'16 Playoff Predictions - #1 Team nipple versus #4 Por Favors

Fantasy Points Per Week: NIPP – 1087, PF – 917

Fantasy Points Per Game: NIPP – 31.8, PF – 28.3

Games In Week One: NIPP – 33, PF – 37

Projected Games in Week Two: NIPP – 35, PF – 37

Personnel Notes:

NIPP – Jimmy Butler (Day to day), Shelvin Mack (Added 2/28/16)

PF – Kristaps Porzingis (Day to day), Danilo Gallinari (Out one month to Season), Kobe Bryant (Day to day), Mike Conley (day to day)

The next step won't be so easy.

The excitement just keeps coming. The best season in franchise history for either team, two dominate playoff victories, two of the strongest team identities in the league, and that's just so far. So who gets to go to the finals for the first time?

In one corner, we have this season's highest scoring Point Guard, Small Forward and Center all on the same team. In the other corner, we have a squad containing 12 players averaging 25+ fppg in their last 30. Team nipple has a strong supporting cast around their Big Three. In fact, Milsap, Butler, and Gannis give this team more of a Big Six vibe. Meanwhile, even though Por Favors leads the league in 25+ guys, only one of those 12 players is averaging 35+ (Melo).

So let's see if we can find some sort of bottom line here. Going off of last 30s, Team nipple's entire squad is averaging 28.9 fppg, while their bet 10 guys are averaging 35.0 fppg. Meanwhile, Por Favors' coinciding numbers are 27.7 fppg and 30.7 fppg. So, depending on how much you think the bench matters, Chris's point producing advantage lies somewhere between 4 and 1 point per game. That range is rather large actually; it means the difference between a 300 point victory and a coin-flip finish.

Another way we can see the bench coming into play here is in the game advantage. Despite Gallinari, Kobe, and Conley all sporting red letters on the Por Favors bench, Nathaniel was still able to grab a pretty sizable game advantage. This tilts the scales to just about even, with Team nipple projected to score 2162 and Por Favor projected to score 2094. That's just about as close as they come.

Should I tie up most of my money in keeping my stars? How valuable is a strong bench? Is streaming a viable option in this league?

How this all plays out will give us insight into a lot of burning questions and maybe even define a new meta game for this league as a whole. I can't wait.

Last round, Por Favors threw up a very impressive 2096 while Team nipple totaled a slightly more impressive 2342. While it seems like those numbers might easily be swapped after two weeks, I will only believe it when I see it. I'm not betting against a team with five 40+ guys.

Prediction: Team nipple

'16 Playoff Predictions - #4 Por Favors versus #5 Balls to the Wall

Fantasy Points Per Week: PF – 900, BTTW – 856

Fantasy Points Per Game: PF – 28.0, BTTW – 25.5

Games In Week One: PF – 37, BTTW – 35

Projected Games in Week Two: PF – 34, BTTW – 36

Personnel Notes:

PF – Monta Ellis (Acquired in trade involving Willie Cauley-Stein) and George Hill (Acquired in the same trade)

BTTW – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out of Season), and Nikola Mirotic (Out 2 to 3 weeks)

Who will elevate to Round 2?

Before I get into the analysis of this matchup, I would like to take a moment to congratulate Brett on an extremely successful first regular season in our great league. Taking a team that has never gotten higher than 8^th place and turning it into a legitimate contender is not easily done. Especially for someone who is new to how we do things.

And as a reward for all of his hard work, Balls to the Wall will be facing Por Favors in the first round.

Por Favors is not unfamiliar with this position. In the last 3 seasons, they have been 6th seed, the 3rd seed and the 8th seed and, somehow, have finished 6th all three years. Every year, they have been good, but have been missing that je ne sais quoi to propel them into becoming a great team.

While Por Favors might lack the overwhelming superstar power of Team nipple, The Defending Champions, or Pippen Aint Eazy, this team may have finally found their calling card: the best bench in the league.

And now that we are in the playoffs, that critical asset only becomes more critical. It is not often that a team plays 35 games and is still at a game disadvantage, but that is the position that Balls to the Wall is in. And with guys like Gallinari, Conely, and Kobe ready on the bench, I doubt Por Favors is going to relinquish that advantage in week two.

Unfortunately for Balls to the wall, this point is escalated by the injuries to MKG and Mirotic.

On top of all that, Por Favors have really seemed to come together as of late, sporting 2332 fantasy points in the final two matchups of the season.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, there is hope for Balls to the Wall. In the final two weeks, they have managed to score 2136 fantasy points. While that isn't as high as Por Favors, it still good enough for top 4 in the league. Meanwhile, Lowry, Wall, and Aldridge have all seen upticks from their season averages to their last 30 averages. All this indicates that BTTW will be bringing some heat of their own.

So what happens when two hot teams meet in the playoffs? Who gets their first franchise playoff win this year? As always, I'm going with the game advantage.

Prediction: Por Favors

'16 Playoff Predictions - #3 Admiral Kryptonite versus #6 MAMA said Knock you out

Fantasy Points Per Week: K – 911, MAMA – 817

Fantasy Points Per Game: K – 27.0, MAMA – 23.9

Games In Week One: K – 35, MAMA – 35

Projected Games in Week Two: K – 35, MAMA – 34

Personnel Notes:

K – Patrick Beverly (Added 1/31/16), Archie Goodwin (Added 1/31/16), and Willie Cauley-Stein (Acquired in trade involving Monta Ellis and George Hill), Devin Booker (Acquired in trade involving Rajon Rondo), Jerian Grant (Added 2/21/16)

MAMA – Stanley Johnson (Day to day), JaMychal Green (Added 2/21/16), Maurice Harkless (Added 2/21/16)

Can Klay Thompson help fuel an upset?

The most intriguing part of this matchup has to be how enigmatic these two teams are. Evolution has been the common theme here. Admiral Kryptonite has always been one of the more active teams in the transactions market and that is easily seen in the fact that Monta Ellis, George Hill, and Rajon Rondo have all been shipped off in the last month. Meanwhile, after starting 1-6, MAMA said Knock you out has won 8 of its last 9.

All of that is to say that even though Admiral Kryptonite has the clear advantage in both FPPW and FPPG on the season as whole, those numbers might be a bit misleading.

Furthermore, the game advantage seems to be basically nonexistent. So I guess we're going to have to take a closer look.

Last year, MAMA started the season red hot, with a record of 10-2 after 12 weeks, before stumbling in the final month. Despite that stumble, they finished 11-5 and held onto the #4 seed. From there, Rich put together a very nice run, averaging a hefty 1945 fantasy points across his 3 playoff matchups before falling to The-Soon-To-Be-Defending-Champions, Team Penetration in the championship.

The pattern with this team seems to be that they can go through spells of being very hot and very cold. Maybe that's just how it goes when your best players are shooting scorers like Klay Thompson and Gordon Hayward.

Meanwhile, despite what you might think with all the personnel changes, Admiral Kryptonite has had a rather consistent year. When looking at FPPW on the season, Admiral Kryptonite has the 3^rd lowest standard deviation and the 2^nd lowest range. Meaning, they stuck relatively close to their average FPPW all year.

But when your numbers are lower, inconsistency can be a good thing. For every bust, there is a boom. While it is not too unlikely that MAMA finishes this round with something in the range of 1350, it is just as likely that they drop something like 1950. And if its the latter, Admiral Kyrptonite is in from some trouble.

Over the last two matchups of the season, Admiral Kryptonite produced 1935 fantasy points while MAMA said Knock you out produced 1891.

In the end, I believe MAMA said Knock you out would have to step too far away from their average to overcome Admiral Kryptonite's consistency. And while this is certainly going be a close match, the conservative in me always like to take the consistent choice.

Also, I'm not afraid of any bitch ass jinx!

Prediction: Admiral Kryptonite

'16 Playoff Predictions - #2 Defending Champions, Team Penetration versus #7 Pippen Aint Eazy

Fantasy Points Per Week: PENE – 972, PEZY – 917

Fantasy Points Per Game: PENE – 28.4, MIN – 28.3

Games In Week One: PENE – 32, PEZY – 35

Projected Games in Week Two: PENE – 39, MIN – 35

Personnel Notes:

PENE – Eric Gordon (Out 2 to 4 weeks), Norris Cole (Added 1/31/16), Steven Adams (Added 1/31/16), and Gerald Henderson (Added 2/21/16)

PEZY – Tyreke Evans (Out for Season), Danny Green (Added 2/14/16)

Whose superstars will reign supreme?

I don't know if I've ever been more excited for a playoff series that I was not involved in. Over the 4 regular seasons of our dynasty league, these two teams have consistently been contenders. In those 4 years, The Defending Champs have averaged 918 fantasy points a week while Pippen Aint Eazy has averaged 932. Both of these teams have made the playoffs all for years and of the 21 total playoff wins available so far, these two teams account for 9 of them.

And yet, they have never met in the playoffs before.

Pippen Aint Eazy has had some rotten luck this year. Despite putting up the third most fantasy points on the year, they are somehow 7^th in the standings. You could say Our Defending Champions are experiencing some bad luck too, considering they have to play such a big threat so early in the playoffs.

These two teams have almost identical fantasy production on a per game basis, but Team Penetration has the edge when we look at points per week. I suspect this is because of Michael's ability to find solid streaming options for the weaker parts of his lineup. What this means is that guys like Alex Len and Enes Kanter may be dragging down Team Penetration's FPPG, but they are being maximized by being played only on weeks where they have a lot of games. Meanwhile, Pippen Aint Eazy has a much more solidified starting lineup and we can probably expect Freddy to rely on the same 10 guys the rest of the way.

So how will these two different styles play out? It's all going to come down to whose Big 3 performs better. Just last week, we saw what kind of superstar strength these two teams have with Lillard throwing up 70 fantasy points last Friday and Anthony Davis topping that two days later with 86. No offense to the other 14 guys involved in this match up, but when you are dealing with numbers that high, its hard to see production of Jae Crowder or Zaza Pachulia as the deal breakers.

Over the next two weeks DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden, and Anthony Davis play a total of 20 games while Paul George, Steph Curry, and Damian Lillard are playing 23. That may not seem like much, but those are 3 extra opportunities for a 50+ game. That alone is going to be tough for the Defending Champions to overcome.

In addition all that, Pippen Aint Eazy actually has the overall game advantage this week and, while Team Penetration is set to make that up next week, Pippen Aint Eazy always has the option of making some lineup changes to sustain or even improve that advantage.

With two team this elite and this comparable on paper, it's the details that make the difference. It's going to be a barn burner and it is going to be close as hell, but my money is always going to be on the game advantage.

Prediction: Pippen Aint Eazy

'16 Playoff Predicitions - #1 Team nipple versus #8 Make It Nashty

Fantasy Points Per Week: NIPP – 1076, MIN – 870

Fantasy Points Per Game: NIPP – 31.5, MIN – 26.9

Games In Week One: NIPP – 33, MIN – 35

Projected Games in Week Two: NIPP – 35, MIN – 36

Personnel Notes:

NIPP – Jimmy Butler (Out 2 to 3 weeks), Jamal Crawford (Added 2/7/16), Jerami Grant (Added 2/14/16), and Lance Stephenson (Added 2/12/16)

MIN – Eric Bledsoe (Out for Season), Rajon Rondo (Acquired in trade involving Devin Booker)

Will the addition of Rondo and the subtraction of Butler make a big enough impact?

It was February 23^rd of 2015 when Round One of our beloved Fantasy Playoffs began and it was on that day that these two teams met as the 2-7 matchup. Team nipple had finished the season with a 12-4 record and had put up a combined 2188 total fantasy points over the final two weeks of the regular season. Meanwhile, Make It Nashty finished with a much less impressive 7-9 record and a total of 1432 fantasy points in that same stretch.

For those of you who don't remember (David) or those of you who choose to forget (Chris), the result over the next two weeks told a much different story. Team nipple was slammed with an almost comical amount of injuries that were exemplified by the absence of both Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant. While Make It Nashty was experiencing a rather warm streak (with nobody contributing less than 134 fantasy points over the two week span), Team nipple saw dud performances from Andrea Bargnani (67 points), Jusuf Nurkic (39 points) and Tyson Chandler (16 points). Despite a superhuman showing from Russell Westbrook (398 points), Make It Nashty was able to execute the upset by putting up 1921 fantasy points to Team nipple's 1814.

A lot has changed in a year. Team nipple has only furthered its cause, completing possibly the most dominate regular season this league has ever seen. Improving in every category with a record of 15-1, a season average of 1076 fantasy points per week and 2426 fantasy points over the final two weeks. In comparison, Make It Nashty is sporting a record of 7-9, a season average of 870, and a total of 1786 points in those same two weeks.

But is upset magic in the air once again? In the last few weeks, we've seen a swing of Team nipple losing Jimmy Butler and Make It Nashty adding Rajon Rondo. Those are two rather significant sources of fantasy points (with Butler averaging 34.9 on the year and Rondo averaging 32.8) and should not be taken lightly. Also MIN seems to have the advantage on games once again, although it is a slim advantage.

Despite all that, I do not think history will be repeating itself. While Butler's injury is certainly a blow, Jamal Crawford has stepped in nicely (averaging 26.8 fantasy points over the last two weeks) as a temporary solution. And while Rondo and the game advantage will be nice boosts that will definitely make this matchup exciting for a time, I do not think they will be enough to overcome the likes of Andre Drummond, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook.

Prediction: Team nipple

Week 4 Power Rankings

Week 4 Power Rankings

 Before we get into things, I want to show you guys something:

This is a typical Bell Curve. It is a visualization of most data distributions (a frequency map). The middle (0) is the exact average. The curve drops down on either side (as the numbers get further away from 0), displaying that the further you get away from the average, the rarer you become.

The season is early, but this is my best statistical guess of how good your team looks this year. It is meant to be unbiased, but, of course, it is based off of what my biases consider important.


The data pool is small, the science is imperfect, and I have a degree in Kinesiology. Here we go ;)

• #12 - Nick Coromelas: -1.42
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.70
•  Record: 0-4
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -1.60
•  Games Played: -2.30
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -1.26
• #11 - Rich Mamaradlo: -1.15
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.08
•  Record: 0-4
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -1.11
•  Games Played: 0.58
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -1.39
• #10 - David Huckobey: -1.13
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -1.15
•  Record: 1-3
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -1.28
•  Games Played: -0.38
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -1.37
• #9 - Brett Lakey: -0.34
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -1.74
•  Record: 3-1
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -0.67
•  Games Played: -0.86
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -0.52
• #8 - Brett Hoxie: -0.26
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.51
•  Record: 1-3
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): -0.12
•  Games Played: -0.14
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -0.09
• #7 - Danny Leong: 0.06
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.16
•  Record: 2-2
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.08
•  Games Played: -0.14
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.15
• #6 - Matt Wong: 0.20
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 1.19
•  Record: 2-2
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.18
•  Games Played: 1.30
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): -0.14
• #5 - Freddy Cruz: 0.48
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -1.34
•  Record: 3-1
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.54
•  Games Played: -0.62
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.83
• #4 - Nathaniel Coromelas: 0.54
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.11
•  Record: 3-1
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.48
•  Games Played: 0.1
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.53
• #3 - Michael Johnson: 0.59
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 1.17
•  Record: 2-2
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.78
•  Games Played: 0.58
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.73
• #2 - August Keller: 0.93
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): 0.94
•  Record: 3-1
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 0.99
•  Games Played: 1.30
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 0.75
• #1 - Chris Nelson: 1.51
•  Schedule Difficulty (Thus far): -0.63
•  Record: 4-0
•  Fantasy Points Per Week (FPPW): 1.73
•  Games Played: 0.58
• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG): 1.79

Week 1 FPPG Rankings

Hello everyone, I hope you're doing well! What I have for you today is a ranking of everyone's fantasy points per game for the first week of this year. I imagine this is a much better way of measuring where you stand with everyone this year.

Just to give you a few reference points, here are a few marks based off of the 3 completed seasons of this league so far:

-The average team has finished the season with 23.76 FPPG

-The average playoff team finished the season with 24.87 FPPG

-The average top 3 teams from each year finished with 26.55 FPPG

I would also like to point out that there is a lot more to all of this than just FPPG. Bench, injury concerns, contracts, youth, and free agency all play factors in all this.

Anyways, without further ado...

#12 – Rich (MAMA) – 20.0 FPPG

Highlights: Horford (4 games, 132 points) and Chris Paul (3 games, 92 points)

Lowlights: Stanley Johnson (3 games, 42 points) and Joakim Noah (4 games, 56 points)

The most disappointing thing here is probably Thompson (17 FPPG), honestly. But we all know that isn't going to last. Noah's new role in Chicago is definitely cause for concern, especially with Mirotic playing the way he has. Overall though, a lot of this can be chalked up to variance and should be taken with a grain of salt.

#11 – David (BB) – 22.1 FPPG

Highlights: Millsap (4 games, 136 points) and Kevin Love (3 games, 113 points)

Lowlights: Kyle Korver (4 games, 45 points) and Mitch McGary (3 games, -2 points)

If anything, the fact that this team was able to finish in any place besides 12^th bodes well for the 9 starters that weren't McGary (Those guys averaged 24.7 FPPG, which would have placed this team at 7^th). Once this team fixes that issue at Center, it should be back in this.

#10 – Brett Lakey (WO) – 23.5 FPPG

Highlights: Mirotic (4 games, 108 points) and Kyle Lowry (3 games, 102)

Lowlights: Wiggins (2 games, 29 points) and Doug McDermott (4 games, 39 points)

Very interesting start for the most intriguing team in the league. Sporting some of the most promising young players there are (Wiggins, Okafor, and MCW), things are all over the place. Young guys are inconsistent by nature and this is a small sample size. Only time will tell as these guys play into their NBA games.

#9 – Daniel (MIN) – 23.58 FPPG

Highlights: DeRozan (3 games, 97 points) and Bledsoe (3 games, 101 points)

Lowlights: David Lee (3 games, 42 points) and Evan Turner (3 games, 28 points)

Boston is a fantasy nightmare right now (outside of Thomas, that is) and that has definitely affected poor Danny, here. Also, his guys all played 3 games which might have something to do with them not playing their best (less games to find a rhythm).

#8 – Matt (MONT) – 24.4 FPPG

Highlights: Pau Gasol (4 games, 114 points) and LeBron James (3 games, 107 points)

Lowlights: Trevor Ariza (3 games, 54 points) and Tony Parker (3 games, 36 points)

The first thing I notice when looking at this roster is how many role players there are. Everyone needs role players to fill out their roster and none of these role players are particularly bad in their own right, but there seems to be a few too much on this roster. The team just lacks a little bite at the moment. If Matt wants to see this ranking go up at all, he may need to find a way to trade up a few of his guys.

#7 – Nick (TAD) – 24.7 FPPG

Highlights: Vucevic (3 games, 104 points) and Greg Monroe (3 games, 112 points)

Lowlights: Jrue Holiday (2 games, 40 points) and Parsons (1 games, 10 points)

There were some injuries here that clearly affected things. Besides Freddy, this team clocked the fewest games. Those two facts simply add to already long shadow that variance casts. As of right now, this team strikes me as the standard for “league average”, but obviously that could change.

#6 – Michael (PENE) – 25.2 FPPG

Highlights: Cousins (3 games, 110 points) and Anthony Davis (3 games, 120 points)

Lowlights: Meyers Leonard (3 games, 42 points) and Paul Pierce (3 games, 37 points)

A rather ho-hum start for the defending champs. Now, obviously 25.2 and #6 are nothing to be ashamed of, but my standards for Michael are high. Harden had a tough week (by his standards). But maybe the fact that he drafted Paul Pierce caused a rip in the universe and gave him some bad ju-ju.

#5 – Brett Hoxie (BLOW) – 25.3 FPPG

Highlights: Kawhi Leonard (3 games, 109 points) and Blake Griffin (3 games, 138 points)

Lowlights: Ty Lawson (3 games, 50 points) and Mario Hezonja (3 games, 16 points)

Outside of Hezonja, this team average 27.6 FPPG which speaks volumes for how good this team could be very soon. Once Brett figures out that last swingman spot, he will be sitting pretty. Griffin is playing like an absolute monster so far.

#4 – Nate (PF) – 27.3 FPPG

Highlights: Carmelo (3 games, 112 points) and Favors (3 games, 115 points)

Lowlights: Porzingis (3 games, 59 points) and Danny Green (3 games, 47 points)

What's impressive about this team is how strong the “Lowlights” are. Porzingis still averaged nearly 20 FPPG after all. This may a bit early to claim, but clearly this is one of the teams to look out for this year, seeing as they might have a strong shot at the title.

#3 – Gus (8==D) – 27.96 FPPG

Highlights: DeAndre Jordan (3 games, 110 points) and John Wall (3 games, 114 points)

Lowlights: Tim Duncan (3 games, 64 points) and Monta Ellis (3 games, 50 points)

I'm never a fan of analyzing my own team in these things... so I won't ;)

#2 – Freddy (PEZY) – 28.0 FPPG

Highlights: STEPH FUCKING CURRY (3 games, 166 points) and Damien Lillard (3 games, 100 points)

Lowlights: P.J. Tucker (3 games, 24 points) and Wilson Chandler (0 games, 0 points)

Leave it to Freddy to have one of the most promising 0-1 starts in our league's history. The most optimistic thing about this good situation is how easily Freddy can upgrade. Just looking at his lowlights, I'm sure he can fix that with his bench alone, not to mention a couple FA pickups. Oh btw, Steph Curry is a goddamn beast.

#1 – Chris (NIPP) – 34.6 FPPG

Highlights: Andre Drummond (3 games, 132 points) and Russell Westbrook (3 games, 149 points)

Lowlights: Antetokounmpo (2 games, 71 points) and Tyson Chandler (3 games, 67 points)

If anyone is curious about who the team to beat is, here you go. It is always important to not overreact to the first week of fantasy, but just look at that FPPG. His team is literally an outlier. If you take the average of everyone else in Week 1, you get 24.7 FPPG. Meaning, Chris is beating the rest of us by about 10 fantasy points per game. No big deal.

Here's a chart!