he will be increasingly difficult to sideline.

62. Rui Hachimura
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.74 (-0.4)
2020 BPM Score: -0.69 (-3.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.33 (0.060)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.34 (649)
Final Score: 0.19

-There was a decent amount of excitement surrounding Rui Hachimura going into his rookie season, especially since he had an early opportunity to start for the struggling Wizards. However, Rui's campaign was cut short by injuries which stifled his overall volume. Unfortunately, that was his bread and butter since the advanced stats were not fond of Rui. Hachimura is still younger than most here so the efficiency may come and the volume is likely to increase. But it ended up being a pretty mediocre rookie year for Rui from a statistical perspective.

63. Jonathan Isaac
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.67 (1.1)
2020 BPM Score: 1.30 (2.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.64 (0.120)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.28 (404)
Final Score: 0.18

-This is a sad topic. Jonathan Isaac was taking some serious steps forward this year before being stopped by a severe injury. Isaac is young, produced strong advanced numbers and was on pace to supply solid volume as well. If Isaac had kept his pace for a full season, he would've ranked somewhere around 30th on this list. Unfortunately, that is not what happened and he is likely to miss next season as well. There is still time for JI to come back from this misfortune but this is still a bummer of a situation. Isaac was really establishing himself as a true contributor to winning basketball and I will be cheering for his return 100%. 

65. Cam Reddish
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -1.22 (-0.9)
2020 BPM Score: -1.05 (-4.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -1.48 (-0.011)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.24 (610)
Final Score: 0.16

-Cam Reddish (and Jarrett Culver, who ranks just below him) is riding his youth and his slightly above average volume here because his advanced stats are simply below average. It is normal for young players to struggle with efficiency but these measures have me extremely skeptical of Reddish (and Culver) ever becoming a good starter in the NBA. I know it might seem extreme to write off a 20 year old after his rookie year but these numbers having me thinking Reddish's ceiling is mostly likely as fair bench player.

67. Dejounte Murray
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.58 (1.0)
2020 BPM Score: 0.61 (0.4) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.11 (0.074)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.51 (720)
Final Score: 0.16

-It's a disappointment to see Dejounte Murray this low in the rankings since some (including myself) have had high hopes for him over his 3 year career. Unfortunately, his advanced stats stagnated from last year to this year and that leaves him with relatively pedestrian measures for this 2020 list. Dejounte is on the older side of this group now and he has yet to truly breakout in efficiency or volume. As with everyone on this list, there is still time to progress but, this season, Murray was about average.

70. Aaron Gordon
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.58 (1.0)
2020 BPM Score: 0.46 (0.0) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.11 (0.087)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.95 (894)
Final Score: 0.13

-Compared to his peers on this list, Aaron Gordon produced an above average volume and fairly positive advanced stats. However, Gordon is among the oldest here so stronger numbers are to be expected. That leaves Gordon with this average placement. At this stage in his career, Aaron's numbers are not bad but they are not exciting either. Ultimately, it seems like Gordon is destined to be an average starter for an average NBA, which is essentially what he has been in Orlando.

72. Malik Monk
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.46 (-0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.37 (-2.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.85 (0.028)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.12 (564)
Final Score: 0.12

-Here we have another young player with an average volume and subpar advanced stats. Malik Monk was a high upside lottery pick in the 2017 draft but 3 years into his career, his growth has been minimal. His volume and efficiency have trended very slightly up each year but we have yet to see any big steps forward that you'd hope from these young guns. Monk ranks here towards the middle because, while he is still younger than most (and, therefore, possesses more potential to develop), his production has continued to be lackluster.

73. Darius Garland
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -1.97 (-1.7)
2020 BPM Score: -1.56 (-5.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -1.85 (-0.034)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.53 (728)
Final Score: 0.11

-Like with Monk, Reddish and Culver, Darius Garland falls in this range because he is young and produced fair volume but got no love from the advanced stats. It is common for young players to struggle with their efficiency in the NBA, especially when they are taking on decent volume. Thus, it can be difficult to know what to make of numbers like these because there is potential for a player like Garland to go anywhere from here. Maybe he improves his efficiency while taking on even more volume in his coming seasons, maybe he stagnates in every way. Ultimately, Garland's rookie campaign was a mixed bag, which ranks him here.

79. Kendrick Nunn
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.46 (-0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.37 (-2.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.51 (0.049)
2020 Total Points Score: 1.28 (1024)
Final Score: 0.01

-It was a fun rookie season for the undrafted Kendrick Nunn who saw starter's minutes and garnered some ROTY buzz early on. However, for the purposes of this list, Nunn's 2020 season was actually about average. Kendrick was able to put up a good amount of points but his advanced stats were slightly below average. Plus, despite being a rookie, Nunn is actually a senior on this list so his room for growth might be smaller than you'd expect. Nunn us still a success story since he has proven himself to be a rotation player in the league but that is probably about it.

81. Kevin Knox
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -1.03 (-0.7)
2020 BPM Score: -1.05 (-4.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -1.19 (0.007)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.24 (419)
Final Score: 0.01

-Kevin Knox's final score here is as close to average as it gets and really, his only saving grace here is his youth. Knox is still only 20 but his stats are bad enough to offset that sheen. Knox posted a below average point total and significantly poor advanced stats. It's nice to see his advanced numbers improve from his rookie season (even though they are still bad) but his volume was reduced. Overall, it has been a rough start to Kevin Knox's career and he needs to improve significantly in the next couple of seasons if he wants to avoid the "bust" label.

89. Marvin Bagley III
2020 Age Score: 1.45 (20y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.46 (-0.1)
2020 BPM Score: -0.80 (-3.5) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.48 (0.051)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.83 (185)
Final Score: -0.07

-2020 was a lost season for Marvin Bagley, who played in only 13 games before being sidelined with an injury. That definitely hits Bagley's volume and overall ranking here but doesn't explain why his advanced stats are worse than his rookie season. I don't feel good critiquing someone who is injured and MB3's ranking would certainly be higher if he had played a full season but I do think there is more holding him back here. I was never high on Bagley and while I do think this rank is harsh, I doubt I'll ever see him in the top 25.

93. Sekou Doumbouya
2020 Age Score: 2.12 (19y)

2020 VORP Score: -1.22 (-0.9)
2020 BPM Score: -1.96 (-6.7) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -1.62 (-0.020)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.69 (243)
Final Score: -0.12

-It was an up and down rookie season for Doumbouya, who saw time as a starter as well as in the G League. Sekou's volume is not good and his advanced stats are particularly rough but his saving grace is that he is still a teenager. Because of that, there is still plenty of opportunity for growth. It is hard to say what Doumbouya will do with his next few seasons since his rookie year was all over the place but a 19-year-old that showed flashes of starter-level competence clearly has upside.

97. Lonnie Walker
2020 Age Score: 0.79 (21y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.74 (-0.4)
2020 BPM Score: -0.80 (-3.5) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -1.04 (0.016)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.32 (389)
Final Score: -0.15

-Lonnie Walker's sophomore year was a minimal step forward. He saw a minor increase in volume (after basically no volume last year) and a slight step backwards in his advanced stats. Really, besides his slight youth, there isn't much here to be excited about. Unfortunately, it looks like Walker will have to take a big step forward next year to keep up with his peers and, given what we've seen from him so far, that seems fairly unlikely.

101. Luke Kennard
2020 Age Score: -0.55 (23y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.01 (0.4)
2020 BPM Score: 0.36 (-0.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.32 (0.100)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.19 (442)
Final Score: -0.17

-Luke Kennard was having a nice little season until it was cut short by injuries. He is on the older side but Kennard was on pace for an above average volume and his advanced stats are fairly positive. We'll see if Kennard can stay healthy in Los Angeles but if he can while continuing to improve his production, Luke might truly establish himself as a low-end starter.

111. Kyle Kuzma
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.56 (-0.2)
2020 BPM Score: -0.48 (-2.6) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -0.28 (0.063)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.67 (782)
Final Score: -0.23

-As the only Laker eligible for this list, Kuzma had a checkered season. His volume was fine but his advanced stats were not. Meanwhile, Kuzma is the oldest age possible for this ranking so there probably aren't any major leaps forward in his future. I have never been much of a Kuzma believer but this season seals it for me. Kyle Kuzma can be a fair rotation scorer but he probably won't ever contribute much beyond that.

116. Jabari Parker
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: 0.10 (0.5)
2020 BPM Score: 0.57 (0.3) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.04 (0.083)
2020 Total Points Score: 0.04 (531)
Final Score: -0.28

-What a fall from grace for a former #2 overall pick. It's actually pretty hard to believe that Jabari is the same age as Kuzma since Parker has been in the league for 6 seasons, played for 5 teams and suffered multiple major injuries. Unfortunately, Parker already feels like a washed-up veteran despite still qualifying for this list. Jabari had some very good seasons in the past and even though his numbers are not what they once were, they all do remain slightly above average. It is unlikely that Jabari will reach the high hopes he entered the league with or even return to the form of his 2017 campaign but I remain hopeful that he can stick around and contribute solid rotation minutes to any team.

140. Jahlil Okafor
2020 Age Score: -1.22 (24y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.18 (0.2)
2020 BPM Score: 0.39 (-0.2) 
2020 WS/48 Score: 0.85 (0.133)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.69 (243)
Final Score: -0.54

-Here we have another former high lottery pick (#3) that feels like he's been around awhile despite being only 24 years old. Clearly Jahlil's days as a starter are behind him but, even though his volume has diminished greatly, his advanced stats have developed into something fairly passable. This might be faint praise but it looks like Okafor has established himself as a rosterable NBA player that won't be washing out of the league after all. It may not be much but it's something.

166. Dennis Smith Jr.
2020 Age Score: 0.12 (22y)

2020 VORP Score: -0.93 (-0.6)
2020 BPM Score: -1.74 (-6.1) 
2020 WS/48 Score: -2.58 (-0.079)
2020 Total Points Score: -0.83 (187)
Final Score: -0.82

-As we reach the end of our list, we see injury-shorted seasons, fringe NBA players and fallen lottery promises. DSJ was once considered one of the best prospect of the 2017 draft by some. However, his career never really got going in a meaningful way and his opportunity as a developing prospect has already seemed to pass him by. It is unfortunate to see a 22-year-old already written off as a probable bust but his stats are just bad here. There is always a chance that someone his age can turn things around and become a decent rotation player, but even that is looking grim at this point.